008
FXUS63 KMQT 102259
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
659 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering spotty showers in the eastern UP this evening give
  way to dry weather this weekend. Our next chances for rain
  move in early Monday.

- Gales persist across north- and east-central portions of Lake
  Superior through the early evening, then quickly fall back
  into tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

RAP analysis shows a compact low pressure moving over northern Lake
Superior, with a cold front already having traversed most of the
Upper Peninsula. Midlevel water vapor reveals drier air curling in
behind the front, so skies have unsurprisingly largely cleared out.
Still, some cumulus streets have been able to re-develop across the
central and western UP. To the east, even with the initial batch of
showers moving out, wraparound convection and some lake enhancement
will keep in a chance for some spotty showers the rest of the day
and into the first half of the night. Winds remain elevated this
afternoon, gusting to around 20-30mph across most of the UP, with
higher gusts to 30-40mph over the Keweenaw, but expect winds to
rapidly fall back tonight as the low moves into southern Ontario and
a ridge begins to build over the Great Lakes. As winds lighten up
and skies clear at least partially in the western UP, expect
temperatures there to plummet into the 30s - and perhaps upper 20s
in the higher terrain. Cloud cover over the eastern half of the UP
looks to keep temperatures warmer tonight, with lows ranging in the
lower to mid 40s.

Expect dry weather into the weekend with ridging over the area.
Daytime highs Saturday look to peak near 60F and then widespread low
to mid 60s Sunday. Broad troughing begins to establish itself across
the Northern Rockies and the initial wave lifting northeast from the
base results in a surface low lifting from the Dakotas into Manitoba
Sunday. A warm front associated with this system presses into the
Upper Great Lakes Sunday night followed by its cold front Monday.
Rain looks to move into the region thanks to these features Sunday
night then gradually taper through the day Monday. This will also
lead to another period of gusty winds Sunday into Monday courtesy of
a tight pressure gradient. Another high looks to build across the
region afterwards through the middle of next week before the next
low lifts out of the Central Plains Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures run cooler after Monday with highs in the 50s and lows
in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Expect generally VFR conditions at IWD as the skies have cleared
over there and the high pressure ridging moving in will keep the
area generally cloud-free throughout the period. As for CMX,
generally VFR conditions are expected although some remnant lake
effect cloud cover could drop cigs down to high-end MVFR late
Saturday morning (thinking around a 50% chance). As for SAW, the
gustier NW to N winds will continue on for a few more hours before
dwindling later tonight. While we are seeing VFR conditions at the
moment over SAW this evening, expect the cigs on the lake effect
cloud cover to drop down solidly into MVFR, potentially flirting
with IFR near dawn Saturday morning. As the skies clear by early
afternoon Saturday, expect VFR conditions to return across the
entire U.P.

Across the terminals, expect the NW to N winds to calm down tonight
before sfc flow becomes weak from the SE and E Saturday. No LLWS is
expected tonight, although there is a low (10% or less chance) that
we could flirt with marginal conditions at CMX and SAW early this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

NW gales to 35-40kts persist across the north- and east-central
portions of the lake this afternoon behind a passing cold front.
Wave heights, already already as high as 4-6ft, build to around 5-
8ft and perhaps higher to around 9ft in east-central Lake Superior.
Incoming high pressure in the wake of the passing system will work
to quickly lower winds below gale force later this evening then
below 25 kts by early Saturday. While calmer seas prevail Saturday,
a developing low pressure in the N Plains will increase S winds
Sunday and Monday. Currently, guidance suggests a 40-80% chance for
S gale-force gusts both days. Winds quickly fall back below 20kts
into Tuesday as a ridge builds in once again.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243>250-
     264>266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...LC