406
FXUS06 KWBC 301902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Mon June 30 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 06 - 10 2025

The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble models agree on the general 500-hPa
height pattern over North America and surrounding regions, with a variable
pattern during the 6-10 day period and some differences in the temperature and
precipitation tools among models. The manual height blend is based on 0Z
ensemble means, weighing the ECMWF model greater due to recent model anomaly
correlation skill. The manual blend shows a mid-level trough over southwestern
Mainland Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. A trough and slightly negative 500-hPa
height anomalies are predicted near the central California coast. A ridge and
positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over most of the remaining
contiguous United States (CONUS). Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are
predicted across Hawaii in the manual blend of models.

Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for the eastern Aleutians and
parts of southwestern Mainland Alaska, under a predicted trough. Above normal
temperatures are favored over most of central and northern Mainland Alaska,
consistent with the temperature consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS
forecasts. Above normal temperatures are favored over most of the western
CONUS, excluding parts of California and the Southwest, under positive 500-hPa
height anomalies. Near normal temperatures are favored for most of California
and parts of the Southwest, under a predicted trough and with increased
cloudiness due to the flow of moisture into the region. Above normal
temperatures are likely over much of the eastern CONUS, consistent with the
Auto blend of temperature forecast tools. The temperature consolidation favors
above normal temperatures across most of the Hawaiian Islands, excluding the
southeastern Big Island, associated with above average sea surface temperatures
in the region.

Above normal precipitation is favored for the eastern Aleutians, most of
Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska, ahead of the predicted trough. Near to
below normal precipitation is slightly favored for northwestern Mainland
Alaska, consistent with most model precipitation forecasts. Excluding most of
the west coast, the Great Basin, and parts of the Central Rockies, above normal
precipitation is slightly favored for most of the CONUS, consistent with the
precipitation consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS forecasts.
Probabilities for above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent for parts of the
Southwest monsoon region with predicted enhanced moisture flow into this
region. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with
the precipitation consolidation and above average sea surface temperatures in
the region.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, with
overall agreement between models on the mean mid-level height pattern, offset
by uncertainty related to a variable height forecast, weak anomalies, and
differences among temperature and precipitation forecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 14 2025

ECWMF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern
over North America during the 8-14 day period remain in overall good agreement,
while the pattern evolves. In the manual blend and individual model forecasts,
the predicted trough over southern Mainland Alaska deamplifies slightly as some
differences appear between models. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies expand
southward into the southwestern CONUS and weaken over the northeastern CONUS in
week 2. The ECMWF ensemble mean predicts a weak trough over the eastern CONUS,
where the GEFS and Canadian ensemble means predict weak positive 500-hPa height
anomalies. Slightly above normal 500-hPa heights are predicted across Hawaii.

Below normal temperatures are favored for a small area of southeastern Alaska
in the 8-14 day period, under a predicted trough through much of the period.
Near normal temperatures are favored for the Aleutians and most of Mainland
Alaska, where model forecast tools are inconsistent. Above normal temperatures
are likely for most of the western and north-central CONUS, under a predicted
ridge and persistent positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Near normal
temperatures are favored for parts of the Southwest, with enhanced moisture and
clouds. Near normal temperatures are favored for the Central Plains, the
Central and Upper Mississippi Valley, the Midwest, the Mid-Atlantic, and
southern New England, where temperature forecast tools are inconsistent. Below
normal temperatures are slightly favored for the central Great Lakes region,
under a developing trough and consistent with the temperature consolidation.
Above normal temperatures are favored for the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast
region, and southeast Atlantic coast, consistent with the temperature
consolidation. Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the
Hawaiian Islands excluding southeastern areas of the Big Island, consistent
with the temperature consolidation.

Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for southern and eastern
Mainland Alaska, and for Southeast Alaska, ahead of a predicted trough during
the period. Probabilities for above normal precipitation are enhanced for
Southern California and the Southwest, ahead of a predicted trough early in the
period. Above normal precipitation continues to be slightly favored for most of
the Central and Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southeast,
and the Eastern Seaboard, consistent with most precipitation tools and the
consolidation. Near normal precipitation is favored for parts of southern
Texas, consistent with the Auto blend of precipitation tools. Above normal
precipitation is favored across Hawaii in week 2, consistent with the
precipitation consolidation and the Auto blend of precipitation tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak
and conflicting signals in the precipitation and temperature tools for many
areas.

FORECASTER: D Collins

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060626 - 19940707 - 19520701 - 20080611 - 20070616


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060625 - 20070616 - 20080611 - 19940707 - 19530619


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 06 - 10 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 08 - 14 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$