766
FXUS63 KMQT 120035
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
835 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are possible in the western UP
  during the late afternoon and evening, mainly towards the
  MI/WI state line.

- More showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday. Some of
  these storms may produce strong winds and heavy downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Afternoon water vapor and RAP analyses reveal midlevel ridging
sliding east of the Great Lakes, a shortwave rippling across the
Central Plains, and a deeper trough digging into the Dakotas. Closer
to home, the UP remains under hazy skies as upstream wildfire smoke
continues to stream through the area. Satellite also reveals some
upper level cloud cover moving through at times, associated with the
shortwave currently over IA, and some daytime cumulus popping up over
most of the western half of the UP. Cumulus remains fairly low-
topped so far, but with MLCAPE already up to 1000j/kg per the RAP,
would not rule out some deeper mixing as we head into the heat of
the day. Some isolated showers/storms could eventually pop, with
guidance continuing to favor the far southwestern UP for any
daytime convection (perhaps due to deeper mixing or terrain
influences). Strong storms are not expected, but one would still
want to mind any lightning potential when spending time outdoors!


Tonight into Saturday, the shortwave currently moving through IA
heads into WI while the Northern Plains trough moves into MN,
acquiring a negative tilt. These two features eventually phase
Saturday morning, with much of the guidance showing low pressure
closing off right over the Upper Peninsula by early Saturday
afternoon. An initial batch of showers and perhaps some embedded
storms move into mainly the central and eastern UP late tonight,
courtesy of WAA on the nose of a strengthening southerly LLJ that
will be directed across the LP. A widespread tenth to quarter-inch
of rain will be possible in the eastern UP late tonight into early
Saturday.

As the warm front lifts out of the eastern UP mid/late morning
Saturday, a brief dry period is favored across most of the UP -
though, will note that some of the CAMs still favor spotty
shower/storm activity into the late morning behind the warm front.
That said, the cold front associated with the Northern Plains trough
will already be reaching the western UP around 12Z Saturday, with
PoPs sneaking back in from west to east as this progresses through.
Destabilization ahead of the front (MUCAPE up to 1000-1500j/kg) and
a modest ~35kts of bulk shear per the HREF continues to indicated a
potential for some stronger storms. The main concern would be gusty
winds, but taller storms could produce some hail. SPC has placed
most of the area in a Marginal (category 1 of 5) for severe. Another
concern with these storms is the potential for heavy rainfall. PWATs
increase to as high as 2in, with soundings featuring deep warm cloud
depths of around 10-12kft. Meanwhile, with rather short corfidi
vectors, storms may have trouble moving off the boundary. Any
training/backbuilding could therefore present a risk for excessive
rainfall; WPC has the UP in a Marginal (category 1 of 5) for
excessive rain that could lead to flash flooding. Storms begin to
move out of the eastern UP late Saturday evening, with most of the
guidance showing us drying out by midnight.

Otherwise, look for temperatures to fall back only as far as the
lower 60s tonight, and peak in the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow.
Wildfire smoke working back in behind the cold front may keep skies
hazy even as we gradually clear out behind the cold front. If any
smoke can reach the surface, this could result in drops in air
quality.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The extended period starts off with quiet and generally dry weather
Sunday into Monday with surface ridging behind the exiting cold
front. However, a weak midlevel shortwave moving through later
Sunday may bring an increase in cloud cover, and some spotty rain
showers are not totally out of the question. Temperatures come in
slightly warmer, peaking in the lower/mid 80s both days across most
of the UP.

By early Tuesday, split flow sets up over the CONUS with mainly
zonal flow over the northern tier and sprawling ridging to the
south. Guidance is in agreement on broader troughing dropping from
the northern Prairie provinces into Ontario, and another, tighter
wave moving through British Columbia. There is also general
agreement on either a broad surface low or trough developing either
over Ontario or the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through the
UP and bringing our next chances for showers/storms Tuesday into
WEdnesday, though differences in timing and strength persist among
guidance. After another brief period of ridging behind the front
Wednesday, the aforementioned western shortwave moves towards the
Great Lakes late next week, with another round of PoPs on the way.

After next week`s cold front, daytime highs look to climb only into
the upper 60s to near 70 Wednesday onwards. Overnight lows are
largely expected to be in the 50s and 60s, with potential for may
interior locations to cool into the low to mid 40s behind next
week`s front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 834 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites into tonight, but warm
front lifting into the region lowers cigs to MVFR/possibly high end
IFR early in the day Fri. SHRA and some possible emended TSRA lift
over the UP with this warm front before a cold front begins its
track E across the UP resulting in additional SHRA/TSRA. Have VCTS
and a tempo for transient -TSRA near IWD early on.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Winds generally remain below 15kts through tonight into early
Saturday. However, winds turning over to the WSW increase to around
20kts across the western half of the lake late Saturday with a
passing cold front. Winds remain elevated through Sunday before
falling back below 15kts Monday, then increase to around 15kts out
of the southeast Tuesday. This will coincide with some disturbances
moving through the Great Lakes Region over the weekend. With these
disturbances, showers and thunderstorms will overspread the lake
from west to east late tonight through Saturday. Further out,
additional shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany a Clipper
system late Monday through Tuesday. Also of note, patchy fog could
result in reduced visibilities across far western portions of the
lake tonight if we can pick up on any precipitation.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...LC