889
FXUS63 KMQT 090456
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1256 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost and/or freeze conditions will be possible tonight for
  inland areas of Upper Michigan.

- Dry weather prevails until Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Primarily dry and sunny conditions prevail today with high pressure
sprawled out over the Great Lakes. However, weak radar returns and
lake clouds remain present over the eastern UP with NW flow off of
Superior. This is expected to continue to taper off into the evening
hours as our rather dry airmass wins out. Otherwise, temperatures
this afternoon are peaking in the lower to mid 50s.

Tonight the transiting high will result in continued light winds,
plenty of subsidence, and the dry airmass, providing another night
of effective radiational cooling. Occasional lake effect cloud cover
may move over the east, but additional precipitation is not
expected. Temperatures tonight fall back into the upper 20s to lower
30s for most of the interior UP, though some spots may fall further
into the mid 20s if some of the hi-res guidance is to be believed.
30s still look good for the most lakeshore communities. However,
given that we are in the second week of October and that we had a
good freeze for many last night, will not be issuing any
frost/freeze headlines. Temperatures rebound into the upper 50s to
lower 60s Thursday afternoon. Thursday may be a little breezy as
well, with widespread 15-20 mph southwest winds, potentially higher
in downslope prone locations along the Lake Superior lakeshore.

Thursday night, a sharp shortwave/upper level low will dive
southeast through Manitoba into Ontario. As it reaches Lake Superior
and Upper Michigan on Friday, a surface low will develop along the
eastern lakeshores followed by the pair continuing southeast into
the lower Great Lakes Saturday/Sunday. The system will pull a weak
cold front through the region which will be the focus for the
developing surface low. This will help support scattered rain shower
activity Thursday night into Friday morning across the west and
Friday into Friday evening in the east. Much of the UP is looking to
get a wetting rainfall during this time period, with widespread rain
totals around 0.20-0.30. However, ensembles show around a 20-30%
chance for some higher embedded totals up to a half an inch.

Mid-level ridging builds in afterwards, stretching atop the
departing closed low and spanning much of middle CONUS. The
departing system may interact with a tropical system in the eastern
Atlantic, eventually resulting in a closed low hovering along the
east coast into next week. Upstream, another shortwave lifts
northeast along the ridge`s western periphery, which brings the next
chance of rain showers in the late Sunday/Monday timeframe.
Otherwise, look for temperatures to run slightly above normal the
rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period along
with light winds early this morning. However, southerly winds will
increase late in the period with gusts of 20 to 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Winds remain light the rest of today into tonight, coming in around
10kts or less while gradually turning over to the south. Thursday,
an upstream cold front will press closer to the region as the high
departs to the south and east. In response, winds mainly out of the
south increase to around 20-25kts by the afternoon. Thursday night
when the front is moving into the region, these winds increase to
near 30kts. Some guidance suggests the potential for low end gales,
namely the GFS and EC. The latter`s ensemble system currently
suggests ~30-40% for gales across parts of western and eastern Lake
Superior, which is an upward trend. After this system exits Friday,
northwest winds shift to northeasterlies as the departing system
begins stalling and interacting with a potential tropical off the
east coast, and another wave approaches from the west. Meanwhile,
after Friday, expect winds to briefly fall below 20kts for Saturday.
By Sunday, the upstream system moves closer to the region, resulting
in southeasterlies increasing to near 25-30kts. These elevated winds
gradually subside Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC