912
FXUS06 KWBC 151901
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Wed October 15 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 21 - 25 2025

The ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble models broadly agree on the 500-hPa
height pattern over North America and surrounding regions during the 610 day
period, with only minor variations among the models in the amplitude and phase
of predicted wave features. The manual height blend is based on ensemble means,
weighting the ECMWF model more heavily due to its recent anomaly correlation
skill. The manual blend indicates a deep trough with below-normal mean 500-hPa
heights over the Bering Sea, extending southeastward to the Gulf of Alaska and
the Pacific Northwest. Another trough with negative 500-hPa height anomalies is
forecast over the northeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), while ridging is
forecast over the western and south-central CONUS. Generally below-normal
500-hPa heights are forecast for Alaska as a trough approaches from the Bering
Sea. Near- to slightly below-normal 500-hPa heights are predicted in the
vicinity of Hawaii.

Near-normal temperatures are likely across most of the western CONUS, supported
by most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools. Elevated chances of
above-normal temperatures are forecast for most of the central and eastern
CONUS, except for parts of the Middle Atlantic where near-normal temperatures
are indicated under slightly below-normal 500-hPa heights. Probabilities of
above-normal temperatures exceed 60 percent across southern Texas, consistent
with observed above-normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent
Gulf. Above-normal temperatures are likely across eastern mainland Alaska,
while near- to below-normal temperatures are favored over western mainland
Alaska and the Aleutians ahead of a trough predicted over the western Bering
Sea. However, near-normal temperatures are slightly favored for Southeast
Alaska, beneath modestly enhanced anomalous south to southeasterly mid-level
flow. Above-normal temperatures are also likely for Hawaii, consistent with
observed above-normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Above-normal precipitation is likely over Washington, Oregon, parts of Idaho,
Montana, Nevada, and northern and central California, due to a trough predicted
over the Gulf of Alaska. Above-normal precipitation is also favored for parts
of the Southwest, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, the Great Lakes,
and the northeastern region, while below-normal precipitation is forecast over
portions of the Southeast, the Northern and Central Rockies, and the Northern
and Central Plains, supported by most precipitation forecast tools. An active
pattern is likely across most of Alaska ahead of a deep mid-level trough
predicted over the western Bering Sea. Above-normal precipitation is also
favored for Hawaii, near a predicted mean mid-level low.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average (4 out of 5), due to
good agreement among ensemble model forecasts, offset by some differences among
temperature and precipitation forecast tools for certain areas.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 23 - 29 2025

During week 2, a transition to a lower-amplitude pattern is noted, as weak mean
500-hPa height anomalies are predicted across much of the Lower 48 states.
Farther north, an amplified trough is predicted over the Bering Sea.
Below-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast across the Pacific Northwest and the
Middle Atlantic, with modestly above-normal heights across the southwestern and
north-central CONUS. Below-normal 500-hPa heights are likely for much of Alaska
as the deep trough over the Bering Sea approaches the western mainland and
progresses southeastward toward the Gulf of Alaska. Strong anomalous ridging is
predicted downstream over the Davis Strait, signaling a likely transition to a
negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. A mid-level low is forecast
to persist in the vicinity of Hawaii.

Near- to above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS,
supported by most temperature forecast tools. Above-normal temperatures remain
favored across northeastern mainland Alaska, while below-normal temperatures
are more likely over the Aleutians and the west coast of the mainland as the
Bering Sea trough progresses southeastward toward the Gulf of Alaska later in
the period. Near-normal temperatures remain more likely for the interior of
western Alaska and Southeast Alaska due to the offsetting influences of weakly
enhanced southerly mean mid-level flow and predicted modestly below-normal
heights. Above-normal temperatures are also likely for Hawaii, especially
across the western and central islands, consistent with observed above-normal
SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Above-normal precipitation is favored across most of the western CONUS due to
predicted enhanced low-amplitude Pacific flow and embedded shortwave troughs.
Probabilities of above-normal precipitation exceed 60 percent across parts of
the Pacific Northwest, largely due to an approaching deep trough later in the
period. Above-normal precipitation is also favored across portions of
southwestern Texas and southern Florida due to predicted modestly enhanced
easterly or southeasterly low-level flow early in the period. Near- to
below-normal precipitation is favored for the remainder of the CONUS, supported
by most precipitation forecast tools. Near- to above-normal precipitation is
favored across Alaska as a deep mid-level trough progresses from the Bering Sea
southeastward toward the Gulf of Alaska. Above-normal precipitation is also
favored for Hawaii, near a predicted mean mid-level low.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average (3 out of 5), due to
good overall agreement on the mid-level height forecast, offset by a
de-amplifying pattern and weak signals in the precipitation tools for some
areas.

FORECASTER: Luke H

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
October 16.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 21 - 25 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 23 - 29 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$