558
FXUS63 KMPX 181119
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
619 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional showers and storms will lead to a chance for
  additional flooding and flash flooding through this morning.
  The Twin Cities metro could be impact during the morning
  commute.

- Behind the cold front moving through today, conditions look to
  dry out and cool down this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Radar is quite active this morning with clusters of storms present
across much of the area, although a lack of severe storms is
expected to remain the trend. Heavy rain and lightning will remain
the primary risks with additional storms through the rest of this
morning in addition to an isolated wind gust or two, with the best
potential for gusts generally in southwestern Minnesota. The Flood
Watch remains over the entire area as there is still a significant
amount of moisture within the atmosphere and a combination of the
forcing from the incoming cold front alongside instability for
storms will keep the area active through at least midday today. The
hardest hit areas over the last 12 to 24 hours will be very
susceptible to further rainfall such that flooding and flash
flooding could occur with as little as 1 to 2 inches of rain over 3-
6 hours and will be something we have to monitor closely over the
coming hours. PWATs continue to exceed 1.8-2 inches as efficient
850mb moisture transport is evident per SPC mesoanalysis due to the
low level jet present within the warm sector ahead of the cold front
and south of the warm front. The surface low is still expected to
migrate northwards which places most of the MPX CWA within the low
level jet`s influence, which will allow for efficient rainfall
production and heavy rainfall with additional storms. We likely will
have to issue additional Flash Flood Warnings should we see storms
moving into areas already hit due to how saturated the ground
already is, favoring areas of southern MN to western WI. Thankfully
we have had just enough of a lull from roughly 11pm to 3am to
recover enough such that water has receded from most of the
afternoon/evening areas with the main exception being Waseca County
which saw significant rains already yesterday morning in addition to
the afternoon. Short range guidance continues to show a line of
showers and storms along the cold front progressing across the
region this morning, arriving in western MN shortly after this
discussion goes out and reaching the Twin Cities metro by the latter
half of the morning commute hours and western WI by the late morning.

Activity will continue along the cold front as it pushes through
this morning, with a significant pattern shift behind the front
through the rest of this week and into the weekend with temperatures
dropping back to upper 70s to low 80s close to normal for late
August as well as dry conditions. Surface high pressure will build
beneath an incoming ridge behind the departing cold front through at
least Friday at which point a Hudson Bay low being picked up within
most of the global guidance will drag a weak cold front across the
region which would give minor chances for rain, with surface high
pressure and subsidence returning afterwards. After the active last
few weeks as far as showers and storms go, it will be nice to have a
break as we begin to deal with swollen rivers and river flooding due
to the rainfall over the last few days. The longer range GEFS/EPS
both show relatively dry weather continuing until later next week,
with sporadic precipitation beyond the 28th or 29th with a lack of a
dominant weather pattern in the longer time ranges leading to
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

The first 3 to 4 hours of the TAF period will generally see
-SHRA with embedded -TSRA along a cold front, with most sites
 seeing MVFR or even IFR visibility as it passes. Improvement to
 VFR is likely after 18z with most locations drying out, with a
 drop back to MVFR or IFR due to fog possible later in the
 period. Winds shift from 150-180 ahead of the cold front early
 to 270-330 behind the front before weakening below 5kts.

KMSP...The overall precipitation intensity has diminished over
the last few hours, and thus our visibility reduction due to
-SHRA/-TSRA should be a bit better than previously forecast. We
 improve to VFR behind the cold front, with a chance at MVFR
 again later in the period as fog returns with weak winds
 overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind N 5kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Blue Earth-Brown-
     Chippewa-Douglas-Faribault-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-
     Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
     Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Benton-
     Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Le Sueur-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-
     Sherburne-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Wright.
WI...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH