508
FXUS63 KMPX 121053
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
553 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy Sunday with scattered rain showers. However,
  widespread, soaking rain is not expected.

- Cooler temperatures to start the new week.

- A semi-active, warmer pattern sets up with additional rain
  chances mid and late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A few rain showers are present over central MN early this morning
but the bulk of the precipitation remains over the eastern Dakotas
into northwest MN. This is where the strongest warm air and moisture
advection are occurring within a 50-60 knot southerly LLJ. However,
the axis of the LLJ is slowly translating east and will focus over
MN by late this morning. Scattered showers (possibly multiple
rounds) should develop over southwest MN this morning and travel
northeast into central and eastern MN into this afternoon. One
caveat is that there is still a good amount of low-level dry air in
place, such that rain could have a hard time making it to the
ground, particularly over southern MN. Additionally, the LLJ will
strengthen south-southeasterly surface winds with gusts reaching 25-
35 MPH for most of MN into this afternoon. WI will also see breezier
winds but of less magnitude. The WAA will allow temperatures to warm
into the upper 60s to mid 70s this afternoon. The winds keep up
until a strong cold front arrives from the west, which will
coincidentally also bring our best chance for widespread showers.
Showers are forecast to develop over MN this afternoon and move east
into WI tonight. As mentioned previously, a widespread soaking rain
isn`t expected but 0.1-0.25" is a good bet for places that can
receive multiple showers. A thunderstorm or two is possible over
south-central MN, which could produce rainfall amounts exceeding
0.5".

Once the cold front passes, rain should end rather abruptly while
winds switch to northwesterly and slow. CAA following the front will
make for a cooler start to the work week. Mid 50s to mid 60s highs
are forecast Monday (coolest in western MN) while lows Monday night
drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. By Tuesday, the entire CWA will
only warm into the 50s for highs. Surface high pressure is forecast
to settle over the Canadian Prairies for the first half of the work
week; close enough that we should stay mostly dry. But, a positively-
tilted upper-level trough over the west coast will promote
downstream southwesterly flow over the Intermountain Rockies and
into the High Plains. Southerly low-level flow will develop over the
Central Plains in response and advect a thermal ridge north,
eventually into the Northern Plains by the second half of the week.
Moisture will also be pulled from the south such that GFS forecast
PWATs are progged to be 1 to even 3 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year. The increased moisture will allow for
multiple chances of rain Tuesday into next weekend. For
Tuesday/Tuesday night, precipitation should remain focused more to
the south as the nearby aforementioned surface high and dry air
keeps the precipitation at bay. But, as we go through the week,
guidance shows the thermal ridge moving over the Upper Midwest,
giving better area-wide chances for rain. Our temperatures will also
warm to well above normal the second half of the week with highs
potentially 10 degrees over climatology. Forecast models eventually
eject the aforementioned west coast trough east of the Rockies and
through the Northern Plains. A cold front would accompany this
feature and sweep through our region sometime late week. This would
likely be our best chance of rain before the warm, moist air is
swept out. But, considerable model differences still remain such
that exact timing and placement of the synoptic features still need
to time to be resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A couple of minor changes have been made to the TAFs for this
forecast cycle. Added a TEMPO at AXN late this morning for cigs
temporarily dropping to MVFR. Also delayed the arrival of the
cold front this afternoon/evening by 1-2 hours. Aside from AXN,
VFR is expected the entire period with cigs dropping to
3500-5000 feet as the front passes through. Scattered rain
showers still look likely along and ahead of the front but
impacts aren`t expected to be significant. Rain ends and skies
should clear quickly following the cold front. Southeasterly
winds are strengthening and sustained values should reach 15-25
knots with gusts reaching 25-35 knots (strongest in western MN).
Winds flip to west-northwesterly and slow after the frontal
passage. South-southeasterly LLWS of 50 knots will still persist
this morning at AXN and MKT.

KMSP...Kept PROB30 for -SHRA early this afternoon but best
chance for rain will be with the cold front from 02-05Z this
evening. Southeasterly winds will gust to 30-35 knots this
afternoon. The cold front will pass thru near 02-04Z flipping
winds to northwesterly while gradually slowing to under 10
knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG