287
FXUS63 KMPX 060011
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
711 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions into this evening,
  especially across W/SW Minnesota.

- Slight chance (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms across
  western Wisconsin this evening.

- Wind Advisory issued for wind gusts up to 50 mph overnight
  across central Minnesota.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday across W/SW Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 451 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Gusty northwest winds will continue to increase this evening,
reaching their peak speeds after midnight across central
Minnesota. Forecast soundings & high- resolution model output
both highlight the likelihood for wind gusts of 40-50 mph
overnight, with sporadic gusts over 50 mph likely. A Wind
Advisory is in effect for much of central Minnesota from
midnight until 7 AM Sunday morning, when wind gusts will
diminish into the 30-40 mph range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Current satellite imagery reveals a cold front across western
Minnesota this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed up nicely this
afternoon with most locations in the 70s and lower 80s ahead of the
cold front. Locations behind the front have cooled off into the 60s
with gusty northwest winds. Dew points have slowly climbed into
upper 50s ahead of the boundary and that will lead to a few isolated
showers across western Wisconsin this afternoon. Unfortunately
anyone hoping for a widespread rain event will have to continue to
wait another 7+ days with no clear system on the horizon. Behind the
boundary dew points have fallen into the mid 30s and the combination
of gusty winds and low RH values will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns across portions of western Minnesota through this evening.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of W MN until 8 PM.

Overnight we`ll cool back into the 40s with skies clearing out post-
FROPA. This may provide an opportunity for Northern Lights to be
observed as a CME is forecast to impact earth this evening through
Sunday AM. Aurora hunters will need to bring a hoodie to keep warm.
Northwest winds & temperatures in the 40s will feel much more like
Fall versus the current never ending Summer-like temperatures.
Sunday will be closer to average with highs in the 60s but we`ll see
temperatures begin an gradual warm up throughout the new work week.

For Monday thru Friday, we`ll see this stretch of dry & mild
temperatures continue. Highs start off in the 70s thru Wednesday
with 80s Thursday & Friday. Temperatures peak Friday and we`ll have
to monitor just how warm we end up as St. Cloud is currently
forecast to break their record high of 83 on 10/11. Our current
forecast has STC high temp at 84. Another cold front arrives next
weekend but the stretch of above normal temperatures looks to
continue beyond the next 7 days. The latest EPS does not forecast a
high at or below normal over the next two weeks! This matches up
with the 8-14 day CPC outlook is putting out too. The primary
concern will be the elevated fire weather

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period, with gusty
northwest winds peaking overnight. Gusts of 30-40 kts will
develop after midnight tonight and continue until sunrise, with
speeds diminish slightly during the day tomorrow. Before the
winds ramp up overnight, a few hours of LLWS is likely with
speeds up to 45 kts at FL020. Gusts will be more in the 25-30
kts range for most of the day tomorrow, with winds weakening
late tomorrow afternoon & gusts disappearing after sunset. A
band of SCT to BKN stratocumulus will also move into the area
overnight as the strongest winds develop, with ceilings
expected to remain above MVFR levels.

KMSP...Gusty northwest winds are expected through the period.
Gusts up to 30 kts will continue this evening, with stronger
winds expected after midnight. Gusts overnight will generally be
between 30-35 kts, but sporadic gusts over 40 kts can`t be ruled
out. The gusts will begin to diminish by the morning rush
period, with gusts of 25-30 kts lasting into Sunday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S/SE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
     Benton-Douglas-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Lac
     Qui Parle-Redwood-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ETA
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA