757
FXUS06 KWBC 232002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Tue December 23 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 29, 2025 - JAN 02, 2026

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means predict a highly amplified
circulation pattern over North America and surrounding regions during the 610
day period. The manual height blend is based on ensemble means, weighting the
ECMWF model more heavily due to its recent higher anomaly correlation skill.
The manual blend indicates a strong mid-level ridge centered across the
Aleutian Islands and the North Pacific. Downstream, negative 500-hPa height
anomalies and mid-level troughing are forecast over eastern Mainland Alaska and
the Gulf of Alaska. An amplified mean mid-level ridge with positive 500-hPa
height anomalies is forecast to be over the western and central contiguous U.S.
(CONUS), while a deep trough is forecast over the eastern CONUS. Near to below
normal 500-hPa heights are predicted across Hawaii during the 610 day period.

Across the CONUS, broadly positive 500-hPa height anomalies and enhanced mild
Pacific flow should result in above normal temperatures across most of the
western and central CONUS. Probabilities for above normal temperatures exceed
70 percent over parts of the Great Plains region, supported by most of the
dynamical temperature forecast tools. Below normal temperatures are favored
over  most of the eastern CONUS under a predicted trough and below normal
500-hPa heights. Below normal temperatures are expected to be persistent and
widespread across all of Alaska outside the western Aleutians, although there
may be a brief period of slightly milder conditions late in the period. Odds
for subnormal temperatures exceed 70 percent over south-central. Above normal
temperatures are very likely across Hawaii in the 610 day period, consistent
with the temperature consolidation.

Below normal precipitation is likely for the Aleutian Islands and portions of
southwestern Mainland Alaska under and ahead of the positive 500-hPa anomaly
center. Near to above normal precipitation is slightly favored for northern and
eastern Mainland Alaska, as well as Southeast Alaska, consistent with most
ensemble model precipitation forecasts. Enhanced probabilities for near to
above normal precipitation are likely over most of the western CONUS, supported
by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Below normal
precipitation is forecast over most of the eastern and central CONUS (except
for parts of northern North Dakota, northern Minnesota, Upper Michigan, and
portions of northern Maine, where slightly above normal precipitation is
likely), under above normal 500-hPa heights and where model forecasts are in
agreement. In Hawaii, above normal precipitation is favored during the 610 day
period, consistent with the precipitation consolidation forecast.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average (4 out of 5), due to
good agreement among ensemble model forecasts, offset by some differences among
temperature and precipitation forecast tools for certain areas.


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2025 - JAN 06, 2026

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 814 day
period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern relative to the
610 day period across North America and the surrounding regions. An amplified
mean mid-level ridge remains likely over the North Pacific and the Aleutian
Islands. Downstream, mean mid-level troughing and below normal 500-hPa heights
are forecast over and near Southeast Alaska and the northwestern CONUS, while a
moderately strong mid-level ridge and above normal 500-hPa heights are
predicted over the western and central CONUS. A fairly weak mean trough is
still anticipated off the East Coast, leading into a second strong mid-level
ridge, with the largest positive 500-hPa height anomalies anticipated near
Iceland. To the south, Hawaii will likely remain downstream from a region of
subnormal 500-hPa heights, keeping cyclonically curved mid-level flow across
the island chain during the week-2 period.

Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the CONUS, with the strongest
chances exceeding 70 percent over parts of the southern Great Plains, and the
Central and Southern Rockies, under above normal 500-hPa heights and surface
southerly flow. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for the East
Coast, under a predicted trough and below normal 500-hPa heights during week-2.
At higher latitudes, the amplified ridgetrough couplet from the north-central
Pacific into Alaska and western Canada should keep below normal temperatures
entrenched across most of Alaska, although the magnitude and expanse of the
cold air will wax and wane over the course of the period. Above normal
temperatures are favored for Hawaii, with somewhat higher odds than during the
610 day period over central and eastern parts of the island chain.

Below normal precipitation is favored for southern Mainland Alaska in the
week-2 period under anomalous northerly flow downstream of the amplified ridge.
Above normal precipitation is favored for northern Mainland Alaska, consistent
with all ensemble model precipitation forecasts. Downstream of the trough over
the North Pacific, enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation are
likely for most of the western CONUS and  parts of Northern Plains, supported
by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Near to below normal
precipitation is favored for far eastern portions of the eastern CONUS (except
for parts of the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and the
Ohio Valley, where above normal precipitation is forecast), under the predicted
ridge and above normal 500-hPa heights. The precipitation consolidation
supports enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation for the Hawaiian
Islands. There is a greater than 60% chance of above normal precipitation for
Kauai and Oahu today.



The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average (3 out of 5), due to
overall agreement on the evolving mid-level circulation pattern, with
differences in temperature and precipitation forecast tools for some areas.


FORECASTER: Luke H

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
January 15.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19980102 - 20220103 - 19951203 - 20121203 - 20081230


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19980102 - 19951202 - 20220105 - 20121202 - 20081228


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Dec 29, 2025 - Jan 02, 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    B     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Dec 31, 2025 - Jan 06, 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  A    B
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    B     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$