354
FXUS63 KMPX 061111
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
611 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant today, then chances for storms late Monday
  and again late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Showers have finally just about dissipated and mid level clouds
are scattering. Drier air is working in. Dew points have fallen
into the 50s across parts of MN early this morning, while areas
south and east remain in the 60s to low 70s. The lower dew
points will filter into the entire region today and temperatures
will return to near normal levels, making for a pleasant day.

Eyes will be on a shortwave over Alberta today that will track
east eastward along the international border through Monday
night. Thunderstorms will develop across the Dakotas along a
front Monday, then reach western MN Monday evening. Mid level
lapse rates will be poor, but there will still be enough
instability and deep layer shear to sustain these into the early
evening hours. Instability will drop off through the evening
and with eastward extent, so weakening is expected to occur
Monday night. A few storms across western MN may contain large
hail and damaging winds.

By midweek, a strong ridge will anchor itself over the
southwestern U.S. with the northeast periphery of it extending
into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will bring a
modest warming trend. A stronger shortwave traversing east over
the northern and central Rockies will suppress the ridge and
bring more chances for showers and storms late week. Cooler air
returns next weekend in the wake of that system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Passing mid/high level clouds and light north winds through the
period.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc PM -TSRA. Wind SW 5 kts.
TUE...VFR, slight chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind WNW 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind light/variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff