048
FXUS63 KMQT 302102
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
402 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northerly to northwesterly winds expected into this
  evening. Gale Warnings in effect for the east half of Lake
  Superior, with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected over the
  land.

- Light to moderate lake effect snowfall expected to continue
  through next week as a cooler than normal airmass resides over
  the region.

- The next chance of widespread snowfall comes with a fast-
  hitting Clipper Low Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Afternoon GOES water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a mid level
trough present over the Great Lakes with the main driving shortwave
southeast of the UP. Beneath it, a 1008 mb low pressure is moving
over southern Ontario and high pressure is building over the
Northern Plains in its wake. The radar mosaic is reflective of
trailing north becoming northwest LES showers as a result of the
cold 850 mb temps between -14C and -16C descending across Lake
Superior per the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

In the wake of the low: deep moisture is now gone, low levels
continue to dry out, and inversion heights settle to around 5-7 kft.
With QPF between 0.05-0.10", additional snow accumulations broadly
will be trace to 2" over the northwest wind snow belts through
tonight. That said, a few CAMs highlight stronger convergent bands
setting up over Alger and Luce Counties for a few hours this
evening/tonight, yielding higher amounts up to 3-4" (10-30% chance).
Winds taper off through tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes,
but gusts in the east and near Lake Superior hold in the 20-35 mph
range into this evening. Temps continue in the 20s the rest of today.

Tonight will be much colder in the single digits in the interior to
teens by the lakeshores, coldest interior west where a few spots may
dip below 0 (25% chance). Although light winds are anticipated, wind
chills are expected in the single digits above/below 0 into Monday
morning. High pressure shifting east from the Plains to the Great
Lakes by Monday morning means light LES showers shift from the
northwest to west-southwest wind snow belts for Monday. Similar
thermodynamic profiles to this afternoon suggest low impacts are
expected where LES showers are present during this period. Rolling
and drifting snow is anticipated in the Keweenaw tomorrow where
southwest wind gusts will frequent the 20-30 mph range. Otherwise
temps warm into the upper teens to upper 20s on Monday.

A shortwave and weak surface trough drop southeast over the CWA
Monday night. The better forcing remains outside the UP and
unimpressive thermodynamic profiles persist, but a uptick in snow
shower coverage is anticipated over the Keweenaw and near Lake
Michigan thanks to more than supportive delta-Ts. Similar lows in
the single digits to teens are expected Monday night, but wind
chills will be a bit warmer.

There is pretty decent model agreement in an Alberta Clipper Tuesday
night into Wednesday bringing the next round of widespread snow.
That said, amounts will not be impressive. NBM 24 HR probabilities
of just 2" struggle to reach 20% in the south-central and are only
30-60% over the western spine and north-central. Wednesday night
into Thursday presents 850 mb temps into the -20C to -24C range as a
mid level trough progresses over Ontario, meaning additional LES
showers and cold temps across the UP. Lows Wednesday night will be
in the single digits with highs on Thursday in the teens. Wind
chills will hold in the single digits above/below 0 during this
period. Beyond this midweek system, model guidance diverges on track
and timing of the next clipper system Friday/Saturday, but an active
and cooler pattern looks to continue into December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Primarily MVFR restrictions are expected into this evening under a
northwest lake effect regime. SAW initially starts off at IFR as the
last push of heavier snow moves through. Winds between 10-15 kts
with gusts to around 25 kts at CMX/SAW are expected this afternoon.
Winds become west tonight ~5 kts and southwest by Monday morning at
~10 kts. This wind shift lifts lingering LES showers and MVFR cigs
out of IWD and SAW, but keeps MVFR restrictions at CMX into Monday
morning where showers persist. Upgraded PROB30 groups to TEMPO
groups at CMX to capture those expected impacts. The timing in which
CMX returns VFR on Monday will ultimately depend on how fast the
winds shift southwest, and as a result, how long it takes the LES
showers to lift north. 12Z may be too optimistic, but this
improvement should occur by the end of the 18Z TAF period. Otherwise
gusts to ~25 kts return on Monday at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Northwest winds of 20-30 kts with gales to ~35 kts over the east
continue into this evening. Significant wave heights are at their
peak this afternoon between 4-9 ft, highest over the southeastern
waters. Winds settle from west to east to ~20 kts or less by late
tonight, gradually backing west by Monday morning as high pressure
moves in over the Great Lakes. Waves briefly settle around or below
4 ft late tonight/early Monday. Maintained Gale Warnings as is.

High pressure gives way to the east and a low pressure trough
descends southeast over the lake on Monday, increasing southwest
winds to 20-30 kts with a 30% chance for gale force gusts to 35 kts.
Strongest winds will reside over the central waters, particularly
between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw. This increases significant
waves to 4-9 ft again, this time highest waves will be over the
northern waters. Westerly winds fall below 20 kts by Tuesday morning
with waves settling below 4 ft by a similar time.

The pressure gradient tightens with a Clipper Low Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Southwest winds increase once again to 20-30 kts Tuesday
night, veering northwest on Wednesday behind the cold front and
maintaining between 20-30 kts overnight into Thursday. This system
brings the best shot at gales to 35 kts during the forecast period
(40-60% Wednesday into Wednesday night) as a cold airmass descends
overhead accompanied by strong pressure rises. Significant wave
heights build to 6-12 ft, highest southeast. The elevated winds/waves
and cold airmass support light to moderate freezing spray across the
lake, and likely some heavy freezing spray over the north central
waters (60% chance).

Winds fall back down to 20-30 kt for Thursday into Friday with the
resumption of high pressure near the Great Lakes, though uncertainty
increases late this week into the weekend as models differ on the
arrival and strength of the next system.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ245>248-251-
     265-267.

  Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for LSZ249-250-266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77