252
FNUS73 KMQT 151153
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Baraga Co Flash Flooding...BIA
National Weather Service Marquette MI
753 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION... Training thunderstorms over the Keweenaw Bay area
produced locally heavy rainfall upwards of 2-3" this morning,
prompting the issuance of Flash Flood Warnings. Reports of washed out
roads were received. Latest radar trends reveal lingering showers,
even a few thunderstorms, to the south west in S Houghton county
lifting north. These should remain clear of the area, but may briefly
pass by the flooded areas. If so, generally light to moderate rain
0.1-0.10" should be expected. The Keweenaw Bay area should remain
precipitation free until later this evening. An approaching low
pressure system is slated to increase winds out to the S-SE with
gusts upwards of 20-25 kts. Strong to severe storms are expected to
move from Wisconsin into the western UP late this evening between 8pm
and 11pm EDT. With these storms, gusty severe winds and hail will be
possible. An additional 0.25 to 0.5" of rainfall is possible,
however, storms will be moving through the area quickly and are not
expected to linger. After a brief lull in winds behind the passing
front, gusty 25-30 kt southerly winds develop Friday afternoon.
Additional light rainfall returns late Friday into Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........55 at forecast start...Max 76.
RH..................98 percent at forecast start...Min 54 percent.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Surface winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 13 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  46  42  39  27  22  22  21  16  17
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............55  57  60  62  65  67  71  74  75  76
RH..............98  95  88  82  75  72  64  57  55  54
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Surface wnd spd.3   6   6   6   9   9   9   13  13  13
Surface wnd gst.7   15  15  15  21  21  21  23  23  23

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Rain showers in
                    the evening. Chance of thunderstorms through
                    the night. Chance of rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Pcpn amount.........0.08 inches.
Surface winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph shifting to the south 9 to 10 mph
                    with gusts to around 21 mph overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........25  26  41  60  67  77  75  67  61  48  37  25
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC DEF CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  40  50  80  50  50  40  10  0   0   0
Temp............75  73  71  67  65  63  62  61  60  58  57  56
RH..............56  60  64  74  79  86  86  89  90  93  91  86
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.13  13  13  12  12  12  10  10  10  10  10  10
Surface wnd gst.24  24  24  24  24  24  21  21  21  17  17  17

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 53 percent.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
Surface winds.......South winds 9 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
                    increasing to 36 mph in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19  15  22  29  40  56  63  67  71  70  68  68
Weather cov.....                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                            SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50
Temp............54  55  56  58  63  64  65  65  65  64  64  62
RH..............88  82  78  72  61  57  55  53  53  53  54  59
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.9   9   9   13  13  13  16  16  16  16  16  16
Surface wnd gst.20  20  20  28  28  28  36  36  36  36  36  36

$$
Forecaster...BW
Requested by...Will Wiggins
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2514054.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christopher.wiggins@bia.gov