317
FXUS63 KMPX 302324
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
524 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal conditions continue through and beyond the
  first week of December, with the first widespread sub-zero
  morning of the season coming Thursday.

- There will be multiple chances for snow over the next week
  with passing clippers, but any snow amounts we see will be
  very light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

It`s much quieter than 24 hours ago, with the upper midwest under
the influence of a shortwave ridge embedded with the mean long wave
trough that extends from the Great Basin to the mid-Atlantic. For
tonight, the main uncertainty is cloud cover. Large portions of the
area will start the night with clear skies, but we`ll also have a
batch of persistent stratus from northwest WI back down to south
central MN. If a location can spend a good 6 hours under clear
skies, then they should be able to drop down below zero given the
light winds, but if clouds persist, then dropping below the teens
above zero will be difficult. Basically, it`s a big bust potential
on the lows tonight given the dependence on cloud cover.

For Monday, we`ll see the shortwave currently over the 4-corners
region head toward Missouri. Though most of the forcing will remain
south of us, a quick look at soundings show south central through
east central MN and western WI will have favorable moisture and
thermal profiles within the DGZ such that it should take very little
forcing to get some light snow going. We`ll have some weak low level
WAA on Monday and we`re seeing some models like the RAP and HRRR
having just enough forcing to kick out some very low QPF into
southeast MN and western WI. We switched from NBM over to ConShort
for PoPs on Monday, since the later had some pops in the 20s/30s in
southeastern portions of our CWA. Even if it does snow, over
achieving would be getting a half inch (0.5) of snow, so no
significant impacts are expected with this.

Southerly winds and "milder" temperatures will continue through
Tuesday out ahead of a strong cold front that will slam across our
area Tuesday night. We still anticipate light snow on the front.
However, this is a setup the NBM always struggles with. One or two
hundredths of QPF and a 2-4 hour window for snowfall. It did at
least broad brush some 20-40 PoPs, but we suspect PoPs will increase
for Tuesday night as we get closer and can start nailing down that 2-
4 hour wind for snow. Once again, over achieving for snow with this
front would be getting all of a half inch (0.5) of new snow. Behind
the front, we`ll have falling temperatures during the day on
Wednesday, with lows for Wednesday night/Thursday morning continuing
to trend colder. This looks like an ideal radiational cooling night
with a fresh snowpack. This mornings run of the NBM now has lows
double digits below zero Thursday morning for all but the core of
the Twin Cities metro in our coverage area. Record lows Thursday
morning are -12 (EAU), -15 (MSP), and -16 (STC), these are some of
the "warmest" record lows in the month of December. Although we`re
currently not forecasting any record lows, we will be getting
uncomfortably close.

For the rest of the forecast, it`s northwest flow, cold, and
clippers. Within the models, you can find clipper potential locally
Friday, Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday. In all cases, over achieving
would be 0.2" of liquid and 3 inches of snow with any single wave,
so in all cases, the snow would be cosmetic in nature. As for the
cold, Sunday looks to be the coldest day with another Canadian high
moving through that will be followed by another good chance at going
below zero for lows Sunday night/Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR stratus over eastern MN and WI will slowly continue east-
southeast, but not clear our WI terminals for the next few
hours. After that, VFR is expected for all terminals until early
Monday morning. Locations that are already clear (western and
central MN) should greatly cool overnight, with soundings
showing a good chance of mist/freezing fog through about
sunrise. Have included MVFR/IFR visibilities at AXN and STC.
Have leaned heavily into the RAP with cloud cover throughout
Monday as soundings show an at least MVFR stratus deck
developing early Monday. IFR to even LIFR is more likely across
western MN where it will be colder. Cigs will rise slightly in
the afternoon but should still remain largely MVFR. Also, added
PROB30s for MVFR visibilities and -SHSN at most terminals
Monday morning into the afternoon as the stratus deck will be
within the DGZ amid weak lift. Winds become light/variable
overnight before becoming south-southwesterly Monday morning and
increasing to 5-10 knots.

KMSP...Expecting the development of another MVFR stratus deck
near 1500 feet after 14Z Monday. Added PROB30 for the
possibility of -SHSN and visibilities down to 5sm late Monday
into the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR clouds with IFR/-SN possible late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR with -SN possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR and cold. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...CTG