617
FXUS06 KWBC 031901
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Thu July 03 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 09 - 13 2025

The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble models generally agree on the overall
500-hPa height pattern over North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The manual height blend is based on 0Z ensemble means,
weighing the ECMWF model greater due to recent model skill. The manual blend
shows a mid-level trough and below normal heights over Mainland Alaska and the
northern Gulf of Alaska. Farther south, a weak trough (in the full height
field) is predicted near the Oregon coast. A mid-level ridge and positive
500-hPa height anomalies are forecast across most of the Western Contiguous
United States (CONUS) with the 594-dm height contour forecast to envelop much
of the southwestern quarter of the Lower 48 states. The ensemble means predict
the center of the subtropical high to be centered over Arizona (and briefly
southern California) during this period, with a local maximum height of about
597 dm. Despite a weak trough predicted over the Eastern CONUS, positive
500-hPa height anomalies are forecast from the Northern Plains eastward across
much of the Great Lakes region and Northeast. This represents the southern
extent of broad mid-level anomalous ridging centered over central and southern
Canada. For approximately the southeastern quarter of the CONUS, 500-hPa
heights are favored to be near normal. Weak positive height anomalies (+30
meters) are depicted for the Hawaiian Islands.

Daily uncalibrated 2-meter temperature anomalies from the ensemble means, and
the reforecast temperature tools support above normal temperatures over most of
the western and eastern thirds of the CONUS. This is consistent with mid-level
ridging and positive height anomalies in the West, and widespread southerly
surface flow from the Gulf in the East. The southerly flow in the East is due
to the clockwise circulation of air around an anticyclone predicted to be
centered off the Southeast coast. A very sharp temperature gradient is
indicated near the West coast, attributed to unseasonably cold water just off
the coast and very warm air a short distance inland. Marine layer intrusions
commonly occur with high pressure over the eastern Pacific and low pressure
inland over the far western CONUS. Maximum probabilities favoring above normal
temperatures (70-80%) are depicted over portions of the Interior West. Below
normal temperatures are favored for central and south-central portions of the
Great Plains, supported by the ECENS and the CMCE, but not the GEFS. Below
normal temperatures are also favored across most of Alaska tied to mid-level
troughing and below normal heights. For the Aleutians, the temperature guidance
varies widely, and near normal is thought to be the most likely outcome. A
compromise between the automated and consolidated temperature tools favors
above normal temperatures across all but the Big Island (where near normal
temperatures are favored), largely mirroring the sea-surface temperature
pattern expected around the Hawaiian Islands.

Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Alaska, excluding the far
western Mainland, due to persistent surface low pressure forecast over the
northwestern Gulf of Alaska and ensuing onshore flow. Above normal
precipitation is also favored for most areas east of the Rockies, consistent
with the various reforecast precipitation tools and GEFS and ECENS raw
precipitation. This is also reasonable given the predicted mid-level trough and
expected presence of a near-stationary front, which is roughly collocated with
the 40-50% probability enclosure favoring above normal precipitation. The below
normal precipitation favored over the Central Great Basin is consistent with a
mid-level ridge, positive height anomalies, and enhanced subsidence aloft. With
the predicted ridge axis in the vicinity of central or northern Arizona,
monsoonal moisture (or perhaps moisture related to a gulf surge originating
from tropical activity over the eastern Pacific) may overspread southern
Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. A majority of the precipitation guidance
supports wetter-than-normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest and
northern Intermountain region, downstream of a weak trough forecast near the
Northwest coast. Wetter-than-normal conditions are also favored across Hawaii
based on the automated precipitation forecast.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 out of 5, with
overall good agreement among models on the mean mid-level height pattern,
offset by uncertainty related to differences among temperature and
precipitation forecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 11 - 17 2025

ECWMF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern
over North America during the 8-14 day period remain in overall good agreement.
In the manual blend, the predicted trough over Mainland Alaska is forecast to
weaken, though below normal 500-hPa heights are still expected to dominate
nearly all of the state. Anomalous ridging is depicted across much of southern
and especially eastern Canada, with the southernmost extent of this anomalous
ridging extending over the northern tier of the U.S. The full field height
pattern features a weak trough over the Pacific Northwest, a ridge over most of
the remainder of the West, and broad troughing across the East. Associated with
the western CONUS ridge are positive height anomalies and a 594-dm height
contour enveloping much of the Southwest. Near normal 500-hPa heights are
predicted across Hawaii.

Below normal temperatures are favored for nearly all of Alaska in the 8-14 day
period, under a predicted trough. Below normal temperatures are also favored
over central and south-central portions of the Great Plains, and adjacent parts
of Missouri, supported by the consolidation tool and the ECENS reforecast
temperature tool. Above normal temperature probabilities are elevated for most
of the remainder of the CONUS, with maximum probabilities of 50-60% depicted
from the central Rockies into the northern Plains and northwestern Minnesota,
and also for most of the Gulf Coast and Southeast Coast. The widespread area of
favored above normal temperatures is consistent with most of todays
temperature guidance. The anomalous warmth indicated across the West is also
supported by a mid-level ridge and positive height anomalies, while in the East
it is largely supported by low-level southerly flow and weak positive height
anomalies at the 500-hPa level. Above normal temperatures are favored across
the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the temperature consolidation and
automated temperature tool.

The week-2 precipitation outlook is similar to that predicted for the earlier
6-10 day period. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Alaska
(excluding parts of far western Mainland Alaska where near normal precipitation
is favored) due to onshore flow associated with surface low pressure over the
northwestern Gulf of Alaska. Most models and the consolidation favor enhanced
probabilities for above normal precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest
in week-2. Above normal precipitation is favored from most of the eastern and
central CONUS southwestward into southern New Mexico and southern Arizona.
Slightly higher odds for above normal precipitation (40-50%) are indicated for
the Mid-Atlantic, southern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This area coincides
approximately with the southern flank of a broad mid-level trough and a
predicted near-stationary front that are forecast to enhance precipitation
amounts. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii in week-2,
consistent with the precipitation consolidation and the Auto blend of
precipitation tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 out of 5, due to
good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak
and conflicting signals especially in the precipitation guidance for many areas.

FORECASTER: Anthony A

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20070618 - 20060621 - 20050629 - 19790717 - 20030628


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060624 - 20010702 - 20070618 - 19530620 - 20040612


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 09 - 13 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 11 - 17 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$