656
FXUS63 KMQT 171145
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
745 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect unseasonably warm temperatures and breezy conditions
  today. A rogue gust or two up to 35 knots/40 mph cannot be
  ruled out between Munising and Grand Marais late this
  afternoon.

- After a break this morning, a cold front brings rain chances
  back from west to east this afternoon through this evening.
  The greatest rain chances are in the eastern U.P. this
  evening.

- Several days of lake enhanced/effect rain showers are expected
  from Monday night through the middle of next week. Expect
  breezy conditions on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A warm front moving through and out of the U.P. this morning brings
rain showers over the north, central and east before ending over the
aforementioned areas around 8 AM EDT. While most spots have seen
only light rainfall amounts (around 1 to 3 tenths of an inch), with
more vigorous showers over the south central dropping a little
heavier rainfall over there over the past few hours, we do have some
spots in the south central approaching 1 inch. As this band of
showers continues into the rest of the central and east this morning
during the pre-dawn hours, we could see an additional half inch or
so across these areas before the rain showers cease over the U.P.
this morning.

With the warm front out of area by late this morning, expect
generally dry but warm and moist conditions as we become
unseasonably warm today, with highs getting into the mid 60s in the
east to lower 70s in the west. With a southwesterly LLJ at around 40
kts at 850mb today and some breaks in the cloud cover, we could see
some gusty southwesterly winds at the sfc today up to 30 mph,
especially over the downslopes in the east where a rogue gust or two
up to 40 mph isn`t out of the question this afternoon (thinking from
Munising to Grand Marais a.k.a. around the Pictured Rocks area). As
the cold front starts to move into the western U.P. early this
afternoon, we could begin to see showers and potentially a non-
severe thunderstorm or two develop just ahead of and along the
frontal boundary (20 to 40% chance). As the front continues to push
eastward with time the rest of this afternoon into this evening, the
synoptic forcing will improve. Thus, expect the rain chances to
improve the further east one is across the Upper Peninsula later
this afternoon into tonight, with the central U.P. having around a
30 to 50% chance of measurable rainfall and the east a 50 to 80%
chance. While generally only light rainfall of around a few
hundreths to a couple tenths of an inch are expected across most of
the U.P. with the cold front`s passage this afternoon and evening, a
few spots could see up to a half inch or more of liquid in the
heavier showers and storms. As the cold front passes through
tonight, expect the winds to die down from west to east behind it.

Even behind the cold front, expect temperatures to be fairly mild
and above normal still on Saturday as partly cloudy skies allow high
temperatures to reach into the 60s to even potentially 70 across
Upper Michigan. However, a secondary cold front looks to bring more
normalized temperatures back across the region Saturday night. While
we may see some showers and a storm or two over the far east during
the day Saturday, we could see rain chances spread a little bit back
to the east Saturday night into Sunday as the cold air advection
associated with the secondary cold front wraps into a shortwave low
lifting along the frontal boundary from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
Saturday night to Lower Michigan Sunday morning. This may set us up
for some lake enhanced rain showers over our area, mainly the east
(30 to 60% chance, highest over the east). As the shortwave passes
the U.P. to the east on Sunday, expect highs in the lower to mid
50s; the rain showers look to end over the east Sunday evening as
high pressure ridging quickly moves over the area.

Expect the dry conditions Sunday night into Monday morning to not
last all that long as a troughing pattern over the Plains quickly
moves towards the Upper Midwest, eventually coalescing into a robust
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. As this
occurs, expect rain showers to return to the area Monday night and
to continue through the mid-week as cold air advection and
shortwaves rotating around and into the low bring lake enhanced to
lake effect rain showers across the region. In addition, with the
robust cold air advection bringing 850mb temperatures of around -4C
to the region, we could see strong northwesterly gusts up to 30 to
40 mph across the U.P. Tuesday, with the highest gusts expected in
the Keweenaw. The rain chances look to remain until late next week
when the troughing finally leaves and is replaced by ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 744 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Radar shows main warm frontal precip band shifting to the eastern UP
as of 12z Fri, with showers becoming isolated in coverage over the
western half. Flight categories have mostly improved to VFR across
the west, with a mix of VFR/MVFR in the east and some intermittent
IFR cigs around SAW. Expect an improving trend through this morning
as rain continues to push off to the east. Winds will remain breezy
out of the south-southwest around 10 kt gusting to 20 kt at most
sites through much of the period, but LLWS concerns will ease
through 16z Fri as profiles become more unidirectional with height
and winds aloft start to diminish. Mainly VFR for the rest of the
period. Showers redeveloping from west to east this evening as a
cold front pushes through the region after 00z. Could see a few
embedded thunderstorms with this feature, but probability is too low
for inclusion in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Southerly winds to 20 to 25 knots over the open eastern lake and 20
to potentially even up to 30 knots along the southerly downslopes
early this morning increase to 20 to 30 knots with a few gale force
gusts up to 35 knots possible (10 to 30% chance) over the eastern
lake by late this afternoon as a cold front moves in from the west
this afternoon through tonight. Immediately behind the front, we
could see a few southwesterly gusts up to 30 knots before winds die
down to around 20 knots or less late tonight across the lake. Expect
the generally light winds to remain across the lake until a
shortwave low rides up the cold frontal boundary from the Mid-
Mississippi Valley through Lower Michigan into Canada Saturday night
through Sunday; when this happens, expect winds to pick up from the
northwest and north-northwest to 20 to 30 knots late Saturday night
to Sunday across Lake Superior; there is even up to a 30% chance for
gales up to 35 knots over the eastern lake on Sunday. While winds
subside Sunday night into Monday morning as high pressure ridging
moves through the region, expect them to pick up once again Monday
into Tuesday as a troughing pattern over the Plains coalesces into a
29.4 inch low over the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. This in
turn could bring south to southeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots over
the lake on Monday before cold air advection from Canada drops into
the region and brings northwest winds of 30 to gales of potentially
40+ knots across Lake Superior by Tuesday (up to around a 40 to 50%
chance for gales of 35 knots or greater Tuesday according to the
NBM).

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...TAP