078
FXUS63 KMPX 111712
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke with diminished air quality expected today, but
  overall a quiet start to the week.

- The second half of the week continues to look warmer and more
  active with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
  through the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Surface obs from across the Upper Midwest early this morning show
visibilities have fallen into the 3-5 mile range for a large portion
of the eastern Dakotas and western/central Minnesota. This is due to
a mix of fog and the return of near surface wildfire smoke. Air
quality readings suggest that the vis reductions across North Dakota
are primarily smoke related, with areas further east more in the fog
camp. Smoke will be transported eastward through the day with
northern and central Minnesota seeing the greatest impacts per the
MPCA forecast. Other than those concerns, today will be quiet with
temperatures in the low 80s. Overnight, an approaching cold front
will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms into early Tuesday.
Have increased PoPs, particularly for central Minnesota, but QPF
amounts are on the order of 0.25" or less. Once this clears out by
late morning, we`ll be dry and mostly sunny through Wednesday.

The second half of the forecast period will feature the return of
warmer temps and multiple chances for showers and storms, some of
which could be heavy. This first chance arrives Wednesday night with
an increasing LLJ across the Dakotas and western Minnesota as a warm
front makes its way northward. Pwats begin to ramp up with values
around 1.5" Thursday. By early Friday, guidance suggests they could
top 1.75" into Saturday as a front stalls out somewhere near
southern Minnesota. A couple of shortwaves will move through the
region, but the timing is still somewhat uncertain. In any case, the
threat for locally heavy rain exists Friday and Saturday. WPC has
highlighted the majority of Minnesota and western Wisconsin in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for these two days. Severe
weather wise, depending on the timing of the forcing, we could see
some thunder but it`s too early to hone in on specific details. ML
guidance does highlight the MPX CWA with some severe probs, so will
need to monitor this threat over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas of smoke will continue to move into MN from the Dakotas
this afternoon. A band of SCT fair weather Cu around 3 to 4 kft
has developed & but cigs should remain VFR.  MVFR vsbys are
possible with the smoke today, especially across central MN. A
weak cold front will move through tonight, effectively pushing
the smoke out of the MPX CWA, and bring a chance for showers
overnight. Latest hires guidance struggles to bring the showers
beyond STC so I`ve opted to keep RWF/MKT/MSP dry. There could be
some redevelopment Tuesday morning across W WI so opted for
PROB30 for now.

KMSP...Smoke will arrive early this afternoon and may bring vis
down to 5 or 6SM. We opted to remove the PROB30 for -SHRA given
a drier/less confident signal in guidance.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts bcmg S.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BPH