988
FXUS06 KWBC 181901
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri July 18 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 28 2025

There is good model agreement on the forecast 500-hPa height anomalies across
the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska today. Mid-level ridging is forecast
across much of the CONUS along and east of the Rocky Mountains. A broad area of
594dm 500-hPa heights is forecast across the south-central and south-eastern
CONUS while the strongest mid-level anomalies are forecast further north over
the western Great Lake region. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge across the Aleutian
Islands is helping to amplify a trough along much of the West Coast of North
America.

The 6-10 day temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures for most of
the central and eastern CONUS with maximum probabilities of 70-80% for areas in
the central and lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. This is supported by
the temperature consolidation and most of the other temperature guidance, and
is attributed to predicted anomalous mid-level ridging and broad low-level
southerly flow. The exception to this large area of favored above normal
temperatures is for favored below normal temperatures along the West Coast.
These areas are predicted to be under the influence of weak mid-level troughing
over the eastern Pacific. In Alaska, near to below normal mid-level heights
over eastern Mainland bring increased chances for below normal temperatures to
much of Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska. Guidance continues to strengthen
a mid-level trough over Southeast Alaska that may bring unsettled weather and
cloudy conditions to the region, increasing chances for below normal
temperatures. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Central
Pacific favor above normal temperatures in Hawaii, supported also by the
Hawaii-CON and the auto-blend.

The 6-10 day precipitation outlook favors wetter than normal conditions across
parts of the Northwest due to mid-level troughing. For the Upper Mississippi
Valley through the Great Lakes and Northeast, increased chances for enhanced
convection across the top of the mid-level ridge bring elevated chances for
above normal precipitation to the region. Along the Gulf Coast a tropical wave
may bring elevated chances for above normal precipitation to the central Gulf
Coast. Below-normal precipitation is favored for much of the interior West into
the Central and Southern Plains. The monsoon circulation looks to be disrupted
limiting chances for precipitation across the Southwest while the strong
mid-level ridge will likely limit precipitation elsewhere. In Alaska, troughing
over eastern Alaska favors above normal precipitation for eastern portions of
the state. Below-normal precipitation is favored for northwestern Alaska. For
Hawaii, near normal precipitation is favored for most of the state with mixed
guidance among the available tools.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5.  Good
agreement among the 500-hPa circulation forecasts offset by some differences
among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - AUG 01, 2025

The forecast height pattern for week-2 is similar to the 6-10 day period. There
is retrogression of the mid-level height pattern relative to the prior period
with the strongest mid-level height anomalies over the CONUS shifting towards
the Northern Plains. A mid-level trough is forecast to develop across the
Northeast during week-2. The mid-level ridge and associated positive 500-hPa
height anomalies over the Aleutian Islands remains in the week-2 forecast.
However guidance has lower anomalies relative to the 6-10 day period. The ECENS
is maintaining a stronger mid-level trough over Southeast Alaska while the GEFS
and CMCE forecast a relatively weaker feature.

Above normal temperatures remain strongly favored across most of the CONUS
during the week-2 period beneath strong mid-level ridging. Dew points are also
favored to be elevated across much of the eastern CONUS. Both the West Coast
and separately New England are forecast to be influenced by weak mid-level
troughs bringing near normal temperatures to the West Coast and near to below
normal temperature chances to the Northeast. In Alaska, tools are relatively
mixed today across most of Mainland Alaska. The exceptions are across the
northeast Mainland and down into Southeast Alaska where below-normal
temperatures are likely. Meanwhile, above normal is slightly favored for
south-central and southwestern Alaska. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures
continue to be favored into the week-2 period.

As in the 6-10 day period, above normal precipitation is favored across the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level ridge
retrogrades towards the West the strongest positive height anomalies are now
centered across the Plains. This may dampen chances for organized convection
across the region and only a slight tilt is favored today. Above normal
precipitation is slightly favored from the central Gulf Coast through the
Mid-Atlantic. Below normal precipitation is favored across the southwestern
CONUS and into the Central and Southern Plains beneath the mid-level ridge. In
Alaska, below normal precipitation chances are favored for the northern half of
Alaska. Above normal precipitation is favored for Southeast Alaska with near
normal chances elsewhere. In Hawaii, near to above normal precipitation is
favored with mixed guidance among the tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Good
agreement among the 500-hPa circulation forecasts offset by differences among
the precipitation dynamical and statistical tools.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 21.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520713 - 19720717 - 19780708 - 19810725 - 19780721


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19990716 - 19720718 - 19520715 - 19960714 - 19510701


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 24 - 28 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   N    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 26 - Aug 01, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$