110
FXUS06 KWBC 011902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue July 01 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 11 2025

The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble models agree on the overall 500-hPa
height pattern over North America and surrounding regions, with a variable
pattern during the 6-10 day period and some differences in the temperature and
precipitation tools among models. The manual height blend is based on 0Z
ensemble means, weighing the ECMWF model greater due to recent model anomaly
correlation skill. The manual blend shows a mid-level trough over southern
Mainland Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. A trough near the central California
coast is predicted to deamplify early in the period. A ridge and positive
500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over most of the remaining contiguous
United States (CONUS). Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted across
Hawaii in the manual blend of models.

Below normal temperatures are slightly favored for most of the southern coast
of Alaska, under a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are slightly
favored over most of central and northern interior Mainland Alaska, consistent
with the temperature consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS forecasts.
Above normal temperatures are favored over most of the western CONUS, excluding
parts of the California coast, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Near
normal temperatures are favored for parts of California, under a predicted
trough early in the period and with increased cloudiness due to the flow of
moisture into the region. Above normal temperatures are likely over much of the
eastern CONUS, consistent with the Auto blend of temperature forecast tools.
The temperature consolidation favors above normal temperatures across most of
the Hawaiian Islands, excluding the Big Island, associated with above average
sea surface temperatures in the region.

Above normal precipitation is favored for the central Aleutians, most of
Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska, ahead of the predicted trough. Near to
below normal precipitation is slightly favored for northwestern Mainland
Alaska, consistent with most model precipitation forecast tools. Above normal
precipitation is favored for the Southwest, the Great Plains, and the eastern
CONUS, consistent with the precipitation consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and
GEFS forecasts. Probabilities for above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent
for parts of the Southwest monsoon region with predicted enhanced moisture flow
into this region. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii,
consistent with the precipitation consolidation and above average sea surface
temperatures in the region.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, with
overall agreement between models on the mean mid-level height pattern, offset
by uncertainty related to a variable height forecast, weak anomalies, and
differences among temperature and precipitation forecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 15 2025

ECWMF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern
over North America during the 8-14 day period remain in overall good agreement,
while the pattern evolves. In the manual blend, the predicted trough over
southern Mainland Alaska deamplifies slightly as some differences appear
between models. Negative 500-hPa height anomalies expand northward across
Mainland Alaska in the manual blend. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies expand
southward into the southwestern CONUS and weaken over the northeastern CONUS in
week 2. The ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means predict a weak trough over the
eastern CONUS, where the GEFS ensemble mean predicts weak positive 500-hPa
height anomalies. Near average 500-hPa heights are predicted across Hawaii.

Below normal temperatures are favored for most of the southern coast of
Mainland Alaska and for Southeast Alaska in the 8-14 day period, under a
predicted trough. Below normal temperatures are favored for northern Mainland
Alaska, under negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal temperatures are
likely for the western CONUS and Northern Plains, under a predicted ridge and
persistent positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Near to below normal temperatures
are favored from eastern areas of the Southwest into the Central Plains, with
enhanced moisture into the region and clouds. Near normal temperatures are
favored for much of the eastern CONUS, including the Central Mississippi
Valley, the Midwest, the Tennessee Valley, and the Mid-Atlantic, where
temperature forecast tools are inconsistent. Above normal temperatures are
favored for parts of the Northeast, the Gulf Coast region and southeast
Atlantic coast, consistent with most model temperature tools. Above normal
temperatures are favored across most of the Hawaiian Islands excluding
southeastern areas of the Big Island, consistent with the temperature
consolidation.

Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for most of Mainland Alaska,
excluding northwestern areas, and for Southeast Alaska, ahead of a predicted
trough during the period. Most models and the consolidation favor enhanced
probabilities for above normal precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest
in week 2. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Southwest, with
slightly enhanced monsoonal flow. Above normal precipitation continues to be
slightly favored for most of the Central and Southern Plains, the Central and
Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Southeast, and the Atlantic
Coast, consistent with most precipitation tools and the consolidation. Near
normal precipitation is favored for parts of southern Florida, consistent with
the Auto blend of precipitation tools and the consolidation. Above normal
precipitation is favored across Hawaii in week 2, consistent with the
precipitation consolidation and the Auto blend of precipitation tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak
and conflicting signals in the precipitation and temperature tools for many
areas.

FORECASTER: D Collins

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060626 - 20070617 - 19940708 - 20050629 - 20080612


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060625 - 20070616 - 19530619 - 20080611 - 19940710


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 07 - 11 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 09 - 15 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$