337
FXUS63 KMQT 191134
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
734 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow is possible over the interior western and
  north- central U.P. late Sunday night into Monday. Probability
  of exceeding 2 inches is 10-30%.

- Rain and snowmelt will continue to lead to rises on area
  rivers and possible minor flooding on typically flood-prone
  rivers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 444 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis early this morning still has Upper
Michigan under the influence of low-level moisture, but this
should clear out through the course of the day as high pressure
overspreads the area. But first, upsloping rain/snow showers
will be enhanced this morning across the western U.P. as a
trough traverses the forecast area. Any accumulations will be
minimal, though, and non impactful. Currently, local radar
mosaic is still showing some light reflectivity returns across
the east/southeast counties with light rain being reported from
ground based ob in Delta County. Meanwhile, temperatures across
the area are generally in the mid to upper 30s and are projected
to top off in the low to mid 40s later today. The outlier will
be the south central U.P. where highs will climb into the low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

High pressure ~1030mb over the Upper Great Lakes yields dry weather
tonight through Sun. With the drier airmass, mostly clear skies
during this period alongside light winds and subsidence yield a
radiative cooling night bringing temps into the 20s. Some teens
can`t be ruled out in low lying spots, especially where there still
is better snow coverage. SE flow on Sun allows temps to warm up into
the upper 40s to upper 50s, warmer over the W where there is
downslope flow. Mixing will yield some drier RHs near 30% in the
interior, however light winds mainly less than 15 mph leaves fire
weather concerns fairly low.

Attention then turns to a negatively tilted trough which lifts from
the Central Plains on Sun to the Upper Great Lakes for Mon. This
sends a sfc low from NW MO Sun evening to E Upper MI by Mon evening.
There still remains some spread in the low track on Mon impacting
temps and p-type, but confidence in any sn holding off until during
the day Mon is increasing. Isentropic ascent and WAA ahead of the
low kicks precip off (likely -ra) late Sun night from the S. Better
dynamic support arrives on Mon when cooling allows for some sn to
possibly mix in over the W. There is good agreement in ample Gulf
moisture surging N into the region ahead of the low, yielding a QPF
swath between 0.75" and 1.25" over the CWA by Mon evening. With the
ground already wet from prior ra late Sun night and the transition
over to sn occuring during the day on Mon when ground temps will
warm well above freezing, accumulations will be difficult to
achieve. The latest NBM only shows a 10-30% chance for 2" or more of
wet snow with this system, primarily over the high terrain of the W
and N central. The current fcst represents primarily ra with sn
accumulations mainly less than 1". Impacts will likely be low for
the Mon commutes, but will need to pay attention to river rises.

Dry weather briefly returns to the UP Mon night into Tue, however a
weak system tracking N of the region sends a frontal boundary over
the UP increasing PoPs into Tue night. Otherwise, a warming trend is
expected mid to late next week bringing temps for much of the UP
well into the 50s with some 60s possible near WI. Lows during this
period are expected in the 30s, mainly above freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 734 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Skies continue to clear out this morning with CMX already at VFR
levels. IWD and SAW, however, have been a bit slower to clear out
and will likely remain at MVFR into at least early afternoon. At
that point, they will then be VFR through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Northwest winds are expected across the lake today, mainly less than
20 kts over the west and around 20 kts over the east. Winds across
the lake settle below 20 kts this evening, holding through Sunday as
high pressure passes east overhead. A low pressure system tracking
northeast over the Upper Great Lakes on Monday brings the next
period of elevated winds to Lake Superior. Winds increase out of the
east to 20-30 kts Monday morning and back northwest for Monday
evening; gales are unlikely (25% chance or less). Winds then settle
to 20 kts or less for the middle of next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...Jablonski