987
FXUS06 KWBC 072002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Fri February 07 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 17 2025

Today`s model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the
ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models due to recent model
skill. The resultant manual blend features a broad mid-level trough across much
of the northern Contiguous United States (CONUS) and associated negative
500-hPa height anomalies extending from the Pacific Northwest eastward across
the northern and central Rockies and Plains, the Upper- and Middle-Mississippi
Valley, and the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge is forecast across
the southeastern CONUS. A ridge and associated positive anomalies are forecast
across much of Alaska, while a trough is forecast from eastern Siberia to the
western Aleutians. Slightly above-normal heights are predicted across Hawaii.

Below-normal temperatures are favored for much of the western, central, and
northern CONUS during the 6-10 day period, consistent with most of the
dynamical guidance. The strongest probabilities (>80%) are forecast across
parts of the Northern Plains. Above-normal temperatures remain likely across
parts of southern Texas and the southeastern CONUS with chances exceeding 80%
across southern and central Florida. In Alaska, above-normal temperatures are
favored across portions of the southwestern Mainland and Aleutians upstream of
the mid-level ridge axis. Below-normal temperatures are favored in parts of
eastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above-normal
temperatures are likely.

Above-normal precipitation is favored across the CONUS except for parts of the
Southern and Central Plains and southern Florida, supported by most of the
dynamic precipitation forecast tools. Above normal precipitation probabilities
exceed 60 percent over parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern and central
California, the North and Central Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies.
Below-normal precipitation is favored across much of Alaska during the period
beneath mid-level ridging. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored in
Hawaii with better agreement among model guidance.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above-Average, 4 out of 5. Good
agreement among the dynamical and statistical tools is offset by a progressive
pattern.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 21 2025

Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a fairly consistent
500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the 6-10 day period across North
America and the surrounding regions. Early in week-2, zonal flow across the
eastern Pacific into the western CONUS is forecast, before mid-level ridging
begins to redevelop over the northern Pacific by the end of the period.
Mid-level troughing with associated negative height anomalies is forecast
across the northern CONUS from the Rockies eastward during week-2. This
troughing is considerably less amplified than prior forecasts. Positive
mid-level height anomalies are forecast across the southern CONUS as well as
much of the West Coast during week-2. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are
forecast across much of Alaska. Near-normal heights are forecast across Hawaii.

Below-normal temperatures remain favored across much of the northern and
eastern CONUS during week-2. The strongest probabilities remain across the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, consistent with most of the
dynamical temperature forecast tools. Above-normal temperatures are favored
over parts of Four Corners, Southwest, the Rio Grande Valley, and the Gulf
Coast. In Alaska, above-normal temperatures are favored over parts of
southwestern Mainland and the Aleutians with near-normal temperatures favored
across much of the rest of the Mainland. Below-normal temperatures remain
favored in Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the Mainland. In Hawaii,
above-normal temperatures continue to be likely.

Above-normal precipitation is favored across much of the CONUS. The strongest
probabilities are forecast in parts of the Pacific Northwest with one or two
storm systems pushing into the region early in the week-2 period. In the
eastern CONUS, above-normal precipitation remains favored with multiple systems
forecast to impact the region. Below-normal precipitation is favored in the
southern half of  California extending eastward to parts of the Southwest,
Southern Rockies, and Southern High Plains, supported by most of the dynamical
precipitation forecast tools. In Alaska, below-normal precipitation is favored
for northern Mainland Alaska. In Hawaii, a slight tilt towards above-normal
precipitation is favored.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, Fair
agreement among the dynamical guidance is offset by low probabilities and a
more zonal flow pattern.

FORECASTER: Luke H

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
February 20.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19880129 - 19590214 - 19890202 - 19570203 - 19540118


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19590214 - 19540119 - 19880130 - 19570204 - 19750202


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Feb 13 - 17 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     B    B
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Feb 15 - 21 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   N    B     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    N
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$