Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
410
FNUS73 KMQT 061214
FWSMQT
Spot Forecast for Summit Lake...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
714 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0730 EST on November 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Over the past 24 hours, rounds of rainfall dropped around a half inch
of rain near the wildfire. The Yellow Dog RAWS is showing 24hr
rainfall of 0.62in, matching well with radar estimates of
0.50-0.60in. Low cloud cover lingers this morning, but drizzle and
shower activity has wrapped up. Expect dry weather to persist through
the rest of the work week. Meanwhile, winds remain light today,
coming in mainly out of the NNW before backing more westerly this
evening. Temperatures peak in the mid 40s, with RH only falling to
around 70% this afternoon. Westerly winds pick up Thursday, gusting
to around 20mph during the afternoon. However, RH only falls to
around 50% as temperatures climb into the upper 40s.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........38 at forecast start...Max 46.
RH..................100 percent at forecast start...Min 71 percent.
Dewpoint............37.
33-foot winds.......Winds north at 7 mph at forecast
start...otherwise Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds up to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise
700-2600 ft AGL increasing to 2200-3300 ft AGL
in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor (118) at forecast start. Max...fair
(277.0).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at forecast start...max
3.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......1.2 increasing to 6.2.
TIME (EST) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........72 55 49 38 48 52
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............38 39 43 44 44 43
Dewpoint........37 38 38 37 36 36
RH..............96 96 83 75 73 77
33 ft wind......N 7 NW 6 NW 6 NW 7 NW 7 NW 7
20 ft wind......N 6 NW 5 NW 5 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6
Wind gust.......10 10 10 11 10 10
Mix hgt (ft)....700 1700 2600 3000 3300 2200
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
VIndx kt-ft/100.9 16 18 21 27 20
Ceiling (kft)...1.2 2.1 2.2 4.9 4.5 6.2
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 30.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Dewpoint............34 decreasing to 31 early in the morning.
33-foot winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph after 3
am.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming west around 4 mph after 3
am.
Mixing height.......0-1100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (3.0).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......5.1 increasing to 13 early in the evening, then
decreasing to 11 late in the evening decreasing
to 7.8 late in the evening increasing to 14
increasing to 20 overnight decreasing to 7.1
decreasing to 5.3 after 3 am increasing to 7.8
increasing to 11 early in the morning.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........53 52 42 44 46 47 41 36 36 39 38 37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............40 37 35 34 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 31
Dewpoint........36 36 35 34 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 31
RH..............86 98 100 100 100 97 97 98 100 100 100 100
33 ft wind dir..NW NW NW W W W W W W W W W
33 ft wind spd..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5
20 ft wind dir..NW NW NW W W W W W W W W W
20 ft wind spd..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4
Wind gust.......7 7 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Haines index....3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3
VIndx kt-ft/100.11 3 0 1 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Ceiling (kft)...5.1 14 13 11 7.8 8.6 14 20 7.1 5.3 7.8 11
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 47.
RH..................Min 60 percent.
Dewpoint............32.
33-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to around 24
mph.
20-foot winds.......West winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 19
mph.
Mixing height.......200-1400 ft AGL increasing to 2200-3500 ft AGL
in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (48.0-474.0) increasing to good to
excellent (469.0-665.0) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......8.4 decreasing to 5.0 early in the morning,
then decreasing to 4.0 late in the morning
increasing to 5.3 late in the morning
increasing to 6.6 increasing to 7.9 early in
the afternoon increasing to 12 increasing to 17
late in the afternoon increasing to 21.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........33 34 40 38 43 45 39 30 22 17 15 14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............32 32 33 35 37 40 42 44 46 47 46 44
Dewpoint........31 31 33 33 34 34 34 34 33 33 33 34
RH..............96 97 100 95 87 78 71 65 61 60 61 65
33 ft wind dir..W W W W W W W W W SW SW SW
33 ft wind spd..10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 ft wind dir..W W W W W W W W W SW SW SW
20 ft wind spd..8 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Wind gust.......16 16 16 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.2
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5
VIndx kt-ft/100.5 6 5 6 12 29 47 63 67 66 59 47
Ceiling (kft)...8.4 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 5.3 6.6 7.9 12 17 21
$$
Forecaster...LC
Requested by...Clara Nieland
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2425008.11/MQT
.DELDT 11/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sm.fs.midc@usda.gov