000
FXUS63 KMPX 170033
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
733 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread light rain persists this evening and comes to an
  end overnight.

- Below-average temperature pattern continues into mid next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A remarkably deep surface low (earlier as low as 980 mb) is
tracking across central Minnesota this afternoon. Steady wind-
driven light rain to the south of the low will continue to
overspread the entire forecast area through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening then gradually taper off overnight.
Precipitation amounts will be light, generally less than a few
tenths of an inch at most. Gusty winds will decrease a bit but
still gust as high as 30-40 mph at times this afternoon and
again overnight as winds switch to northwesterly following the
passage of the low to the north.

Saturday will be dry precip-wise but steady cyclonic low-level
flow/cold air advection through the day will keep persistent
cloud cover in place and will also keep temperatures confined to
the lower/middle 50s through the day, and parts of central MN
may not make it out of the upper 40s. Clouds will scatter out a
bit on Sunday allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 50s
and lower/middle 60s.

The next system of interest will track into the Central
Plains/Midwest early next week with a surface low tracking
across northern MO/southern IA. This track will keep any threat
for strong storms well to the south of the area, and a recent
southerly trend of this track may mean precip struggles to make
it any further north than the I-94 corridor. Should this system
trend a bit northward it could bring some beneficial rains of 1"
to 2" into southern MN, but for now this seems more likely to
occur across Iowa. Ridging behind this system will finally bring
temperatures back to near normal (low 70s) by Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

As the surface low wobbles down into central MN, we`ve started
to see the winds relax, with directions veering toward the
northwest with time. We`ll remain in moist cyclonic flow through
Saturday, which means the clouds will remain in place through
then as well. Models are aggressive with dropping cigs into the
IFR level tonight and we should get there tonight, but did
delay their arrival with this update. Otherwise, TAFs look to be
in good shape, with winds becoming northwest overnight and
remaining there through the day on Saturday with gusts still
going at around 25 kts.

KMSP...Rain will continue for about the first three hours, with
more intermittent showers continuing through 10z. LAV still
drops cigs down to 007 overnight, but upstream obs haven`t
really supported the widespread IFR cigs like the LAV has, so
started to trend cig heights up a bit for the overnight hours.
As for when we`ll shake the clouds, 21z RAP soundings show these
clouds sticking around until around noon on Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 15-20G30kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 15-20G30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...MPG