838
FXUS63 KMPX 241746
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated sprinkles and breezy northwest winds this afternoon.

- Monday morning lows drop into the 40s for all locations.

- Below normal temperatures persist this week, with highs in the
  60s/70s and lows in the 40s/50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...The Upper Midwest remains under the
influence of a ~990s mb surface low located over James Bay early
this afternoon. Latest surface analysis reveals a tight pressure
gradient from the Great Lakes westward into Upper Midwest, which is
the driver behind another day of breezy northwest winds. Similar to
yesterday, we anticipate peak gusts to be around 30 mph. The
effects of ongoing cold air advection can be seen by an expansive
Cu field on the latest visible satellite imagery. RAP forecast
soundings capture the CAA by way of modestly steep low-level
lapse rates, which may support the development of a few very
isolated sprinkles over the coming hours (Best chances across
far eastern MN/western WI). Any showers should be brief, with
little if any measurable precipitation. Afternoon highs will top
out near late September/early October daily normals in the mid
to upper 60s. Cu field will dissipate as breezy winds diminish
this evening. Light winds, clear skies, and a cool Canadian
airmass over head (characterized by 850mb T`s between 2-4C) will
set the stage for a chilly Monday morning in the 40s...this
even includes the Twin Cities heat island! Outlying areas may
dip as low as the lower 40s tonight.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...Expansive dome of high pressure will
build in to open the work week. This will soften the pressure
gradient and yield much lighter winds. Afternoon highs may climb a
few more degrees, say into the upper 60s near 70 tomorrow afternoon.
With little modification in the airmass, would once again look for
lows to dip into the 40s across much of the area early Tuesday. The
core of the high is forecast to sag south into the eastern Plains
Tuesday, and then southeast over the Ohio Valley Wednesday into
Thursday. The gradual progression of the surface high to the
southeast will allow for return flow into the Upper Midwest. As
such, we`ll feel a gentle increase in temperatures through the end
of the week. Latest NBM features highs in the mid to upper 70s/lows
in the 50s Wednesday through Sunday. Not much to pass along with
regards to precipitation. It`s possible that low end PoPs may be
introduced with the passage of a cold front in the Thursday
timeframe, though it appears we would be looking at an isolated
shower or two at best. Otherwise, the next chance for any
precipitation would be tied to warm advection showers over the
central/northern Plains this upcoming weekend. Confidence is very
low in either of these regimes producing much in the way of
measurable precip. In other words, it will be a fairly comfortable
and dry end to August 2025...along with more great State Fair
weather!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Some isolated MVFR CIGS this morning, but overall as the day has
gone on these have lifted into low VFR. This is expected to
continue with low VFR CIGS through the evening before clearing
to SKC or FEW tonight. EAU and maybe RNH could see some isolated
sprinkles or showers this evening, little impacts to aviation
though with VFR expected to continue. Gusty northwest winds
will continue through the day before dropping overnight just
like yesterday. Tomorrow is not expected to be as windy, but
direction still from the NW.

KMSP...Gusty northwest winds continue through the day and
calm tonight. Not expected as much wind tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW bcmg W 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...NDC