


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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425 FXUS63 KMPX 130752 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 252 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures to start the week (60s & 50s). - A semi-active, warmer pattern sets up with additional rain chances through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Early this morning, the cold front is currently located over west- central WI (near EAU) while one or two isolated showers linger behind it. The front, and any remaining rain, will continue east, exiting our region within the next couple of hours. In its wake, skies are already in the process of clearing, which will allow for a mostly sunny Monday. Temperatures will be cooler due to CAA proceeding the front. Highs in western and central MN will only reach the mid to upper 50s while areas east will be in the low to mid 60s. Tonight will be cooler also with lows in central MN flirting with the mid 30s. However, increasing cloud cover (due an influx of abnormally high moisture) from the southwest will likely limit how low temperatures can drop. This increase in moisture will also bring our next chances for rain, starting early Tuesday morning. CAMs show a few bands of showers forming along a warm front that moves northeast into western and southern MN early thru mid Tuesday morning. Have added 15-30% PoPs for our southwestern and southern MN counties to better highlight this potential. Tuesday looks like the coolest day of the period as cloudy skies will keep highs in the 50s. Another, better chance of rain for the same region seems likely during the afternoon and evening. An even stronger push of moisture will surge north as the warm front positions itself over south-central MN. Have increased PoPs to "likely" category for our southern and western CWA. Rainfall amounts won`t be too significant, but 0.25-0.5" looks probable through Tuesday night. A chance for rain showers in western MN lingers into Wednesday along the periphery of the northward moving thermal ridge. This thermal ridge will be advected north (into the Northern Plains) by southerly low-level flow ahead of an incoming upper-level trough. As the thermal ridge moves overhead after mid-week, temperatures will once again climb well above normal. Highs Thursday and Friday are currently forecast to reach the mid 60s to even mid 70s! Precipitation chances increase during Wednesday night (especially over the northern half of MN) as the southerly LLJ strengthens ahead of the aforementioned trough. This will act to create convergence and lift at the nose of the LLJ allowing for showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms to form early Thursday. This activity act as an effective warm front and move northeast into the Upper Great Lakes/Ontario Thursday night. Meanwhile, guidance mostly agrees that a surface low will develop over the Dakotas as the upper-level trough begins to pass through the Northern Plains. This low will also travel northeast, dragging a cold front with it and giving us another chance of rain to end the work week as the front slides through. Rainfall with these waves doesn`t appear to be too intense, but mean QPF from the Grand Ensemble suggests over 1" of rain could be possible for south-central MN by the time the week is over. Stepping up to the 75th percentile of the ensemble results in 1-1.4" for most of our CWA. Temperatures look to return towards normal for a few days after the trough passage. However, the long-range deterministic guidance forecasts a very wavy and amplified upper- level pattern. This would suggest we may looking at a continued more active weather with rises and dips in temperatures for later October. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 The cold front currently stretches meridionally from the MN/WI into southeastern MN. Some light mist/shower activity is immediately ahead of the front while scattered showers linger just behind the front. This precip will travel east with the front over the next few hours, finally passing east of EAU after 09Z. Have continued -SHRA for MSP, RNH, and EAU for at least another hour with a TEMPO for a brief reduction to MVFR cigs. Skies clear immediately behind precip resulting in VFR the remainder of the period for all terminals. South-southwesterly winds ahead of the front will turn northwesterly after frontal passage slowing to 5-10 knots overnight. Northwesterly winds will increase to near 10 knots during Monday before slowing and turning more northerly Monday evening. KMSP...Continued prevailing -SHRA until 07Z with skies quickly clearing afterwards. VFR expected the entire period. North- northeasterly winds of 5-10 knots expected after 06Z Tuesday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. WED...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...CTG