054
FXUS63 KMPX 222040
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
240 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold again tonight and tomorrow, followed by a return to normal
temperatures through the weekend and into next week.

- Chances for flurries or light snow showers will be sporadic
  based on low level cloud cover, with no significant snow
  producing systems through the rest of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a widespread blanket of cloud
cover ahead of an incoming cold front with a few flurries or light
snow showers being squeezed out of the stratus. This will continue
through cold fropa this evening at which point we will begin
clearing out and temperatures will begin rapidly falling back into
the single digits below zero, with wind chills in the teens below
zero once again. Unlike our last stretch of cold weather, this will
only last through Thursday before we warm back up into the 20s and
even low 30s through the weekend and into next week.

Our weather pattern will remain fairly stagnant through the 7 day
forecast period with a lack of major weather systems as the Rex
Blocking pattern over the western US continues to keep the any more
powerful synoptic scale systems at bay. Flow aloft will remain zonal
to northwesterly with the northern stream jet which is typically in
Canada located over the central plains to lower Great Lake states
beginning Friday and lasting through the period. What this means is
a mix of cloud cover based on the weak forcing from synoptic scale
shortwaves and jet activity, with southerly surface winds keeping
temperatures from dropping as another arctic high does not appear
within most of the guidance. The best chances for flakes other than
this afternoon will arrive via a weak frontal passage on Friday
afternoon/evening, however accumulations will once again be light
with no access to moisture due to the position of the jet. The Rex
Block shows signs of breaking down finally towards the middle of
next week, which would allow us to shakeup the airmass as we head
into February and hopefully bring about a few more chances for
precipitation. We have been saying for a while now that this winter
shows more signs of being back-loaded for snowfall, so while we are
still at around a 16 inch snow deficit within the area around the
Twin Cities, we`ve been at this point before and ended up with above
average snowfall for the winter plenty of times. Those who wish to
see a more traditional winter need to remember that although
technically Spring in the meteorological calendar, March tends to be
more of a winter month than anything else around here, and April
snow systems happen often enough to keep us on our toes until we get
to May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Low end VFR/high MVFR conditions will persist through the
majority of the period with occasional flurries. A weak front is
making its way southward across central Minnesota early this
afternoon and will work to shift winds back to the northwest by
this evening. Gusts of around 20kts will be common through the
evening before coming down by early tomorrow morning. VFR cigs
are expected to return between 10-14z.

KMSP...A few flurries are possible through the afternoon, but
impacts are expected to be minimal. MVFR cigs will work in as
the front approaches and continue through much of the overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...MVFR cigs likely. Wind W 15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind WSW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Dye