491
FXUS63 KMPX 071143
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Diurnally-driven scattered showers are expected each
  afternoon through Monday.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms expected late
  tonight into early Sunday morning.

- Warmer and more active pattern arrives Wednesday. Potential
  for multiple rounds of strong storms and heavy rain through
  the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Clearing clouds and light winds have allowed for some patchy fog
development across western and south central Minnesota early this
morning. The fog isn`t expected to become widespread, but it is
worth noting that visibilities could fall below one mile at times
before mixing out. Clearer skies today will make for a slightly
warmer day than yesterday across the region, with highs in the
mid to upper 70s. Daytime heating and dew points approaching 60F
could lead to some isolated afternoon thunderstorms, primarily
across southern and eastern Minnesota. A better shot at more
widespread showers arrives late tonight as a cold front tracks
from the Dakotas into western Minnesota. The trend over the past
two days has been to keep any stronger thunderstorm activity
over the Dakotas and far northwestern Minnesota during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Once instability decreases after
sunset, the threat for thunderstorms drops off considerably
while the front continues east into the MPX CWA. Rain will
arrive in eastern Minnesota after midnight and continue through
western Wisconsin with QPF amounts up to 0.25" (maybe a bit more
in western Wisconsin). The majority of the day should be dry for
most, but there is still a chance for those isolated diurnal
showers to pop once again.

Behind the front Sunday, we`re back in northwest flow and may end up
with some elevated wildfire smoke once again. Temperatures will also
be a bit cooler than today with central Minnesota topping out in the
mid 60s and low 70s elsewhere. Winds will be on the breezy side with
gusts around 30 MPH expected across western Minnesota. Clouds will
gradually increase through the day ahead of an upper low dropping
down out of Canada, leading to our next shot of precip. These
showers are expected to amount to very little with only a few
hundredths of QPF through Monday afternoon with highs
struggling to reach the mid 60s.

The middle of the week is when things start to look more
interesting. Ridging builds across the Central US, allowing Gulf
moisture to make its way northward. Temperatures climb back into the
80s with multiple chances for showers and storms. As mentioned in
previous discussions, model guidance and ML probabilities continue
to highlight increased chances for heavy rain and some strong
thunderstorms to end the week, but it`s too early to pinpoint any
finer details.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Few changes were needed from the going TAFs. There is some
shallow fog across MN this morning, but with the sun already up,
that will all burn off by 13z. Still expecting isolated
shra/tsra today, but coverage looks sparse enough to keep their
mention out of the TAFs right now. Cold front still do in
overnight with a broken band of shra/tsra expected with it.
Winds will be southerly today, but will quickly switch over to
the WNW with the FROPA tonight.

KMSP...Still can`t rule out some spotty shra/tsra activity this
afternoon, but with a lack of a forcing mechanism to latch on
to, kept MSP TAF dry. Forcing does arrive with the cold front
tonight and nothing has changed in the timing of it overnight,
with that 7z to 9z window having the greatest shra/tsra pattern.
By the end of this period (late Sunday morning) we will likely
start seeing westerly wind gusts pushing 25 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR overnight. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.
MON...VFR. Aftn -SHRA/MVFR likely. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...MPG