278
FXUS63 KMPX 181952
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild Saturday into Sunday afternoon.

- Additional rain chances later Sunday into early Monday,
  Monday night into Tuesday evening, and Thursday into Friday.
  However, no significant weather impacts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Gusty northwest winds are in place and drier air is advecting in
this afternoon which has allowed clouds to clear out across much
of Minnesota. Extensive stratus and areas of drizzle continue
across Wisconsin, although visibilities have improved in the
last hour which implies the drizzle is ending. Scattered altocu
across western MN are producing some echos on radar, but so far
there hasn`t been rain reported at any of the METARs, so suspect
the dry air is winning.

High pressure will build southeast through Saturday while an
active front remains stationary across the Ohio and mid
Mississippi Valley. Light winds, clear skies, mild temperatures
and low humidity should make for a nice start to the weekend.
However, the trough over the southwestern U.S. will reload late
Saturday and a new low pressure system will eject northeast
late Saturday night and Sunday. This will push the stationary
front and a large pool of moisture back north toward the Upper
Midwest Sunday night. Widespread rain will engulf southern/eastern
MN and WI before moving out early Monday. There remains some
modest variability with the track, but it`s appearing likely
western MN should largely be missed with the shield of rain.

A secondary trough over the northern Rockies will advance east
quickly. By Monday night, the next chance for showers will
arrive. This system won`t be as well organized and much of the
stronger forcing will bypass us to the north. Medium PoPs
continue into Tuesday evening. Precipitation totals will remain
light - less than a tenth of an inch.

The rest of the period will be characterized by a shallow
trough over the West Coast, southwest flow over the Rockies, and
zonal flow across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Another
disturbance over the Plains may bring the 3rd chance for
showers, possibly accompanied by some storms, by late week.
There remains a lot of inconsistency with the handling of this
feature, and that could continue for another few days with
little steering in the synoptic flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

MVFR/IFR conditions across WI will continue for much of the day,
then improvement expected this evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions through the period with gusty northwest winds easing
this evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR early. MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
MON...Chance MVFR/-SHRA early. VFR late. Wind N 10-15 kts.
TUE...Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff