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FXUS06 KWBC 081902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue July 08 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 18 2025

At the outset of the 6-10 day period, mid-level ridging is forecast across the
eastern Pacific and northeastern North America, with a broad, shallow trough
predicted over the north-central CONUS. By day-10, the mid-level height maximum
is forecast to shift eastward into the Four Corners, and the longwave troughing
is predicted to weaken across central Canada. The 6-10 day manual 500-hPa
height blend depicts above-normal heights across the western third of the
CONUS, as well as across the Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic. Closer to normal heights are forecast across the
central CONUS and the Southeast. A more variable mid-level pattern is forecast
across Alaska, with troughing over the eastern Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska at
the outset of the period, followed by some amplification of the ridge axis
across the eastern Pacific and troughing potentially rebuilding over the Bering
Sea. For the period as a whole, near-normal heights are predicted across the
state, except for the southern portions of Southeast Alaska and the far western
Aleutians where weakly above-normal heights are forecast.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast across
eastern and western portions of the CONUS consistent with ridging over both
regions and strong signals in the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools. The ECENS
reforecast tool and uncalibrated guidance support increased probabilities for
below-normal temperatures across the central CONUS. This is also supported by
teleconnections as well as increased soil moisture across the Central and
Southern Plains. The uncalibrated ECENS also depicts enhanced chances of
below-normal temperatures across the Southeast during the period which may be
tied to a potential shortwave feature drifting westward across Florida and near
the Gulf Coast. However, given the warmer ECENS reforecast tool and GEFS,
probabilities for above-normal temperatures remain elevated but are lower
compared to farther north. Across Alaska, probabilities for below-normal
temperatures are increased across southern parts of the state, supported by
strong signals in the uncalibrated tools. However, the GEFS and ECENS
reforecast tools support increasing chances for above-normal temperatures
across northern Mainland Alaska. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal
temperatures are forecast across Hawaii supported by the consolidated forecast
tool.

Intermittent frontal activity continues to favor broadly weak probabilities for
above-normal precipitation from the Rockies eastward. The ridge axis placement
over eastern North America supports high moisture content across the East,
further aided by weak troughing upstream across the Midwest and enhanced
southerly mid-level flow downstream. This favors elevated chances of daily
precipitation, possibly further enhanced by a slow moving front along the East
Coast and a surface feature drifting across the Southeast and Gulf Coast during
the period. The GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools also support enhanced
probabilities of above-normal precipitation across southern portions of the
Southwest into the Great Plains as tropical moisture is potentially pulled
northward into the aforementioned frontal systems, with stronger monsoon
activity more likely beyond day-10 across the Southwest. Ridging over the East
Pacific supports increased probabilities of below-normal precipitation across
portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. Enhanced onshore flow
supports elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities for most of Alaska.
Above-normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, with the exception of the
Big Island where near-normal precipitation is favored.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
model agreement regarding the evolution of the mid-level pattern, offset by
some differences in the temperature guidance across the Midwest and Southeast,
as well as weak signals for enhanced precipitation.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22 2025

A broad ridge axis is forecast to expand across the CONUS during week-2, with a
594-dm mid-level height maximum depicted across the Four Corners in the manual
height blend. Broad +30 meter positive height anomalies are indicated across
much of the northern half of the CONUS (greater than +60 meters across the
Northeast). Near-normal heights continue to be favored across the central and
southeastern states. Ridging and an associated strengthening surface high are
forecast across the eastern Pacific, with gradual weakening of troughing over
the Bering Sea. As a result, above-normal heights are depicted in the manual
blend across the Aleutians and southwestern Mainland Alaska. Near-normal
heights are predicted across the remainder of the state.

Above-normal temperatures are favored across most of the western and eastern
thirds of the CONUS during week-2, with the highest chances (greater than 50
percent) across portions of the Northwest and Northeast. There is still a weak
signal for below-normal temperatures across the Great Plains in the ECENS
reforecast tool, but the broadening ridge axis favors a warming trend as seen
in the uncalibrated guidance supporting a forecast of near-normal temperatures.
A combination of increasing monsoon moisture and increased soil moisture favor
slightly enhanced chances of below-normal temperatures across portions of the
Southwest through the central High Plains. The uncalibrated GEFS and ECENS
continue to support enhanced probabilities for below-normal temperatures across
southern Alaska. Above-normal temperature chances are increased across most of
northern Alaska due to good agreement among most of the forecast tools. The
consolidated forecast tool continues to favor elevated probabilities of
above-normal temperatures across Hawaii.

Monsoon activity is forecast to increase across the Southwest as the ridge axis
shifts into a favorable position over the Four Corners by the second half of
the period. This results in chances for above-normal precipitation increasing
above 50 percent over parts of Arizona. To the north, near- to below-normal
precipitation chances are elevated across portions of the West Coast and Great
Basin. Weakly enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation remain
favored across most of the remainder of the CONUS due to continued periodic
shortwave activity, with the highest week-2 precipitation totals focused across
the Gulf Coast and lower Eastern Seaboard tied to the slow moving frontal
system discussed in the 6-10 day outlook. Above-normal precipitation chances
are increased across Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, with near- to
below-normal precipitation favored across Southeast Alaska supported by the
ECENS and GEFS reforecast tools. Near-normal precipitation is favored across
Hawaii, with the consolidated forecast tool depicting a drying trend during
week-2.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to models
depicting an emerging low amplitude, stable pattern, offset by weak signals in
the precipitation tools.

FORECASTER: Thomas Collow

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060618 - 19790720 - 19520701 - 20060710 - 19940715


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19790719 - 20060617 - 20050701 - 19520630 - 20050626


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 14 - 18 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 16 - 22 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$