155
FXUS63 KMPX 061143
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures the next few days, with Monday being the
  coldest as highs struggle to reach 40 degrees.

- Warmer temperatures (50s/60s) arrive Wednesday into next
  weekend.

- Chances for rain Wednesday & Thursday, but no significant
  precipitation accumulation the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Today through Tuesday night... Clear skies persist across the
region, allowing temperatures to fall steadily into the 20s and
low 30s. It will be a chilly start to the morning but
temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s by mid-
afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will see some cloud cover move in,
but it shouldn`t impact the overall pleasant Spring day. We`ve
opted to nudge winds higher as the mostly sunny skies promote
deeper mixing this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 25 mph seem
likely out of the W/WNW. This shouldn`t prevent anyone from
enjoying the pleasant weather this Sunday. However, an compact
shortwave trough will approach tonight into Monday, driving
another cold front through the area. This will usher in cooler
temperatures to start the new work week & breezy northerly
winds. Our further east Wisconsin counties may see some isolated
snow showers with the frontal passage (Rusk/Chippewa/Eau
Claire). Our lows will once again fall below freezing meaning
another chilly start to Monday.

Monday would be a great day if it were late February... but it`s
April. Breezy northerly winds between 10 to 15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph expected. Our high temperatures will range from the
mid 30s to 40 but our wind chills will struggle to "warm" above
30 Monday afternoon. By Monday night, the surface high will be
centered over Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes, and this
will promote efficient cooling with clear skies and light winds.
Further, it`s likely the coldest remaining night until
November. Low temperatures will range from the mid teens to the
mid 20s in the warm spot of the inner metro. Tuesday will mark
the start of a gradual warm up as the sfc high pressure shift
eastward. This sets the stage for southerly return flow & modest
warm air advection to ramp up. Highs will range from the low
40s to low 50s, with mostly sunny conditions making it feel more
pleasant.

Wednesday through Sunday... The mid to late part of the week
will see a pattern shift toward a milder, more Spring-like
weather. Unfortunately, there are a few hang ups that will add
some minor complexities to the forecast. Mid level flow will
turn zonal, which will allow for rising heights/warmer
temperatures to settle in. The first complication is on
Wednesday when we see the return of cloud cover & rain chances
across the region. NBM PoPs are in the 20-40 range - so we`ve
opted to keep run with those. This scenario is difficult to
highlight the uncertainty with where the precipitation tracks at
this range. The concern is in our high temperatures as cloud
cover & rain will prevent diurnal heating. As of right now -
we`ve opted to go with temperatures in the 50s & 60s, but it
should come to no surprise to see a few areas with highs in the
40s for those with showers & cloud cover. Thursday looks similar
as another impulse moves across the area. This weak wave will
bring another day of slight to chance PoPs for rain showers. The
good news is our highs warm in the 50s and low 60s again. By
Friday, mid and upper level ridging will begin to build over the
central CONUS, signaling drier & warmer weather for the first
half of the weekend. Friday`s high temperatures could reach mid
60s, with some areas along the Buffalo ridge warming into the
upper 60s with partly to mostly sunny skies. This warming trend
will carry into Saturday, with highs in the mid 60s to upper
60s. A few locations across our SW will once again have the
potential to warm into the low 70s. Winds will turn from the NW
Friday to the SE on Saturday, which will help in the slightly
warmer temperatures. This period should offer the best stretch
of Spring conditions so far, but there is some uncertainty
within guidance. There is a signal for another system to
approaching us for the second half of the weekend (Saturday
night into Sunday). The details of that will have to wait to get
ironed out. The 00z suite varies greatly on the timing of this
system but we`ll likely see a return to more seasonable & cooler
temperatures (50s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR throughout this duration. Only cloud cover expected for all
sites is passing FEW-SCT high cirrus, except for potentially
EAU which is expected to have mid-level BKN ceilings Sunday
night into Monday morning (also a small chance for rain/snow
showers but chances are too low to include in the TAF at this
time). Light/variable winds will pick up from the W and NW as a
mainly dry cold front drops south across the region today.
Speeds will increase to 10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE at 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind NW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC