241
FXUS63 KMPX 150756
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
256 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain possible across southern MN today as we will be
  cool and cloudy. Additional showers likely tonight into
  Thursday.

- Well above normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday.

- A cooler, drier air mass settles in for the weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Our atmosphere is very moist tonight, considering it`s mid-October,
as the MPX 00Z ROAB observed a PWAT of 1.33". This is a daily
maximum for October 15th, and the moisture is evident in surface
obs, satellite, and radar. Thick, low-level clouds cover the entire
region while a band of rain showers continues to persist over
southeastern MN. In western MN, mist is creating some reductions in
visibility. The visibility will improve shortly after we get past
sunrise, but it seems possible that light showers will persist
across southern MN through this morning. Forecast profiles in this
region are saturated throughout the low-levels and ongoing WAA
should provide lift to create additional showers. Have added slight
chance PoPs for southern MN through this afternoon. Temperatures
won`t warm much due to the overcast skies, so highs in the mid 50s
to lower 60s are expected. During tonight, the thermal ridge that is
over the Central Plains will begin to advect north ahead of an
incoming upper-level trough. Numerous CAMs depict a band of
scattered showers (and even a few thunderstorms) developing along
the nose of this thermal ridge from western to south-central MN
early Thursday morning. This activity will move northeast and should
gradually spread and intensify as synoptic lift from the trough
increases. Thus, early into mid-Thursday morning looks rather wet
for most of the CWA, except potentially the counties in southwest
MN. The precip is progged to exit northeast of our CWA by Thursday
afternoon. Though, the HRRR and WRF-ARW are suggesting some
additional redevelopment in its wake, which isn`t too surprising
given how much moisture we will have. QPF amounts from through this
time should only be on the order of 0.1-0.25". If rain can end by
Thursday afternoon, it could actually be decent day as highs will
reach the mid 60s to mid 70s being within the thermal ridge. Some
peaks of sun are also expected but southerly winds will be breezy
with gusts of 20-30 MPH.

The warmth will persist into Friday as highs are forecast to be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. However, a cold front will eventually
sweep through late Friday afternoon or evening as the aforementioned
trough and surface low pass to our north. Guidance develops showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front, especially
across WI Friday night. This activity should exit to our east by
Saturday morning. Drier, post-frontal air arrives this weekend
limiting rain chances while cooling us towards normal. Highs this
weekend are forecast in the mid 50s to lower 60s while upper 30s to
lower 40s lows are possible each night. A brief warm up is possible
early next week, but already by Monday we begin to see spread grow
between the deterministic forecast models. The upper-level pattern
becomes wavy but more progressive as the blocking features over the
western Atlantic and eastern Canada breakdown. Models suggest that a
couple of shortwaves will pass through the Upper Midwest during the
first half of next week. The first chance for rain looks to be the
Monday afternoon into Monday night timeframe followed by another
chance mid-week. Neither system looks to be significant but is
something to watch if you have any outdoor activities planned or are
wondering to bring an umbrella for the day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

While light rain should end at most of our terminals within the
next couple of hours, a band of rain will likely continue over
southern MN until near sunrise. MVFR visibilities are possible
with the rain and any lingering mist into Wednesday morning. IFR
cigs will continue to spread east over the next few hours, such
that all terminals will be at least IFR through Wednesday
morning. AXN is the most likely to drop to LIFR as cigs bottom
out near 400 feet. Cigs should slightly lift after Wednesday
morning but should largely stay IFR/MVFR. Only EAU looks to
reach VFR by the end of the TAF period. There is also a chance
of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for western MN Wednesday
evening along a nose of WAA. Have added PROB30s at AXN and RWF.
East-southeasterly winds will increase to 6-11 knots during
Wednesday.

KMSP...Light rain/mist will continue for the next hour or so
with visibilities dropping to 5sm. Expect IFR cigs to arrive
near 08Z but an improvement to MVFR is expected after 18Z. Added
a PROB30 from 06-12Z Thursday for a chance of -TSRA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Chc-RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind W 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG