650
FXUS63 KMPX 130501
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1201 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers possible this evening & overnight.

- Seasonable temperatures to start the week (60s & 50s)

- A semi-active, warmer pattern sets up with additional rain chances
  through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Scattered light showers are present across central & southern MN
this afternoon. Precipitation has been light so far, but hi-res
guidance supports an uptick in development & rainfall rates this
evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Southeast winds will
gusts up to 35 mph continue through the evening hours before
shifting to the northwest after the FROPA. High temperatures will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s but the gusty winds still make
it feel Fall-like. Latest HRRR develops additional showers along the
front after 00z in W MN. These will move through the metro into the
metro around 03z and W WI shortly after. The signal for QPF hasn`t
been all too impressive - still 0.10" to 0.25" and it will not be
widespread due to the scattered coverage of the precip. Thunder
chances are low, but not non-zero so a rogue rumble isn`t out of the
realm of possibility. Rain will abruptly end after the frontal
passage & winds turn to the NW, ushering in cooler & drier
airmass to start the week. Overnight lows will bottom out in the
40s.

Another taste of Fall is on tap for the start of the week. High
temperatures will range in the 50s and lower 60s Monday & Tuesday,
with Tuesday being the coldest day of the week. The surface high
will begin to shift toward the Great Lakes and E US and this will
usher in a wave of warm air advection precip chances on Wednesday
across S MN. Turning upstream, an upper-level trough will dig in
over the West Coast that will promote southwesterly flow over the
Rockies & Plains. That southerly low level flow will allow our
temperatures to warm for the second half of the week with highs
returning to the 70s on Thursday. Guidance eventually ejects the
western trough into the Central & Northern Plains. The ECMWF brings
a surface low through the the Dakotas and into NW MN by Friday
morning. This will bring additional showers & thunderstorms with the
accompanying surface cold front. Models diverge on how they handle t
his feature with varying difference in placement & timing for next
weekend. It will usher in cooler temperatures that will only be a
few degrees above normal as no significant stretch of
meaningful colder air is on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The cold front currently stretches meridionally from the MN/WI
into southeastern MN. Some light mist/shower activity is
immediately ahead of the front while scattered showers linger
just behind the front. This precip will travel east with the
front over the next few hours, finally passing east of EAU after
09Z. Have continued -SHRA for MSP, RNH, and EAU for at least
another hour with a TEMPO for a brief reduction to MVFR cigs.
Skies clear immediately behind precip resulting in VFR the
remainder of the period for all terminals. South-southwesterly
winds ahead of the front will turn northwesterly after frontal
passage slowing to 5-10 knots overnight. Northwesterly winds
will increase to near 10 knots during Monday before slowing and
turning more northerly Monday evening.

KMSP...Continued prevailing -SHRA until 07Z with skies quickly
clearing afterwards. VFR expected the entire period. North-
northeasterly winds of 5-10 knots expected after 06Z Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG