994
FXUS06 KWBC 292001
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Sat November 29 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 09 2025

Model ensembles from the ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE are in good agreement with
respect to the synoptic picture over North America as depicted in 500-hPa
height anomalies during the 6-10 day forecast period, however there is some
spread with regard to the intensity of various synoptic features. Model
solutions depict moderate ridging over the North Pacific and extending into the
western Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and a broad and amplified trough covering most
of North America east of the Rocky Mountains and extending well into the North
Atlantic. This trough extends upstream in the high latitudes to cover much of
Alaska, with amplified ridging upstream of that over eastern Siberia. Despite
differences in relative intensity of these features, model ensembles are in
very good agreement as to the persistence of these features.

With an amplified trough centered over Quebec and a blocking ridge upstream,
much of the eastern CONUS is favored for below-normal temperatures,
particularly over the eastern Great Lakes and New England, where probabilities
exceed 70%. These chances decline quickly going south, with near- to
above-normal temperatures more likely for much of the Southeast U.S. and Gulf
Coast. The blocking ridge over the North Pacific also favors above-normal
temperatures for the western Great Plains and the western CONUS, with the
highest probabilities (>60%) over the Pacific Northwest. A similar dynamic,
with troughing over Alaska and amplified ridging over eastern Siberia, favors
below-normal temperatures for most of the state, while easterly flow further
south tilts the odds towards above-normal temperatures for the Alaskan
Panhandle. Positive height anomalies over much of the North Pacific favor
above-normal temperatures for the Hawaiian Islands.

Extensive troughing over much of North America sets up two sources of moisture
to drive enhanced precipitation, one focused on the Canadian West Coast fed by
the North Pacific, and the second focused on the Southeast U.S. as Gulf
moisture streams into a baroclinic zone driven by the deep mid-level trough.
This favors above-normal precipitation for much of the CONUS, especially along
western portions of the U.S.-Canadian border and portions of the Southeast
U.S., where chances exceed 50%. Near-normal precipitation is preferred for the
Central Plains, where the influence of ridging over the North Pacific limits
access to the aforementioned moisture sources. This influence increases to the
west, and much of Nevada and California tilts toward below-normal
precipitation. Like the temperatures, a similar dynamic plays out in Alaska,
with below-normal precipitation favored over much of the northern and western
Mainland, and above-normal precipitation preferred over the Panhandle and along
the Alaska-Canada border. Hawaii tilts towards above-normal precipitation,
consistent with most forecast tools.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools, offset by diverging model solutions with respect to evolution of
synoptic features.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 07 - 13 2025

As previously discussed, model solutions indicate a persistence of synoptic
features across the forecast domain, so much so that the main difference in the
500-hPa height manual blend for the week-2 period is weaker anomalies, which
could just as likely be due to to ensemble member spread as to an actual easing
of the depicted synoptic pattern. As such, the week-2 temperature and
precipitation outlooks are very similar to the 6-10 day period.

Below-normal temperatures continue to be favored for the northeastern CONUS,
with odds topping 50% for much of the Great Lakes and New England. Persistent
troughing over eastern Canada is favored to push colder air further south,
pushing much of the Gulf Coast towards near-normal temperatures. The western
Great Plains and western CONUS continue to tilt towards above-normal
temperatures with chances generally increasing from east to west. The Alaskan
Mainland remains favored for below-normal temperatures, while near-normal
temperatures are indicated for the Panhandle. Ridging over the North Pacific
favors continuing above-normal temperatures for Hawaii.

Continued ridging over the North Pacific is likely to keep much of California
and Nevada under below-normal precipitation, while its upstream influence is
favored to spread beyond the Central Plains, tilting portions of the Middle
Mississippi and Great Lakes towards near-normal precipitation as well. Most of
the rest of the CONUS tilts towards above-normal precipitation, with slightly
higher chances (>40%) over the Southeast U.S. and along the western
U.S.-Canadian border. Southeast Alaska remains close enough to the main Pacific
storm track to tilt towards above-normal precipitation, while portions of
western and northern Mainland Alaska remain under below-normal precipitation.
All of Hawaii tilts towards above-normal precipitation, consistent with most
forecast tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools, offset by diverging model solutions with respect to evolution of
synoptic features.

FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
December 18.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20021203 - 19581213 - 20081201 - 20071128 - 19781125


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20021202 - 19581212 - 20081130 - 20021127 - 19881211


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Dec 05 - 09 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Dec 07 - 13 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$