756
FXUS06 KWBC 071939
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Mon July 07 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 17 2025

At the outset of the 6-10 day period, mid-level ridging is forecast across the
eastern Pacific and northeastern North America, with weak, transient troughing
predicted across the Midwest and Great Lakes. By day-10, a broadening of the
mid-level pattern is predicted across the domain, tied to the mid-level height
maximum shifting eastward into the Four Corners, and longwave troughing
weakening across central Canada. The 6-10 day manual 500-hPa height blend
depicts above-normal heights across the western third of the CONUS, as well as
across the northeastern quadrant. Closer to normal heights are forecast across
the central CONUS and the Southeast. A more variable mid-level pattern is
forecast across Alaska, with troughing over the eastern Aleutians and Gulf of
Alaska at the outset of the period, followed by some amplification of the ridge
axis across the eastern Pacific and troughing potentially rebuilding over the
Bering Sea. For the period as a whole, near-normal heights are predicted across
the state, except for the northwestern Mainland and far western Aleutians where
weakly above-normal heights are forecast.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast across
eastern and western portions of the CONUS consistent with ridging over both
regions and strong signals in the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools.
Teleconnection analysis with the positive height anomaly centers off the West
Coast and across northeastern Canada both support enhanced chances of
below-normal temperatures across the Midwest tied to weak troughing developing
in between the two ridges. This is also reflected in the ECENS reforecast and
uncalibrated guidance, with the GEFS counterparts remaining comparatively
warmer. As a result, near-normal temperature probabilities are indicated across
the Midwest, with a slight tilt toward below-normal temperatures highlighted
across portions of the Central and Southern Plains due to increased soil
moisture. The uncalibrated ECENS also depicts enhanced chances of below-normal
temperatures across the Southeast during the period which may be tied to a
potential shortwave feature drifting westward across Florida and near the Gulf
Coast. However, given the warmer ECENS reforecast tool and GEFS, probabilities
for above-normal temperatures remain elevated but are reduced slightly compared
to yesterday. Across Alaska, probabilities for below-normal temperatures are
increased across eastern and southern parts of the state, supported by strong
signals in the uncalibrated tools. However, the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools
support increasing chances for above-normal temperatures across northern
Mainland Alaska. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures are
forecast across Hawaii supported by the consolidated forecast tool.

Intermittent frontal activity continues to favor broadly weak probabilities for
above-normal precipitation east of the Rockies. The ridge axis placement over
eastern North America supports high moisture content across the East, further
aided by weak troughing upstream across the Midwest and enhanced southerly
mid-level flow downstream. This favors elevated chances of daily precipitation,
possibly further enhanced by a slow moving front along the East Coast and a
surface feature drifting across the Southeast and Gulf Coast during the period.
The GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools also support enhanced probabilities of
above-normal precipitation across southern portions of the Southwest, although
stronger monsoon activity appears more likely beyond day-10. Ridging over the
East Pacific supports increased probabilities of below-normal precipitation
across much of the West. Enhanced onshore flow supports slightly elevated
above-normal precipitation probabilities across southern Alaska. Near- to
below-normal precipitation chances are favored across the northern Mainland
supported by the ECENS reforecast and uncalibrated tools. Above-normal
precipitation is favored across Hawaii.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
model agreement regarding the evolution of the mid-level pattern, offset by
some differences in the temperature guidance across the Midwest and Southeast,
as well as weak signals for enhanced precipitation.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 21 2025

A broad ridge axis is forecast to expand across the CONUS during week-2, with a
594-dm mid-level height maximum depicted across the Four Corners in the manual
height blend. Broad +30 meter positive height anomalies are indicated across
much of the northern half of the CONUS (greater than +60 meters across the
Northeast). Near-normal heights continue to be favored across the south-central
and southeastern states. Ridging and an associated strengthening surface high
are forecast across the eastern Pacific, with weak troughing becoming
established over the Bering Sea. As a result, above-normal heights are depicted
in the manual blend across the Aleutians and southwestern Mainland Alaska.
Near-normal heights are predicted across the remainder of the state (with the
exception of a small area of above-normal heights across the extreme
northeastern Mainland).

Above-normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS during week-2,
with the highest chances (greater than 50 percent) across portions of the
Interior West and much of the Northeast. There is still a weak signal for
below-normal temperatures across the Great Plains in the ECENS reforecast tool,
but the broadening ridge axis favors a warming trend as seen in other guidance
supporting a tilt toward above-normal temperatures. A combination of increasing
monsoon moisture and increased soil moisture favor enhanced chances of near- to
below-normal temperatures across portions of the Southwest through the Central
Plains. The uncalibrated GEFS and ECENS continue to support enhanced
probabilities for below-normal temperatures across southern Alaska. However,
the trend toward more ridging and higher heights over the East Pacific favors
reduced probabilities, with the ECENS reforecast tool depicting elevated
chances of near- to above-normal temperatures across nearly all of the state.
Above-normal temperature chances are slightly increased across northern Alaska
where there is better support from the GEFS. The consolidated forecast tool
continues to favor elevated probabilities of above-normal temperatures across
Hawaii.

Monsoon activity is forecast to increase across the Southwest as the ridge axis
shifts into a favorable position over the Four Corners by the second half of
the period. This results in chances for above-normal precipitation increasing
above 50 percent over parts of southern Arizona. To the north, below-normal
precipitation chances are slightly elevated across portions of the Pacific
Northwest and Great Basin but are reduced compared to the 6-10 day period.
Near- to above-normal precipitation remains favored across the remainder of the
CONUS due to continued periodic shortwave activity, with the highest week-2
precipitation totals focused across the Gulf Coast and lower Eastern Seaboard
tied to the slow moving frontal system discussed in the 6-10 day outlook. Near-
to above-normal precipitation chances are increased across Alaska, with the
GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools favoring the highest odds (greater than 40
percent) across the western part of the state as weak troughing shifts into the
Bering Sea. Near- to above-normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, with
the consolidated forecast tool depicting a drying trend across the southern
islands during week-2.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to models
depicting a low amplitude, stable pattern emerging, offset by weak signals in
the precipitation tools.

FORECASTER: Thomas Collow

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060617 - 19790720 - 19940715 - 20050628 - 20020719


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19790719 - 20060616 - 20020718 - 20050627 - 19940715


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 13 - 17 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 15 - 21 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$