Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
167 FXUS64 KMRX 131123 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 723 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 716 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected this week. - Rain chances will return at some point this weekend with a system approaching from the west. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the East Coast with a closed low over the Northeast and a closed low over the Carolina Coast. The ridge centered over Texas is starting to build into the Tennessee Valley today. At the surface, a low is off the coast of the Carolinas and another is off the DELMARVA Coast. High pressure is building into the Central U.S. from Canada. Our region will remain dry this week with ridging and high pressure moving in as the East Coast system moves farther out to sea. Guidance is picking up on the possibility of rain this weekend with the ridge breaking down as a system approaches. Cold frontal passage looks likely late in the weekend or early next week, although it is still very far out. Temps will be slightly warmer as the ridge builds into the region but temps will still be pleasant with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s for the Tennessee Valley. With a dry air mass in place and clear skies for most nights, lows will be mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 716 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Patchy river fog on morning satellite, though no impacts at the terminals, a rapidly decreasing chance fog could still form near KTRI in the next 1 hour or so. Otherwise VFR conditions and dry weather is expected through the period once more, with light northerly winds. Patchy fog is again possible after 09z tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 56 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 52 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 76 53 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 48 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington