380
FNUS73 KMPX 161234
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Morris Piles...FWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
634 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on January 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Northwest winds will shift south this afternoon.
Highs will reach the mid 30s with high humidity remaining. No
precipitation is expected.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........25 at ignition...Max 35.
RH..................88 percent at ignition...Min 78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 12 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 7 to 12
                    mph shifting to the south around 8 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /6500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...poor
                    /11300 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 15 mph shifting to the south 8 to 9
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............25  27  29  31  32  33  33  33  32  30  30  29
RH..............88  85  81  78  78  78  78  78  78  81  85  88
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  10  9   8   7   7   7   8   8   9   10  12
20 FT wind gust.20  17  15  14  13  14  14  14  15  16  18  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  15  13  12  9   8   8   9   9   13  15  17
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........Min 28.
RH..................Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 14 mph shifting to the west
                    early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4300 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 20 mph shifting to the west 14 to
                    16 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 36.
RH..................Min 75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Windy. Northwest winds 15 to 23 mph increasing
                    to 26 to 32 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (107400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 16 to 23 mph increasing to 32 to 39
                    mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Borghoff
Requested by...Millette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500712.0/MPX
.DELDT 01/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov