973
FXUS63 KMQT 241700
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
100 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A seasonably strong system moving north of the Great Lakes is
  bringing hazardous marine conditions such as strong winds and
  potentially waterspouts to Lake Superior and northwestern
  Lake Michigan the rest of today into Monday.

- Cooler than normal temperatures and lake enhanced to lake
  effect rain showers are projected throughout the rest of today
  into tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Early this morning water vapor imagery and model analysis showed a
slow moving upper level low pressure near James Bay with multiple
shortwave troughs rotating around it. Showers were developing over
the western U.P in response to an approaching shortwave and
associated reinforcing cold front. Temperatures were mainly in the
50s though with the relatively warm waters over Lake Superior some
shoreline locations were in the low 60s.

The shortwave moving through the area this morning will continue to
provide an opportunity for scattered showers over the U.P today.
Cold air advection in the low levels will result in increasing
instability over Lake Superior with cool air moving over the
relatively warm waters. This will also help aid with lake effect
rain showers developing through the day. Cloud depths don`t make it
too far above the -10C level resulting in more of a warm rain
process. Capped the NBM thunder probabilities to remove any mention
of thunder from the forecast but still wouldn`t rule out a few
rumbles of thunder with the shortwave this evening that brings a
period of deeper moisture.

Large waves and gusty winds will make for hazardous beach conditions
along much of the southern Lake Superior shoreline today into Monday
with a high risk for rip currents. Have issued beach hazards for
Alger and Marquette Counties through Monday.

It will be cool today, around 10F to 15F below normal with highs
only in the mid 50s over the highlands. Elsewhere expect highs
mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s over the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Lake enhanced rain showers continue over the northwest wind belts
Sunday night as the maxima of the cold air advection moves overhead.
However, as expect the cloud cover and showers to diminish Monday
from west to east as ridging start nudging back in, with the showers
now expected to end by Monday evening. With the European ensemble
still highlighting notably cooler than normal temperatures Sunday
night through Monday night, expect the lows Sunday and Monday nights
to drop into the 40s in the interior, with the upper 30s potentially
being possible in the coldest spots of the interior west Monday
night after skies have cleared out; while not expected at this time,
we could see a patch or two of frost in the coldest spots Monday
night if the temperatures trend a few degrees cooler than the NBM
forecast. Otherwise, with breezy (but less so than today) conditions
continuing to Monday over Lake Superior, expect dangerous swim
conditions to remain over the Alger County beaches until early
Tuesday morning. Calmer weather is expected for Tuesday as weak
ridging moves through the region; sunnier skies and temperatures
around normal are expected by then.

A cold front poorly resolved by the NBM is expected to impact the
U.P. around the Wednesday night time period, bringing additional
light rain showers to the area and temperatures a little below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

MVFR to VFR cigs continue through the rest of this afternoon as one
more subtle shortwave cycles down from northern Ontario over our
area, bringing additional -shra to the terminals. However, once this
shortwave passes this evening, expect the terminals to improve to
generally VFR cigs as the -shra chances drop. While we could still
drop down to MVFR from time-to-time throughout the overnight hours,
expect the dominate category to be VFR as ridging starts to build
back into the region once more. As we head into Monday, expect the
clouds to clear out from west to east in response to the ridging
building into the Upper Midwest. Nevertheless, expect the gusty
northwesterly winds to remain across the TAF sites over the next 24
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots are being seen across Lake
Superior today as cold air advection continues to funnel into the
area from a parent low over James Bay. Given the difference in
temperature between the warm lake and cool air aloft (and given that
the winds aren`t too strong), we could see some waterspouts near
mainly the southern lakeshores of the lake the rest of this
afternoon to Monday. In addition, while not expected, we could see a
rogue gale or two up to 35 knots this afternoon to Monday (up to
~10% chance) as gusty winds continue through the rest of this
weekend to Monday ahead of an behind a tertiary shortwave swiping
the area late tonight. However, expect the winds to generally be a
touch weaker Sunday through Monday as the pressure gradient weakens
a little. As ridging begins to nudge into the region on Monday,
expect the winds to progressively weaken from west to east,
eventually becoming 20 knots or less Monday night. Lighter winds are
expected through Tuesday as the weak high pressure ridging moves
through the area. However, expect winds to pick up once again to
around 20 to 30 knots from the southwest to west ahead of an
incoming cold front Wednesday over the western and central lake,
although light winds of 20 knots or less are currently predicted
behind the front at this time for Thursday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TAP