093
FXUS63 KMQT 272256
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
656 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of winter storm systems are slated to bring impactful
  winter precipitation in the form of sleet, snow, and freezing
  rain Friday through Sunday.

- Freezing rain accumulations of 0.01-0.50" are expected Friday
  morning through Saturday morning. Be prepared for potential
  travel delays and power outages.

- Northeast gales of 35 to 40 knots are expected over the
  western half of Lake Superior Friday afternoon through
  Saturday.

- A secondary system could bring heavy, wet snow Saturday night
  through Sunday, in addition to sleet, freezing rain, and rain.
  However, confidence is low on where the axis of heaviest
  precipitation will be.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Afternoon RAP analysis has mid level troughing over NE Ontario and
sfc high pressure building over N Manitoba and Ontario. The
associated low has made it to far E Hudson Bay around 1006mb and the
cold front has made landfall over the N half of Upper MI. Some mid
to low level clouds have developed over the E, particularly near
Lake Superior where the lake breeze has aided in development. This
also meant high temps in those areas were achieved early today and
temps now reside in the 30s. Outside that influence, temps have
warmed into the 40s with some low to mid 50s in the S central. With
lack luster moisture, no precip is anticipated as this cold front
leaves the CWA. That said, NE upslope flow may result in some
nuisance -sn/dz/flurries over Marquette County this afternoon (~15%
chance). That said, no accumulations or impacts are expected.

Dry weather otherwise continues into tonight as the high pressure
ridging moves overhead and shifts to the E. Attention then turns to
an approaching system from the N Rockies bringing a wintry mix that
continues into the weekend. A strong baroclinic zone sets up over
the UP with strengthening WAA aloft out ahead of this deepening low.
With moisture increasing late tonight, f-gen to the N looks to kick
off some -sn over the Keweenaw, N central highlands and E half. As
PoPs begin to expand over the remainder of the UP toward sunrise, a
warm nose aloft begins to introduce -fzra/ra to the mix. This could
create some slick conditions ahead of the Fri morning commute, but
the main impacts are anticipated later in the fcst. Otherwise, lows
are mainly expected in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

The first round of the expected winter weather/ice storm develops
over us Friday as the warm front of a Clipper phases with a weak
shortwave lifting into the Great Lakes region. With antecedent dry
air having to be overcome, expect precipitation rates to be fairly
light during the morning. Yet even still, expect a strong negative
layer below a strong positive layer across most of the area Friday
morning, with profiles saturating up to 5 kft. With forcing being
strong in the low levels, we could see up to a tenth of an inch of
ice accumulate across the area Friday morning as temperatures
progressively warm throughout the day. It does look like that
freezing rain will be limited to the higher elevations of Marquette
& Baraga counties and the Keweenaw by Friday afternoon as
temperatures across most of the area warm to or just above freezing,
allowing the transition to rainfall across most of the U.P..
Speaking of the Keweenaw, with the warm nose not being as strong
further north, snowfall and sleet have a better chance of mixing
into the precipitation throughout the day; currently, the forecast
calls for northern Houghton and Keweenaw counties receiving up to a
quarter inch of ice and up to 4 inches of sleet/snowfall Friday
morning through Friday night. Thus, I`ve put them under a Winter
Storm Warning for the multiple precipitation types and associated
hazards expected. As for the rest of the U.P., colder temperatures
overspread the region Friday night, possibly allowing significant
ice amounts to accrete across most of the rest of Upper Michigan.
Precipitation rates look to be highest during the evening hours,
when we could see convective showers and thunderstorms. Indeed some
marginally severe hail is not out of the question as the mid level
lapse rates get to 7-8C/km, the HRRR has MUCAPEs over 1000J/kg in
spots, and the 0-6 km bulk shear is expected to be around 70 knots
(granted, most of it is between the inversion in the lower levels
and the free atmosphere in the mid to upper levels). Thus, while not
expected, it is technically within the realm of possibility for us
to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for hail with freezing rain
being the main p-type (didn`t have this on my personal list for
things I`d experience in my career!). As the thunderstorm threat
dies down and the band of precipitation heads southeastwards later
Friday night, we could see the transition over to light sleet and
light snow late in the northern U.P. before the system wintry mix
ends Saturday morning. Overall, while we could see up to a tenth of
an inch of ice across most of the area Friday morning (exceptions
are the far west and southern Menominee County near the city), we
could expect to see another tenth to half inch of ice accumulate
Friday night across the area before the the system precipitation
ends Saturday morning. Thus, Baraga and Marquette counties are now
under and Ice Storm Warning, whereas the counties bordering
Wisconsin, Ontonagon, and southern Houghton counties are only under
a Winter Weather Advisory as ice accumulations are projected to
greatest in the north and east. As for the eastern counties, at the
neighboring office`s request, we kept Delta/Alger eastward under a
Winter Storm Watch.

As we experience a general lull in the precipitation Saturday, we
could see some upslope snow/freezing drizzle/sleet showers over the
highlands of Marquette and Baraga counties throughout the day as
northeasterly flow continues across Upper Michigan. As the second
system, a low lifting from Colorado, lifts towards the Upper Great
Lakes late Saturday, expect wintry precipitation to return across
the area.

While confidence remains low on the track of the Colorado low at
this time, with the models trending further northwest with the
track, the axis of heaviest snowfall has shifted from the interior
west and north central to far west and Keweenaw. This would in turn
bring additional sleet, freezing rain, and rain into the central and
eastern U.P. in comparison to the previous forecast. The event looks
to continue until Sunday night/Monday as high pressure builds in
from the north. This second round could bring additional significant
wet snowfall and ice to the area; additional power outages and
disruptions to travel are probable given the lack of a `break` in-
between the winter weather events.

Another system could impact us during the middle of next week. Keep
your eyes on this, as more snow and ice could be seen across the
area with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions prevail into tonight. The next system approaching
from the west deteriorates conditions at all TAF sites to IFR by
Friday afternoon and introduces a wintry mix of precipitation that
impacts much of the coming weekend. Further deterioration down to
LIFR is possible later on Friday with ice accumulations at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Weak high pressure building in from the west this afternoon will
weaken winds to 20 knots or less this evening ahead a Clipper low
coming in from the Northern Plains tonight through Friday. As this
low approaches, expect east to northeast winds to increase,
eventually becoming northeast gales of 35 to 40 knots over the
western half of the lake Friday afternoon into Saturday. While gales
look to weaken late Friday night into Saturday, northeast gales up
to 35 knots are still possible Saturday into Sunday. Expect the
winds to slowly back to the north and eventually the northwest
throughout the weekend into Monday, with the winds looking to
eventually become 20 knots or less again late Monday night. Keep an
eye out on the wintry mix of precipitation types late tonight
through Sunday night!

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     MIZ001-003.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday to 8
    PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for MIZ002-009.

  Ice Storm Warning from 8 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     MIZ004-005.

  Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
     for MIZ006-007-013-014-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday to 8
    PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for MIZ010>012-084.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday to 2 AM EDT /1 AM
     CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP