Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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425
FXUS63 KMPX 130752
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures to start the week (60s & 50s).

- A semi-active, warmer pattern sets up with additional rain
  chances through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Early this morning, the cold front is currently located over west-
central WI (near EAU) while one or two isolated showers linger
behind it. The front, and any remaining rain, will continue east,
exiting our region within the next couple of hours. In its wake,
skies are already in the process of clearing, which will allow for a
mostly sunny Monday. Temperatures will be cooler due to CAA
proceeding the front. Highs in western and central MN will only
reach the mid to upper 50s while areas east will be in the low to
mid 60s. Tonight will be cooler also with lows in central MN
flirting with the mid 30s. However, increasing cloud cover (due an
influx of abnormally high moisture) from the southwest will likely
limit how low temperatures can drop. This increase in moisture will
also bring our next chances for rain, starting early Tuesday
morning. CAMs show a few bands of showers forming along a warm front
that moves northeast into western and southern MN early thru mid
Tuesday morning. Have added 15-30% PoPs for our southwestern and
southern MN counties to better highlight this potential. Tuesday
looks like the coolest day of the period as cloudy skies will keep
highs in the 50s. Another, better chance of rain for the same region
seems likely during the afternoon and evening. An even stronger push
of moisture will surge north as the warm front positions itself over
south-central MN. Have increased PoPs to "likely" category for our
southern and western CWA. Rainfall amounts won`t be too significant,
but 0.25-0.5" looks probable through Tuesday night.

A chance for rain showers in western MN lingers into Wednesday along
the periphery of the northward moving thermal ridge. This thermal
ridge will be advected north (into the Northern Plains) by southerly
low-level flow ahead of an incoming upper-level trough. As the
thermal ridge moves overhead after mid-week, temperatures will once
again climb well above normal. Highs Thursday and Friday are
currently forecast to reach the mid 60s to even mid 70s!
Precipitation chances increase during Wednesday night (especially
over the northern half of MN) as the southerly LLJ strengthens ahead
of the aforementioned trough. This will act to create convergence
and lift at the nose of the LLJ allowing for showers and possibly a
couple of thunderstorms to form early Thursday. This activity act as
an effective warm front and move northeast into the Upper Great
Lakes/Ontario Thursday night. Meanwhile, guidance mostly agrees that
a surface low will develop over the Dakotas as the upper-level
trough begins to pass through the Northern Plains. This low will
also travel northeast, dragging a cold front with it and giving us
another chance of rain to end the work week as the front slides
through. Rainfall with these waves doesn`t appear to be too intense,
but mean QPF from the Grand Ensemble suggests over 1" of rain could
be possible for south-central MN by the time the week is over.
Stepping up to the 75th percentile of the ensemble results in 1-1.4"
for most of our CWA. Temperatures look to return towards normal for
a few days after the trough passage. However, the long-range
deterministic guidance forecasts a very wavy and amplified upper-
level pattern. This would suggest we may looking at a continued more
active weather with rises and dips in temperatures for later
October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The cold front currently stretches meridionally from the MN/WI
into southeastern MN. Some light mist/shower activity is
immediately ahead of the front while scattered showers linger
just behind the front. This precip will travel east with the
front over the next few hours, finally passing east of EAU after
09Z. Have continued -SHRA for MSP, RNH, and EAU for at least
another hour with a TEMPO for a brief reduction to MVFR cigs.
Skies clear immediately behind precip resulting in VFR the
remainder of the period for all terminals. South-southwesterly
winds ahead of the front will turn northwesterly after frontal
passage slowing to 5-10 knots overnight. Northwesterly winds
will increase to near 10 knots during Monday before slowing and
turning more northerly Monday evening.

KMSP...Continued prevailing -SHRA until 07Z with skies quickly
clearing afterwards. VFR expected the entire period. North-
northeasterly winds of 5-10 knots expected after 06Z Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG