729
FXUS63 KMPX 191121
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
621 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild Saturday into Sunday afternoon.

- Additional rain chances later Sunday into early Monday,
  Monday night into Tuesday evening, and Thursday into Friday.
  However, no significant weather impacts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The remaining lingering showers have finally pushed off to our
northeast while skies have already cleared in western MN. These
clear skies have helped overnight lows drop into the upper 20s
across our west while more cloud cover has relegated our east to the
mid to upper 30s. High pressure slides east into the Upper Midwest
today through the early part of Sunday, allowing for mostly sunny
skies and mild weather. Highs today will be in the 50s while
Sunday`s will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Overcast skies will
build in from the south during Sunday as our next storm system
approaches. The track of the surface low is pretty consistent within
the guidance, traveling from Wichita to Kansas City to northeast IA
and then Green Bay Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. The
precipitation shield north of the warm front is forecast to arrive
in southern MN Sunday afternoon and will continue to spread north-
northeast into the eastern half of MN and all of WI into Sunday
night. The deformation band on the northwest side of the surface low
will follow, causing precipitation to last into Monday afternoon
before the system exits northeast into Ontario. Most of the affected
region will see rain for the entire event. However, forecast
soundings do show the potential for some snow to mix in over our WI
counties Monday morning as colder air from the north wraps into the
surface low. Guidance favors cosmetic snowflakes to perhaps a
dusting over our WI counties, with the higher amounts looking more
probable farther north near the Michigan UP. As for rainfall
amounts, at least 0.5" looks likely from southeastern MN into WI.
Highest amounts are most probable where the deformation band passes
through with rainfall amounts potentially reaching 1.5" to nearly
2". Meanwhile in western MN, Monday could be actually quite nice
with highs in the low to mid 60s and some sun.

A brief break in rain chances occurs Monday night before another
trough arrives from the west. This system will have a lot less
moisture. Thus, while rainfall chances are again widespread Monday
night through Tuesday (30-45% PoPs, currently), rain should be
scattered and light as it moves from west to east. Tuesday`s highs
could actually recover nicely over western to southern MN, where mid
to upper 60s may occur (if clouds can clear quickly enough in the
afternoon). Farther east, highs in the mid to upper 50s look more
likely as precip and cloud cover hold on longer into the day. For
the remainder of next week, highs will generally hang near the 60s
while lows will be in the low to mid 40s. Regarding rainfall
chances, Wednesday looks to be mostly dry but at least 20% PoPs
return Wednesday night through Friday as a zonal frontal boundary
settles somewhere over the Northern Plains. Currently, PoPs are
greatest over southern MN at 30-50%. But, this could change as the
weaker upper-level split flow that is forecast to develop over the
northern CONUS will influence where that frontal boundary eventually
settles. Overall, the weather looks to stay relatively active as we
head towards next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR with clear skies across much of the region. An area of high
VFR clouds remains early this morning over parts of eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. This will clear out for a
mainly SKC period. Clouds will begin to return on Sunday with
the next chance of rain, mainly after this TAF period. Winds
will continue from the northwest this morning before shifting to
the southeast this evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN PM...MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
MON...Chance MVFR/-SHRA early. VFR late. Wind N 10-15 kts.
TUE...Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...NDC