104
FXUS63 KMQT 120819
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
419 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions
  persist today and into the first half of the work week with
  warm, dry, and breezy weather.

- Southerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph will remain common today,
  with the highest gusts in the downsloping areas near Superior.

- Chances for rain return late in the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Early morning RAP analysis and GOES satellite imagery reveal a broad
ridge overhead the central and eastern CONUS while troughing in the
west supports a sfc low in the Northern Plains. Additionally, a
closed upper low still spins directly overhead Louisiana.

Hot, dry, and windy southwest flow from the desert SW into the Upper
Midwest will support another day of fire weather concerns across the
region. High temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to
upper 80s in Upper Michigan this afternoon, with guidance hinting at
90 in the western downsloping locations. Flow off Lake Michigan will
keep temperatures in the east slightly cooler, only rising as high
as 80 with the immediate lakeshore closer to 65-75. Soundings across
the west and central indicate very efficient and deep mixing into an
extremely dry airmass aloft, and with RHs already poorly recovering
overnight (~25-50% as of writing this at 3am), this should support
lower RHs between 15-25% today, especially in the west half.

Winds today will be "relatively" lighter compared to yesterday, as
deep mixing upwards of 800mb transfers 15-25 kt (20-30 mph) gusts to
the sfc. This, in combination with warmer temperatures and
potentially lower RHs, will aid in elevated to critical wildfire
conditions. Please follow all local burn restrictions!

Winds taper off slightly overnight, with gusts falling below 20mph
across most of the area. However, 20-25 mph gusts remain possible
overnight in the higher terrain and where southerly winds are
downsloping. Temperatures fall back only as far as the upper 40s to
mid 50s across most of the area, with the downsloping spots across
the western UP possibly still hovering in the mid/upper 50s
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 418 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Overhead ridging and sfc low pressure moving northeast from the N
Plains into Ontario will support another warm and dry day Tuesday,
however, lighter winds and increasing moisture advection from a
northward lifting closed low will help to limit fire weather
concerns. Still, afternoon RHs could dip as low as 20-30% across the
interior west with high temps pushing 85-90 (70-80 elsewhere, 65-70
near Lake Michigan). And after previous critical fire weather days,
drier fuels could support one more day of elevated wildfire
potential.

Relief from the extended dry period and persistent fire weather
concerns finally arrives this midweek into the following weekend.
The aforementioned western trough slowly moves through the Plains
Wednesday through Thursday, with a cutoff low finally moving across
the Great Lakes sometime later Thursday through Friday. Ahead of
this, a Gulf connection will allow a PWAT airmass to work in as
early as Wednesday (ensembles favor PWATs in excess of an inch, or
as much as 200% of normal). There remains some disagreement in the
specifics on timing/track; perhaps the ridge remains a little more
stubborn, slowing the eastward progression of this coming system.
However, the general theme among ensemble and deterministic guidance
is a couple rounds of widespread rainfall - and even some thunder! -
sometime in the Thursday through Saturday period, along with a
gradual cooling trend that will bring temperatures closer to normal.
Latest NBM guidance suggests much welcomed rainfall amounts upward
of 0.25-0.5" through Friday, though this could be locally higher
where convective elements provide a boost.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions continue as high pressure and very warm air hang
over the area. Expect weaker southerly winds today, although we
could gust up to 20+ knots in some spots (mainly IWD/SAW).
While low- level turbulence is a problem early this morning,
with the winds weakening aloft over SAW, expect to see the
problem resolve itself over there before sunrise. As for CMX and
IWD, the stronger winds aloft look to hold on a little longer,
allowing for low-level turbulence to remain until/to just after
dawn. Low-level turbulence may also return tonight as the high
pressure overhead begins to weaken.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Very similar to the prior day, southerly winds continue to gust to
around 20-30 kts across the central and eastern portions of the lake
today, with a few gale-force gusts not out of the question
especially near the shorelines of the north-central and eastern UP
courtesy of downsloping enhancement. Winds fall back slightly
overnight, with S wind gusts to around 15-20 kts across much of the
lake following Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pressure moves out of the
Plains into the Upper Great Lakes later in the week, which could
bring elevated winds above 25 kts Thursday onward.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...BW