862
FXUS06 KWBC 311902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri October 31 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 10 2025

The 500-hPa height pattern across North America and the surrounding regions
remains amplified and progressive during the 6-10 day period. The 6-10 day mean
height pattern forecast an anomalous trough over the Gulf of Alaska with
500-hPa height anomalies exceeding -120m. Downstream, a broad ridge is forecast
from the tropical East Pacific into the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS).
However, the ridge is not as expansive as yesterday across the central and
northwestern CONUS and is focused over the southwestern CONUS. A broad trough
in the North Atlantic has retrograded slightly relative to yesterday`s
forecast. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies now forecast across the Northeast
and near-normal 500-hPa heights are favored into the Mississippi Valley.

Above normal temperatures are favored across much of the CONUS during the 6-10
day period. The strongest probabilities for above normal temperatures are in
the Plains, Southern and Central Rockies, and Southwest where chances exceed
70% beneath mid-level ridging. Above normal temperatures are slightly reduced
for the Northwest due to enhanced onshore flow. In the East, probabilities fall
towards the East Coast with near normal temperatures favored in the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic. Mid-level troughing is mostly likely to impact parts of the
Northeast during the period. In Alaska, above normal temperatures are favored
for Southeast Alaska and the eastern Mainland where southerly onshore flow is
forecast. In southwest Alaska, a slight tilt towards below normal temperatures
is favored as a result of mid-level troughing. In Hawaii, above normal
temperatures are likely with strong agreement among the reforecast tools.

Above normal precipitation is forecast for much of the West Coast, north of
central California with probabilities for above-normal precipitation exceeding
60% west of the Cascades ranges. There is good agreement among the model
guidance and Integrated Vapor Transport tools for enhanced precipitation during
the period. Below normal precipitation is strongly favored across parts of the
Rio Grande Valley beneath strong mid-level high pressure. The below normal
precipitation chances extend across much of the Central and Southern Rockies
and Plains. Near normal precipitation is more favored today across the
Mississippi River Valley and Southeast with more shortwave troughing favored
relative to yesterday.  Above normal precipitation is favored for the Northern
Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic with more potent shortwave
troughing progressing across the northern tier during the period. In Alaska,
above-normal precipitation is favored for the Southeast into eastern Mainland
with enhanced southerly onshore flow. Near normal is slightly favored behind
the initial trough axis in western Mainland Alaska. Near to below normal
precipitation is favored for Hawaii with the strongest chances exceeding 40%
across the Big Island.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Very
good agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and
statistical tools is offset by diverging model solutions late in the period.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 14 2025

The week-2 mean 500-hPa height pattern is similar to the 6-10 day with many of
the mean features remaining fairly stable. A weak ridge remains forecast across
much of the West with some differences among the guidance in regards to the
strength of the positive anomalies. In the East, more enhanced troughing is
favored for the period mean. A key difference is the weakening trough in the
Gulf of Alaska relative to yesterday and the 6-10 day period. Troughing in the
Bering Sea has deepened relative to yesterday and could indicate reloading of
the trough across the Gulf by the end of week-2. However, there is a large
amount of uncertainty at this time.

As in the 6-10 day period, above normal temperatures are favored across most of
the CONUS during week-2. The chances for above-normal are favored across the
Southwest, Rockies, and Plains exceeding 60%. Odds are slightly reduced along
parts of the Pacific Northwest where more moist onshore flow reduces
confidence. In the East, above normal temperature chances are reduced towards
the Atlantic with near normal favored for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic where
more mid-level troughing is favored to remain during much of week-2. In Alaska,
above normal is favored for Southeast and the eastern Mainland with continued
southerly flow into the region. Near normal temperatures are favored for
western Alaska. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures are likely with strong
agreement among the reforecast tools.

Above normal precipitation remains forecast for the Northwest with reduced
chances relative to the 6-10 day period. An expansive area of below normal
precipitation is forecast across the Southwest, Southern and Central Rockies
and Plains into the Mississippi Valley beneath mid-level ridging. A slightly
wetter forecast is favored for the southeastern CONUS relative to yesterday and
more near-normal is favored in the Tennessee Valley. The overall flow pattern
is a little flatter relative to yesterday and more Pacific moisture may reach
the northern Plains and Great Lakes where above normal is favored today. Like
yesterday, a slight tilt towards above normal precipitation is favored for much
of the Northeast. Above normal precipitation is also favored in Florida where
there is good model agreement. Above normal precipitation is favored in
Southeast Alaska and through the southern Mainland. Near to above normal
precipitation is favored for Hawaii.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools is offset by diverging model solutions as the period progresses.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 20.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 06 - 10 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 08 - 14 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$