885
FXUS63 KMQT 150746
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
246 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and somewhat warmer weather returns late tonight into
  Saturday before the next chance of rain late weekend.

- Still plenty of model uncertainty regarding storm system
  developing over the Midwest/Great Lakes region for mid-late
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery shows mostly cloudy to
overcast low cloud coverage over the UP this morning. METARs across
the UP are showing cloud ceilings around or below 3000 ft with a few
sites reporting some lower visibilities, with webcams at the WFO
showing shallow fog in the area. RAP analysis shows that the UP is
in a saddle point between a cutoff low to the southeast, a trough
over Manitoba, and a pair of ridges over Quebec and the southern
Plains respectively.

With precipitation ended across the UP, the main forecast challenge
for the morning will be the fog. The 00Z HREF shows the central
third of the UP having the best coverage of fog, with 30-50% chances
of sub-1 mile visibility bounded to the west by US-141 and to the
east by US-41. Further west, isolated spots of high terrain over the
west could also see some fog, but might need some upsloping winds to
support that scenario. Upsloping winds may be hard to come by, with
extremely low pressure gradients, surface winds over 5 mph are
essentially limited to the marine zones with the HREF showing only
20% chances of exceeding such winds this morning across much of the
UP. Any remaining fog will dissipate through the morning, though
clearing skies will only make it to the far west by 00Z this
evening. Still, expect temps to remain above normal today, with
highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s, relatively high compared to the
normal of 38 at WFO MQT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the Rockies
and a ridge over the Mississippi Valley and trough off the east
coast 00z Sat. Troughing moves into the northern plains 00z Sun with
ridging over the ern U.S. The shortwave moves into the upper Great
Lakes 12z Sun and this moves into New England by 12z Mon. Went dry
into Saturday afternoon before introducing some slight chance pops
in the far south late in the afternoon. NBM appeared to be overdone
with pops Saturday night into Sunday and went with drier and slower
consall.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a trough in the Pacific NW,
a trough in the southern Rockies into the southern plains and one in
New England with a ridge over the sern U.S. 12z Mon. The trough in
the southern plains heads northeast into the upper Mississippi
Valley 12z Tue and becomes negatively tilted. This trough never makes
it here though as it heads north and gets absorbed into a deep
trough that develops over the plains 12z Wed and then develops into
a strong closed off 500 mb low over the lower Ohio Valley/Mi
Mississippi Valley 12z Thu where it remains into 12z Fri. Not real
confident in track of this system later in the week, but right now
it looks like it will be south of the area. Looks mainly like rain
will be the dominant pcpn type with some snow mixed in at times.
Temperatures go from above normal to slightly above normal for this
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Light rain has ended across the area; however, IFR to LIFR ceilings
persist across the western and central Upper MI. Ceilings will
improve from west to east later this morning. At IWD, MVFR ceilings
have already developed, with VFR conditions expected to develop
after sunrise. CMX will see LIFR conditions persist overnight. As
winds shift to become westerly this morning, conditions will become
VFR. At SAW, conditions are currently bouncing around between VFR
and IFR. IFR ceilings will persist overnight before improving to VFR
by early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Winds remain light at 20 knots or less into Saturday afternoon
before increasing from the south to 15 to 25 knots late Saturday
afternoon as a low ejects from the troughing pattern and lifts from
the Rockies towards northern Ontario. Winds build up to 20 to 30
knots over the lake Saturday night ahead of the low`s cold front,
and could gust up to westerly gales of 35 knots behind the cold
front Sunday. Winds weaken to 20 knots or less again by next Monday
as high pressure ridging returns to the area. As the upper-level low
over the western U.S. slowly makes its way eastward into the central
U.S. mid to late next week, expect a low to lift towards the Upper
Midwest. This low is expected to bring stronger east to
northeasterly winds back across the area, with the stronger winds up
to 30 knots possibly coming in as soon as next Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...07