454
FXUS63 KMPX 101126
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
526 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chance for flurries or light snow showers today.

- A clipper system will bring the return of light snow to the
  region late Saturday into Sunday. A few inches of
  accumulation are likely in spots.

- Much colder early next week, with sub-zero lows expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Extensive cloud cover continues to shroud the Upper Midwest this
morning. A warm sector of sorts has pushed into Minnesota with
temperatures rising into the upper 20s west of I-35. A cold
front across northern MN will slide south this morning which
will bring steady or slowly falling temperatures this afternoon.
Observations to the north indicate some flurries are falling.
Forecast soundings farther south become better saturated as the
front approaches with occasional flurries becoming likely within
the next few hours. Moisture deepens enough across southern MN
for a time later this morning to support a chance of steadier
snow and minor accumulation (a tenth or two) possible. The cold
front will settle south across IA and northern IL tonight.

Eyes then turn to the clipper we`ve been watching for the last
several days for late Saturday into early Sunday. Not much
change with this feature. The low will track from central ND to
southern MN by late Saturday evening. Occasional light snow will
accompany this feature, with pockets of steadier snow possible
north of the low track. As the low pulls away Sunday, stratus
and saturation remaining in the DGZ may continue the occasional
light snow or flurries through at least the morning, before
colder and drier air arrives Sunday afternoon/evening. Total QPF
of one to two tenths is a very good bet per almost universal
ensemble support, with the heaviest amounts likely along and
north of I-94. Light winds and a deep DGZ would support better
than average snow ratios, although forcing for ascent isn`t
particularly noteworthy. We should see 1 to 3 inches area wide.

A blast of colder air will follow early next week, and this one
could be colder than the last due to some snow finally on the
ground. Highs in the single digits above zero and lows in the
single digits and teens below zero are anticipated through
Tuesday night. Relatively light winds could mean some of the
typically colder locations may drop even lower, but the light
wind will also hinder dangerous wind chills from developing.

By midweek, the trough will exit and a mild Pacific airmass will
quickly move in. Highs by Thursday should reach the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

MVFR to IFR cigs across portions of western MN will continue to
spread south and east the first few hours of this morning. IFR
is most likely at AXN, STC, and EAU to start but cigs should
improve to MVFR area-wide by late morning. MVFR cigs should hold
through most of the afternoon before broken to overcast skies
break apart and cigs lift this evening. Some flurries are
possible area-wide today but impacts should be minimal. VFR
expected this evening onward with an overcast deck of clouds
near 7000 feet arriving from the west early Saturday morning.
Northwesterly winds will reach to near 10 knots this morning
into this afternoon before slowing and becoming calm/variable
tonight. Winds become south-southeasterly near 5 knots across MN
early Saturday morning.

KMSP...IFR conditions return by 13Z, and should last through
most of this afternoon. Light snow is also expected for most of
today but impacts should be minimal. VFR is expected by this
evening as clouds break apart and lift.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. IFR/SN overnight. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SUN...MVFR/IFR/SN early. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...CTG