390
FXUS63 KMQT 072308
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
608 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread 2 to 4 inches of snow expected with up to 6 possible in
southern Menominee County through Saturday.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures will become below
normal next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Visible GOES imagery and KMQT/CASMR radar reflectivities show a
diminishing trend in lake effect snow showers and cloud cover down
wind of Lake Superior across north-central and eastern Upper
Michigan. Low level convergent flow off the Bayfield and Arrowhead
has also supported a band of snow streaming east of Duluth across
the Apostles into the Keweenaw. Webcams show some periodic light
snow showers. Low inversion heights and a relatively dry background
environment appear to be suppressing shower potential. Additionally,
surface ridging extending north is helping this band to lift north
and increase low-mid level subsidence, which has helped the band to
become more ill-defined via satellite. The same ridging has also
supported a clearing trend to overnight clouds across the interior
west which has enabled skies to clear. Temperatures have mostly
warmed into the teens and low 20s across the region.

Expect the lake effect over the region to gradually diminish and
lift north into Lake Superior this afternoon and evening while the
aforementioned band lifts north of Houghton this evening. Both the
showers in the east and band in the Keweenaw may yield an inch or
two of snow through overnight, but impacts are not expected.
Upstream, synoptic snow will press eastward across
Minnesota/Wisconsin overnight, then spread into the west half by
early morning. Overnight lows should dip into the single digits
above zero for areas removed from the lakeshores. Lakeshore
communities look to bottom out in the low teens to near 10.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

The long term forecast period kicks off with low amplitude phasing
shortwaves shooting eastward of out the Front Range and southern
Plains, bringing WAA driven light to moderate snow through Saturday
before transitioning to lake effect snow in the north to northwest
wind snowbelts on Sunday. Guidance over the past 24 hours has
trended the heaviest QPF axis further north, originally over central
Wisconsin, now targeting the Green Bay area. Some uncertainty
remains in where the heaviest snowfall axis will set up, as
deterministic guidance show subtle differences in the f-gen response
and strength closer to the Menominee county. Recent 12z ensemble
probabilities have come into better agreement as well, depicting a
~40-80% probability (highest GEFS) for at least 3" along the UP/WI
border, with Menominee county receiving the greatest chances closet
to the fgen circulation and heaviest precip. SLRs will be closer to
~15:1 in the south-central UP with a steady increase toward 17-18:1
northward, yielding 6 hourly snowfall amounts ~1-2 inches along the
UP/WI border, less to the north, from 06z through 00z Saturday.
Therefore, before we transition to lake effect snow overnight into
Sunday, expect a widespread 2-4" through Saturday with locally
higher amounts closer to 3-6" near Menominee Township. Have opted to
continue the Winter Weather Advisory for Menominee county through
06z Sunday, however, if guidance continues to jog north tonight and
upstream observations are pointing towards heavier snowfall, an
upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning may be warranted. Expect some
impacts to travel beginning Saturday morning, especially closer to
Wisconsin.

Otherwise, precipitation the rest of the weekend and into the
following week will be dominated by lake effect processes. Behind
the departing sfc reflection, a shot of cold 850mb temps ~-20C will
kick off lake effect snow for the northwest to west wind snowbelts
Sunday. Another 1-3 inches seems reasonable where terrain
enhancement and dominant banding set occur. Into the mid-week, a
clipper shortwave diving southeast into Ontario late Monday / early
Tuesday brings a reinforcing blast of cold air, dropping 850mb temps
closer to -25C lake wide behind a cold front. This will provide an
uptick in lake effect snow for the NW wind snowbelts. Current
deterministic guidance has a good signal for lake induce troughing
and convergence, particularly over Luce/Alger counties.

Temperatures continue to trend near normal to below normal through
the long term forecast period. Expect daily highs in the teens to
20s with lows falling below zero in the interior west. The coldest
day will be Tuesday into Wednesday where temps will only top out in
the single digits west and teens elsewhere, then drop below zero to
around -15 for the interior west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

VFR conditions will continue tonight at all sites ahead of a system
that will spread snow across the area on Saturday. As snow moves in,
conditions will drop to IFR first at IWD and last at SAW. Conditions
at times could drop to LIFR in the heavier snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Heavy freezing spray ends by this evening as high pressure
ridging clips the region from our southwest. Winds continue to
weaken to 20 knots or less after midnight tonight as a weak
pressure gradient moves through the lake, but pick up to 20-25
knots Sunday behind a passing system and increased cold air
advection. Winds lessen to below 25 knots until Tuesday, where a
cold front passing through the region bumps winds back up to
25-30 knots from the northwest through Tuesday evening. Current
guidance has a relatively low prob of gales to 35 knots (~30%),
but would expect to see an increasing trend through the weekend
considering the magnitude of cold air spilling over the lake
behind the front.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MIZ012.

Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LSZ243>251-264>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...07
MARINE...BW