933
FXUS63 KMQT 061123
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather persists as showers depart the eastern UP this
  morning.

- Gusty northerly winds will result in dangerous swimming
  conditions in Marquette, Alger, and Luce counties today.

- Cooler, more seasonable, temperatures return to the Upper
  Peninsula for the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Early morning RAP analysis and GOES Satellite imagery reveal low
amplitude troughing overhead the Upper Great Lakes with a weak sfc
trough extending SW from Quebec into southern Wisconsin. A cold
frontal boundary follows the same trough axis, supporting light rain
showers in the east and s-central UP. Temperatures have begun to
cool off largely in the 60s as of writing this discussion. Patchy
fog is noted on webcams across the region as recent rainfall has
moistened the lower atmosphere and should persist into the morning
hours, though increasing winds and drier air working into the region
through day break will help burn off any remaining fog. As for
rainfall, a blanket 0.5 to 2" was observed this evening, save for
portions of the interior southwest who received less from spotty
afternoon convection.

Heading into the tail of the holiday weekend, quiet weather with
cooler temps will be the rule. Mid-level ridging will work eastward
this afternoon, bring a return to quiet and sunny conditions, while
a cooler airmass in place provides much-needed relief from the heat.
Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s across much of the UP, but only
in the 60s near Lake Superior. Despite the return to sunny and clear
conditions, beach goers and water recreation enjoyers should take
caution today along Lake Superior. Modest pressure rises behind the
passing cold front will aid in gusty 15-25 kt northerly winds this
afternoon and evening, leading to wave heights as high as 2-5 feet
along the Marquette, Alger, and Luce County shorelines. This has
prompted Small Craft Advisories and a Beach Hazard Statement for
dangerous swimming conditions. Stay dry when waves are high!

Temperatures fall back into the upper 40s to lower 50s tonight night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Dry weather persists into Monday with mainly zonal flow aloft and
surface high pressure sprawled out across the Great Lakes. This
gives way to a shortwave ejecting out of the Northern Plains and
potentially overlapping with a slowly moving frontal boundary, which
may support precipitation. While some thunder will be possible with
a few hundred j/kg of MUCAPE and upwards of 30kts of bulk shear,
severe storms are not favored at this time. Following this passing
shortwave, ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to show
another trough digging into the Great Lakes Wednesday out ahead of a
ridge extending from the Plains into central Canada. This keeps low-
end chances for rain/storms in the forecast through the middle of
the work week.

Afterwards, deterministic and ensemble guidance are in more
agreement on the Plains ridge moving over our region Thursday,
perhaps flattening some into Friday ahead of our next trough/frontal
system moving out of the Canadian Rockies later Friday into the
weekend. This would favor dry weather Thursday at least into early
Friday before chances for showers/storms move back in next weekend.
As of right now, nothing really to write home about with this next
system; severe parameters are lackluster, but will note that PWATs
look to rise to near/above an inch which could point to some decent
rainfall totals in storms.

Otherwise, look for temperatures to come in more or less seasonal
through the coming week with highs ranging generally in the 70s and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Morning satellite imagery shows clearing skies approaching the UP as
a trough departs to the east and ridging aloft works into the
region. VFR conditions will be the prevailing flight category today
as soon as fog lifts from SAW, which may be suffering from moist
upsloping. To the west, both IWD and CMX have already reported CLR
skies. Conditions may lift to MVFR/IFR briefly at SAW before fully
embracing VFR conditions by 15/16z at the latest. Otherwise, expect
gusty N to NE winds upwards of 20 kts through the afternoon at all
sites, eventually becoming less than 10 kts tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Early morning webcams across Lake Superior show varying degrees of
dense fog over the lake, so have opted to extend the ongoing Marine
Dense Fog Advisories across all LS marine zones through 12z this
morning. Increasing northerly winds and a drier airmass will work in
across the region through daybreak and burn off remaining areas of
fog. Otherwise, modest pressure rises behind the cold frontal
boundary`s passage will aid in gusty northerly winds this afternoon
and evening, peaking between 15-25 kts, and developing 3-5 ft
waves. Winds and waves will lessen to calm overnight into Monday as
sfc high pressure becomes planted overtop the lake.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ005>007.

Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     LSZ162-240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW