


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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756 FXUS06 KWBC 071939 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Mon July 07 2025 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 13 - 17 2025 At the outset of the 6-10 day period, mid-level ridging is forecast across the eastern Pacific and northeastern North America, with weak, transient troughing predicted across the Midwest and Great Lakes. By day-10, a broadening of the mid-level pattern is predicted across the domain, tied to the mid-level height maximum shifting eastward into the Four Corners, and longwave troughing weakening across central Canada. The 6-10 day manual 500-hPa height blend depicts above-normal heights across the western third of the CONUS, as well as across the northeastern quadrant. Closer to normal heights are forecast across the central CONUS and the Southeast. A more variable mid-level pattern is forecast across Alaska, with troughing over the eastern Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska at the outset of the period, followed by some amplification of the ridge axis across the eastern Pacific and troughing potentially rebuilding over the Bering Sea. For the period as a whole, near-normal heights are predicted across the state, except for the northwestern Mainland and far western Aleutians where weakly above-normal heights are forecast. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast across eastern and western portions of the CONUS consistent with ridging over both regions and strong signals in the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools. Teleconnection analysis with the positive height anomaly centers off the West Coast and across northeastern Canada both support enhanced chances of below-normal temperatures across the Midwest tied to weak troughing developing in between the two ridges. This is also reflected in the ECENS reforecast and uncalibrated guidance, with the GEFS counterparts remaining comparatively warmer. As a result, near-normal temperature probabilities are indicated across the Midwest, with a slight tilt toward below-normal temperatures highlighted across portions of the Central and Southern Plains due to increased soil moisture. The uncalibrated ECENS also depicts enhanced chances of below-normal temperatures across the Southeast during the period which may be tied to a potential shortwave feature drifting westward across Florida and near the Gulf Coast. However, given the warmer ECENS reforecast tool and GEFS, probabilities for above-normal temperatures remain elevated but are reduced slightly compared to yesterday. Across Alaska, probabilities for below-normal temperatures are increased across eastern and southern parts of the state, supported by strong signals in the uncalibrated tools. However, the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools support increasing chances for above-normal temperatures across northern Mainland Alaska. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii supported by the consolidated forecast tool. Intermittent frontal activity continues to favor broadly weak probabilities for above-normal precipitation east of the Rockies. The ridge axis placement over eastern North America supports high moisture content across the East, further aided by weak troughing upstream across the Midwest and enhanced southerly mid-level flow downstream. This favors elevated chances of daily precipitation, possibly further enhanced by a slow moving front along the East Coast and a surface feature drifting across the Southeast and Gulf Coast during the period. The GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools also support enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation across southern portions of the Southwest, although stronger monsoon activity appears more likely beyond day-10. Ridging over the East Pacific supports increased probabilities of below-normal precipitation across much of the West. Enhanced onshore flow supports slightly elevated above-normal precipitation probabilities across southern Alaska. Near- to below-normal precipitation chances are favored across the northern Mainland supported by the ECENS reforecast and uncalibrated tools. Above-normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good model agreement regarding the evolution of the mid-level pattern, offset by some differences in the temperature guidance across the Midwest and Southeast, as well as weak signals for enhanced precipitation. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 21 2025 A broad ridge axis is forecast to expand across the CONUS during week-2, with a 594-dm mid-level height maximum depicted across the Four Corners in the manual height blend. Broad +30 meter positive height anomalies are indicated across much of the northern half of the CONUS (greater than +60 meters across the Northeast). Near-normal heights continue to be favored across the south-central and southeastern states. Ridging and an associated strengthening surface high are forecast across the eastern Pacific, with weak troughing becoming established over the Bering Sea. As a result, above-normal heights are depicted in the manual blend across the Aleutians and southwestern Mainland Alaska. Near-normal heights are predicted across the remainder of the state (with the exception of a small area of above-normal heights across the extreme northeastern Mainland). Above-normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS during week-2, with the highest chances (greater than 50 percent) across portions of the Interior West and much of the Northeast. There is still a weak signal for below-normal temperatures across the Great Plains in the ECENS reforecast tool, but the broadening ridge axis favors a warming trend as seen in other guidance supporting a tilt toward above-normal temperatures. A combination of increasing monsoon moisture and increased soil moisture favor enhanced chances of near- to below-normal temperatures across portions of the Southwest through the Central Plains. The uncalibrated GEFS and ECENS continue to support enhanced probabilities for below-normal temperatures across southern Alaska. However, the trend toward more ridging and higher heights over the East Pacific favors reduced probabilities, with the ECENS reforecast tool depicting elevated chances of near- to above-normal temperatures across nearly all of the state. Above-normal temperature chances are slightly increased across northern Alaska where there is better support from the GEFS. The consolidated forecast tool continues to favor elevated probabilities of above-normal temperatures across Hawaii. Monsoon activity is forecast to increase across the Southwest as the ridge axis shifts into a favorable position over the Four Corners by the second half of the period. This results in chances for above-normal precipitation increasing above 50 percent over parts of southern Arizona. To the north, below-normal precipitation chances are slightly elevated across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin but are reduced compared to the 6-10 day period. Near- to above-normal precipitation remains favored across the remainder of the CONUS due to continued periodic shortwave activity, with the highest week-2 precipitation totals focused across the Gulf Coast and lower Eastern Seaboard tied to the slow moving frontal system discussed in the 6-10 day outlook. Near- to above-normal precipitation chances are increased across Alaska, with the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools favoring the highest odds (greater than 40 percent) across the western part of the state as weak troughing shifts into the Bering Sea. Near- to above-normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, with the consolidated forecast tool depicting a drying trend across the southern islands during week-2. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to models depicting a low amplitude, stable pattern emerging, offset by weak signals in the precipitation tools. FORECASTER: Thomas Collow Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches"). Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on July 17. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20060617 - 19790720 - 19940715 - 20050628 - 20020719 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19790719 - 20060616 - 20020718 - 20050627 - 19940715 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 13 - 17 2025 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 15 - 21 2025 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA B A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$