613
FNUS73 KMPX 150753
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Swenson Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
253 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on May 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Clouds will increase this morning, becoming overcast
shortly after sunrise. Showers/thunderstorms, some strong to severe,
over SD/NE early this morning will push northeast through late
morning, weakening as they move east but likely reaching the burn
site by about 100pm. Wind speeds will become quite strong by
late morning into the afternoon, coming mainly from the ESE.
Sustained speeds will increase to near 20mph with gusts around 35mph
by early afternoon.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers in the morning, then showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................84 percent at ignition...Min 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 10 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 10 to 18
                    mph with gusts to around 35 mph increasing to
                    18 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph late
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /7200 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /71700 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 23 mph increasing to 28 to 30
                    mph late in the morning.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............63  65  66  68  70  72  72  71  69  69  69  68
RH..............84  78  75  73  68  66  66  71  78  78  76  70
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..10  12  13  15  17  17  18  18  18  20  20  18
20 FT wind gust.21  22  24  26  29  31  32  33  35  35  33  32
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.2 1.7 2.4 2.4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.15  16  20  21  23  29  30  30  30  28  28  29

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
                    rain showers in the evening, then rain showers
                    likely overnight.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 14 to 17 mph with gusts to around
                    31 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (66200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to fair (21000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 23 to 29 mph.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely
                    early in the morning, then rain showers in the
                    morning and early afternoon. Rain showers
                    likely late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 14 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    west around 14 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts
                    up to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (48800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 23 mph shifting to the west 17
                    to 23 mph in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Calderone
Requested by...Bob Bale
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514041.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert.bale@tnc.org