149
FXUS63 KMPX 280549
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening
  mainly across southern and southwestern MN, and western WI
  this evening. A storm or two could become severe with
  primarily a large hail threat.

- Mainly dry conditions will follow for tonight through Labor
  Day, with chances for precipitation mostly across western MN.

- Mild but still below-normal temperatures will persist through
  early September. Broad area of high pressure continues to
  dominate for the next few days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Satellite imagery and surface obs indicate dense fog is
beginning to develop across portions of southern Minnesota.
Redwood Falls recently reported a visibility of 3/4SM and an
mPING report around Mankato reported dense fog. Guidance seem
to have a good handle on initial development occurring already,
with it becoming more widespread and dense overnight. Confidence
is such that a Dense Fog Advisory is justified in areas fog is
already forming, but it could be expanded a bit overnight
depending on how the situation evolves.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

We are currently positioned between two waves this afternoon.
The  first wave is still to our north along the Canadian
border, while the other is a weak wave that stems from a parent
troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS. Across central MN and
western WI, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are prevalent.
The same cannot be said about southwestern and southern MN
though where convection has already began to initiate. The
aforementioned weak wave positioned across eastern SD and
western MN currently falls in line with peak heating and some
MLCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg. Therefore chances for showers and
thunderstorms this will continue this afternoon into the
evening for that region. Given the current environment, the
storm prediction center has placed southwestern and southern MN
under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the potential of severe
storms for the rest of today. Coverage for precipitation is
expected to remain scattered at best but with enough effective
shear nearing 30kts, a storm or two could become better
organized and produce large hail. As we enter the overnight
hours, the Canadian Border wave will reach eastern MN and
western WI. Severe weather is not expected in this region
however a few showers and storms will be possible tonight.

As we look ahead into the rest of this week into the weekend for
most areas, the overall pattern looks to be relatively quiet
with temperatures continuing to slowly warm back up to slightly
below normal values. Our next chance of showers/storms looks to
remain mostly over western MN starting Friday night into Sunday
as Canadian high pressure generates a nearly stationary wake low
over the Dakotas. As of now the weekend does not look like a
wash out but continue to monitor the forecast as placement of
this feature can greatly increase or decrease rainfall amounts.

After the Labor Day holiday into next week, temperatures will
continue to run in the 70s with only slight summertime precip
chances for precip each day until Wednesday and Thursday. A cold
front is forecasted to move through at that time through the
Upper Great Lakes region which will return temps back down in
the the upper 60s to low 70s for highs and upper 40s to low 50s
for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Low stratus and fog will likely be the rule during the overnight
hours through daybreak per satellite imagery and HRRR guidance.
Have maintained the IFR-or-worse conditions at most sites
overnight. KMPX radar does show some showers over northeastern
MN drifting SSE, and there is a possibility some of them may
reach MSP and points east. Have kept the TAFs dry at this point,
expecting the scattered showers to diminish as the atmosphere
becomes more stable overnight. However, will monitor and amend
the TAFs as needed.

KMSP...A few showers well north of MSP at initialization may try
to make a run for the MSP terminal around 07z-08z but the
expectation is that they will diminish before reaching the
terminal. There is more confidence on low stratus/fog developing
overnight through the morning push, so have kept that mention
going in the 28/06z TAF. IFR looks likely with LIFR possible.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON-TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Goodhue-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui
     Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-
     Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Borghoff
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC