607
FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Sun October 12 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 18 - 22 2025

Today`s numerical models depict a complex 500-hPa flow pattern across North
America and vicinity. Below normal mean 500-hPa heights are forecast from the
Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains associated with a pair of shortwave
troughs. The initial trough is predicted over the Northern Plains and expected
to progress eastward to the Northeast and weaken. On its heels, a second trough
is predicted to progress from Southeast Alaska to the northwestern CONUS and
eventually the Northern Plains. Downstream transient ridging is forecast over
the Eastern Seaboard early in the period, followed by a variable pattern
thereafter. Mean troughing is predicted to persist over the western Atlantic,
well off the coast of New England. Generally near normal heights are forecast
for Alaska, with the exception of the Aleutians and the west coast of the
Mainland where below normal heights are forecast as a trough approaches from
the Bering Sea. A mean mid-level low is forecast in the vicinity of Hawaii.

Below normal temperatures are likely across most of the western third of the
CONUS. Probabilities of below normal temperatures exceed 50 percent across much
of the interior West, as a shortwave trough is forecast to dive southeastward
into the area by the middle of the period. Predicted downstream ridging
supports elevated chances of above normal temperatures for most of the eastern
and south-central CONUS. Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 70
percent across the central and western Gulf Coast region, the Lower Mississippi
Valley, and adjacent areas of the Southern Plains, ahead of the predicted
trough in the western CONUS and consistent with observed above normal SSTs in
the adjacent Gulf. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of Alaska,
ahead of a trough predicted over the western Bering Sea. However, near normal
temperatures are slightly favored for Southeast Alaska, underneath modestly
enhanced anomalous northerly mid-level flow. Above normal temperatures are
likely for Hawaii, especially the western and central islands, consistent with
observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Above normal precipitation is likely across the Northern Rockies and adjacent
areas of the Pacific Northwest, Central Rockies, Great Basin, and Northern and
Central Plains due to predicted cyclonic flow and associated shortwave troughs.
Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent for the Northern
Rockies as a shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the area. Above
normal precipitation is also favored for the Great Lakes, the Ohio, Tennessee,
and Mississippi Valleys, and adjacent areas of the Plains, Appalachians, and
Southeast, due to enhanced moisture advection from the Gulf combined with
predicted frontal activity. Near normal precipitation is more likely across the
Northeast as surface high pressure is forecast to dominate at the beginning of
the period followed by a potential increase in moisture later. Below normal
precipitation is favored across parts of the Southwest as the mean Pacific
storm track is expected to remain to its north. An active pattern is likely
across most of Alaska ahead of a deep mid-level trough predicted over the
western Bering Sea. Above normal precipitation is also favored for Hawaii, near
a predicted mean mid-level low.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 35% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
a complex 500-hPa glow pattern predicted in today`s model solutions.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 20 - 26 2025

During week-2, a transition to a lower amplitude pattern is noted as weak mean
500-hPa height anomalies are predicted across much of the Lower 48 states.
Farther to the north, an amplified trough is predicted over the Bering Sea.
This mean 500-hPa pattern would result in near to below normal heights across
the northern CONUS and modestly above normal heights across the Southern Tier.
The resulting enhanced north to south mid-level height gradient favors fast
Pacific flow across much of the country. Below normal heights are likely for
much of Alaska as the deep trough over the Bering Sea approaches the western
Mainland and progresses southeastward to the Gulf of Alaska. Strong, anomalous
ridging is predicted downstream over the Davis Strait, signaling a likely
transition to a negative NAO pattern. An area of mid-level low pressure is
forecast to persist in the vicinity of Hawaii.

Below normal temperatures remain favored across parts of the Great Basin
southwestward to Southern California due to residual troughing early in the
period. Conversely, above normal temperatures are more likely downstream across
the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast associated with
weak ridging. Above normal temperatures are also favored across the Northern
Tier from the Northern Plains to the Northeast. However, above normal
temperature probabilities were reduced relative to guidance across much of the
Northern and Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Northeast,
and Mid-Atlantic due to the potential emergence of a negative NAO pattern.
Above normal temperatures remain favored across most of Alaska ahead of a deep
trough forecast over the Bering Sea. However, probabilities are more modest
relative to yesterday, particularly for the Aleutians and the west coast of the
Mainland as the Bering Sea trough progresses southeastward to the Gulf of
Alaska later in the period. Near normal temperatures remain more likely for
Southeast Alaska, due to the offsetting influences of weakly enhanced southerly
mean mid-level flow and predicted modestly below normal heights. Above normal
temperatures are likely for Hawaii, especially the western and central islands,
consistent with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Above normal precipitation is favored across much of the Northern Tier of the
CONUS due to predicted enhanced low-amplitude Pacific flow and embedded
shortwave troughs. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50
percent across the Pacific Northwest due largely to an approaching deep trough
later in the period. Above normal precipitation is favored across the Gulf
Coast Region, Southeast, and adjacent southern Mid-Atlantic due to predicted
modestly enhanced easterly or southeasterly low-level flow early in the period.
These enhanced above normal precipitation probabilities were kept low as
surface high pressure is forecast to develop later in the period. Above normal
precipitation is weakly favored for the interior Northeast and eastern Great
Lakes, as a pair of weak shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate through the
region during this seven day period. A slight tilt toward below normal
precipitation is forecast across much of the Southwest northeastward to the
Central Plains and adjacent Southern High Plains underneath predicted weak
ridging. Above normal precipitation is favored across roughly  the southern
half of  Alaska as a deep mid-level trough progresses from the Bering Sea
southeastward to the Gulf of Alaska. Above normal precipitation is also favored
for Hawaii, near a predicted mean mid-level low.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
a predicted transitional pattern during this seven day period.

FORECASTER: Scott H

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
October 16.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 18 - 22 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 20 - 26 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$