395
FXUS06 KWBC 162001
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Sun November 16 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 22 - 26 2025

A transitional 500-hPa height pattern is forecast across North America during
the 6-10 day period. Initially, troughing is forecast across the Southwest,
with elongated ridging off the West Coast and an inland extension of positive
height anomalies across parts of the West. However, these features are
predicted to weaken as a highly amplified ridge axis develops across Alaska
later in the period. Tied to this feature and consistent with the 0z ECENS,
GEFS, and CMCE dynamical models, troughing is forecast to dig southward into
the western CONUS around the middle of the period. Further downstream, ridging
is favored across the Eastern Seaboard with an enhanced baroclinic zone setting
up across the east-central CONUS. Today`s 6-10 day manual height blend depicts
a broad region of +30 meter positive 500-hPa height anomalies extending from
the Central Plains to the East Coast. Near-normal heights are now indicated for
much of the West into the Southern Plains given more troughing during the
latter half of the period and predicted height falls. Large positive height
anomalies are indicated across Alaska, with a +150 meter maximum over the
southwestern part of the state. Near-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast across
Hawaii, although a trend toward lower heights are forecast to the north and
west as troughing amplifies across the central Pacific.

Ridging over the eastern CONUS combined with enhanced southerly return flow
supports a warm pattern east of the Rockies in the days leading up to
Thanksgiving, with elevated probabilities for above-normal temperatures
favored. The highest probabilities (greater than 80 percent) are indicated
across the Southeast, with probabilities greater than 60 percent extending into
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest where +10 deg F temperature anomalies are
possible, especially early in the period. Above-normal temperatures are favored
across the northwestern CONUS at the outset of the period, with a transition to
colder temperatures during the second half of the period as troughing develops.
As a result, the forecast for the period as a whole is difficult, and adding to
the uncertainty is the ECENS and GEFS reforecast (uncalibrated) tools favor a
warmer (colder) outcome. Therefore, near-normal temperatures are forecast
across much of the western third of the CONUS for the 6-10 day period, with
higher probabilities for below-normal temperatures across the Desert Southwest
and Pacific Northwest where there is better tool agreement. The building ridge
over Alaska supports increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures over
much of the Mainland and the Aleutians, with slightly elevated chances of near-
to below-normal temperatures across the southeastern Mainland coast and
Southeast Alaska. Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii
consistent with the reforecast consolidation tool.

Tied to enhanced southerly flow, enhanced precipitation is forecast across the
south-central CONUS, with the dynamical models depicting the largest
precipitation totals across eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Ark-La-Tex region, justifying at least 50 percent probabilities for
above-normal precipitation. Later in the period, the strongest baroclinicity is
forecast to shift toward the north and west as renewed troughing builds into
the western CONUS and subsequent progression of surface low pressure systems
ejecting out of the Rockies. Therefore, broadly enhanced probabilities for
above-normal precipitation extend throughout much of the CONUS. Further
downstream, near-normal precipitation is forecast across the Northeast, Great
Lakes, and the Florida Peninsula. Near- to slightly below-normal precipitation
is favored across portions of coastal California tied to initial ridging over
the eastern Pacific and supported by both the reforecast and uncalibrated ECENS
and GEFS. Above-normal precipitation probabilities are increased over Mainland
Alaska as the ridge axis leads to a northward shift of the storm track across
the state, with below-normal precipitation more likely over Southeast Alaska. A
slight tilt toward enhanced odds for above-normal precipitation is forecast
across Hawaii.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to
generally good model agreement, offset by a predicted transitional pattern
leading to uncertainty in the temperature forecast across the western CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 24 - 30 2025

The pattern transition discussed during the 6-10 day period is forecast to
continue to take shape later in week-2. This is partially driven by the Madden
Julian Oscillation (MJO), as well as the potential for a Sudden Stratospheric
Warming (SSW) event in late November. The week-2 manual 500-hPa height blend
depicts a +210 meter positive height anomaly center over northwestern Alaska,
which teleconnects with more troughing and negative height anomalies downstream
over the CONUS. The 0z GEFS and ECENS are more amplified with the troughing
over the CONUS compared to yesterday, with the 0z CMCE continuing to be the
most progressive. Ridging is still forecast to dominate the East for much of
the period. The manual height blend depicts +30 meter positive height anomalies
across the Central and Southern Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley,
and eastward to the Atlantic Coast, with a +60 meter positive height anomaly
center across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. Near- to below-normal
heights are indicated across the western and north-central CONUS. Strongly
positive height anomalies are indicated across all of Alaska underneath
ridging. Near-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast across Hawaii, with
below-normal heights more likely to the north of the islands tied to troughing.

The highest confidence in the week-2 temperature outlook is across the eastern
CONUS where ridging favors above-normal temperatures continuing through
Thanksgiving, with temperatures generally 5-10 deg F above-normal based on the
dynamical models. While the 0z CMCE is quicker to bring below-normal
temperatures into the East by the end of week-2, this forecast leans on the
slower progression in the 0z ECENS and GEFS and would delay the arrival of
colder air until week-3. Over the West, there is better confidence compared to
yesterday regarding increased chances for below-normal temperatures given
improved agreement among the reforecast and uncalibrated guidance, as well as
added support from the analog and teleconnection tools. Timing of the cold
across the Upper Midwest is difficult, with the uncalibrated tools showing the
sharpest downward trend in temperatures during the second half of the period,
with much warmer temperatures predicted at the outset of week-2 skewing the
period average upwards. Above-normal temperature probabilities are increased
over Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians underneath ridging. Below-normal
temperatures are favored downstream over Southeast Alaska. Above-normal
temperatures remain forecast across Hawaii.

As noted in the 6-10 day outlook, the baroclinic zone is forecast to shift
toward the north-central CONUS tied to incoming troughing over the region. This
supports above-normal precipitation probabilities greater than 50 percent,
further aided by the lower climatology compared to further east. The arrival of
colder air also raises the concern for wintry weather across the region around
Thanksgiving. Odds for above-normal precipitation continue to be elevated
throughout much of the central and eastern CONUS tied to an active southern
stream pattern and continued chances for frontal waves to propagate through the
region, with probabilities for above-normal precipitation increased above 50-
percent across the Ark-La-Tex. The ridge axis across Alaska supports an uptick
in below-normal precipitation probabilities across the eastern part of the
state, supported by the GEFS and ECENS reforecast tools. Increased onshore flow
across western Alaska tilts the odds slightly toward above-normal
precipitation. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast
across Hawaii as a result of increasing troughing to the north of the state.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
model agreement regarding a colder pattern taking shape across the west-central
CONUS, offset by uncertainty in timing and relatively warmer temperatures at
the outset of the period.

FORECASTER: Thomas Collow

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
2025-11-16.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 22 - 26 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 24 - 30 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$