057
FXUS64 KMRX 290750
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 207 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Dry and colder weather continues through much of today.

- A system will bring a return of rain chances and gusty winds for
  the mountains and foothills tonight into Sunday. Higher
  elevation areas may see a brief wintry mix early Sunday and
  again Sunday night, but impacts are forecast to be minimal or
  none.

- Another system will bring gusty mountain winds and
  precipitation to the area Monday night through Tuesday. Some
  northern areas, including higher elevations of southwest
  Virginia, may begin as snow Monday night. All rain is expected
  Tuesday with a gradual changeover to snow late Tuesday across
  higher elevations.

- Dry again Wednesday and Thursday with precipitation chances
  increasing once again Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Surface high pressure currently influencing the southern and central
Appalachians will be forced eastwards by an upper trough swinging
into the Ohio Valley region later this evening. Isentropic ascent
will lead to increasing mid-level clouds and some virga or very
light rain late this evening. A southwesterly LLJ near 45 to 50
knots developing this evening into early Sunday morning will also
promote gusty winds across the mountains and immediate foothills.
Direction is not great, and the strongest of the jet core is well
over northeastern KY, trending this mountain wind event more
marginal in nature. A Wind Advisory has been introduced for our
mountain zones for gusts between 45 to 55mph. This comes to an end
at sunrise Sunday, when the jet lifts northeast with weakening
flow becoming parallel to the spine of the Appalachians.


Precip chances will also be increasing early Sunday morning but
persist through the mid-afternoon. The strong WAA will keep rain
the predominant precip type, though, a non-impactful light wintry
mix will be possible in the highest elevations of the mountains
for a very brief period at precip onset. Little to no impacts are
expected. The quick moving wave will allow for rain chances to
dwindle though the late afternoon and into the evening hours
Sunday.

Continued cool but dry conditions are expected Monday as secondary
system develops across the southeast Monday night into Tuesday.
Latest NAM has both stronger flow and more favorable southerly
direction of the H85 jet. Paired with a tighter pressure gradient
associated with the Miller A type system, an additional mountain
wave event is possible, potentially of greater magnitude. There
is still some potential the position of the LLJ trends further
south and east(as depicted by the Euro) which could limit that
threat. Something we will monitor closely, nonetheless.
Temperatures across the valley locations will favor predominately
rain once again. Far northeast Tennessee mountains and higher
terrain of southwest Virgina have the potential to see a light
wintry mix or freezing rain, however, confidence is fairly low at
this time because WAA and downslope warming associated with the
aforementioned LLJ may hinder CAD from spilling into our
northeastern zones. Have kept very limited accumulations because
of this.

Rain gradually comes to an end Tuesday evening, with light orographic
snow possible in the brief northwest flow behind the departing
system. A drier period under the influence of high-pressure mid
week may be disturbed by an additional system Friday into the
weekend. However, considerable disagreements still exist between
deterministic models and uncertainty is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 207 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light
and more variable at TRI and TYS, while southeasterly winds with
gusts near 20kts will return to CHA. Winds will gradually shift
S-SEly at TRI/TYS into the evening. Increasing mid-level cloud
deck is expected by the evening, with the potential for some virga
across the rain. Rain chances will likely be introduced at the
tail end of the next TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             51  40  50  28 /   0  50  60  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  49  37  49  26 /   0  50  60   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       48  37  48  25 /   0  50  50   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              49  33  46  22 /   0  30  50   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99