860
FXUS63 KMPX 070910
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning with visibilities reduced to
  a quarter mile or less.

- Dry weather continues through the end of the week.

- Rain chances return this weekend and the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Satellite this morning showing two bands of low-level stratus across
MN/WI which is bisected with a clear slot stretching from Duluth, MN
southwest past Sioux Falls, SD. Within this clear area, temps
have been able to cool enough to generate some radiational fog.
Light ESE winds 3-4kts has began to advect the fog slowly east.
A dense fog advisory is in effect currently for portions of
central MN where visibilities become less than one quarter of a
mile. A challenge with this fog has been determining the
duration and eastern extent before dissipation. Meanwhile aloft,
flow has become zonal which will negate any episodes of weather
through Saturday morning. Temperatures between now and then are
forecasted reach the upper 40s with a few wind gusts between
20-25 mph this afternoon and then warm into the mid 50s on
Friday with mostly clear skies.

This weekend continues to feature a cutoff low that has developed
near the four corners region of the U.S. While downstream over the
lower Mississippi River Valley, a deepening ridge will reach the
southern Great Lakes Saturday morning. Steering flow will help guide
the cutoff low over southeastern MN Saturday into Sunday. PWAT
values will increase to 0.70" (~90th percentile) which is
indicative of sufficient moisture support. However, given the
lack of dyanmics of this event, rainfall is expected to be
intermittent and accumulate up to only a half inch or less for
most areas. Temperatures over the weekend are expected to range
in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For early next week, dry weather continues with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 50s by Tuesday. Come midweek, our next system
is progged to move over the northern plains. A troughing pattern is
expected to dig over the eastern Missouri Valley by Wednesday.
Without diving into specifics just yet dont want for QPF
specifics but this system could help bring some beneficial
rainfall to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Low stratus will persist across the area throughout the night
tonight and potentially through late Thursday morning. The
visibility issues that plagued most TAFs last night are not
expected tonight as winds will not go calm and near-surface
moisture will not be quite as much, as in there will be a bit
higher dewpoint depressions, leading to much lower chances for
ground fog. That said, it will be more patchy tonight across the
area so have included conditions down to LIFR and VLIFR for
sites most likely to see fog. Ceilings will rise to VFR levels
by midday Thursday with the trend being decreased sky coverage
through Thursday afternoon- evening. Winds will generally run
light/variable overnight, then picking up from the west by
midday tomorrow 10-15kts with gusts to around 20kts.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings are likely to return this evening,
remaining in place through the overnight hours. Ceilings are
expected to rise to VFR levels near sunrise, then continue
rising and also dissipating as the day progresses. SW to W winds
will develop after daybreak tomorrow with speeds approaching
10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA likely overnight. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA likely early. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for Benton-
     Carver-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker-Morrison-Renville-
     Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Todd-Wright.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC