687
FXUS63 KMPX 120810
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning across most of the coverage area due to the
  forecast of critical fire weather conditions this afternoon &
  evening.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over western Minnesota
  possible Tuesday.

- Clear and warm through Wednesday, then rain chances and much
  cooler conditions return for the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Surface analysis early this morning depicts a wavy stationary
front set north of the international border with a multitude of
low pressure centers over the northwestern corner of the CONUS
along with a deep low pressure center over the lower Mississippi
River Valley. Aloft, the pattern remains of solid southwestern
flow over the central CONUS with the deep lows over the
southeastern CONUS and PacNW.

Today will result in a lather-rinse-repeat pattern from
yesterday, and which will also continue Tuesday and Wednesday,
albeit with a gradual compressing of the pronounced warm and
dry flow aloft as the southeast CONUS low drifts northeast into
the Ohio Valley and expands while the PacNW low opens to a
positively-tilted trough which shifts across the Rockies. Thus,
while the strong southwest flow aloft remains and the front
keeps to the north, our Upper Midwest weather will continue as
warm, dry and breezy, again capable of producing a high fire
danger across the region. Red Flag Warnings will remain in place
for nearly the entirety of the WFO MPX coverage area for today
with highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s, RHs between 15-25% and
sustained winds 15-25mph. A few counties in our western
Wisconsin portion will have winds fall just short, but the main
wildfire hazards will be similar due to dry fuels.

Little change is expected for temperatures and winds for
Tuesday-Wednesday as the same pattern remains. However,
additional moisture advection will allow for higher minimum RH
values, particularly over eastern MN into western WI which will
only drop to the 30-40% on Tuesday and then 35-45% on Wednesday
(and potentially not even drop below 25% anywhere on Wednesday).
Thus, after today, the potential for fire weather headlines
diminishes but conditions will be monitored for Special Weather
Statements if critical fire weather thresholds are not met for
Red Flag Warnings.

Come Wednesday night, one of the aforementioned low pressure
centers from the PacNW conglomeration becomes picked up by the
digging western CONUS trough, helping develop it into a well-
organized low over WY. This low drops to ~990mb over the Dakotas
Thursday morning, spreading showers/thunderstorms across the
Upper Midwest Thursday through Friday as PWATs increase to
1.00-1.50", likely giving our area widespread relief from the
persistent dry heat. Any severe weather potential would be
limited to far SE MN and SW WI (likely outside our CWA), with
the much better chances remaining over southern WI, eastern IA
and northern IL. This precipitation event looks to be reinforced
by a one- two punch of cold fronts pushing through the region,
with the second bringing strong cold air advection to the region
for the end of the week. High temperatures Friday- Sunday will
only run from the upper 50s to mid 60s(!) while low temperatures
plunge all the way to the mid 30s to mid 40s(!!).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the 06z TAF
period. Main aviation concern over the next ~6 hours is the
LLWS present at AXN/STC, along with a marginal LLWS scenario at
RWF. Wind shear relaxes by 12z. Southerly winds increase at all
sites through mid-morning, with gusts between 20-25 knots. Winds
then diminish Monday evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10G20kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10G20kts.
THU...MVFR/RA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SE to SW
10-15G20-25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-
     Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
     Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-
     Yellow Medicine.
WI...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     Barron-Dunn-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...Strus