884
FXUS63 KMPX 092030
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
330 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record heat Monday, with anomalies ~30 degrees above normal.
  Elevated fire weather conditions with dry air and gusty winds.

- Dry conditions expected through midweek with highs in the 60s
  and 70s by late week.

- A powerful storm system will impact the region Friday and
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Temperatures are on the climb again with only thin, cirrus
clouds to filter the sun. The extent of the snow footprint on
satellite continues to shrink this afternoon, with only the
areas who received 7"+ still holding onto 1-3". If our first
post-7pm sunset is not enough to knock out the remaining
snowpack this evening, overnight lows generally above freezing
should be enough to be the final nail in the coffin. And
whatever is left by tomorrow morning will receive a metaphorical
flamethrower.

Another round of record highs looks increasingly certain
tomorrow. Latest 925 hPa temperatures are forecast to peak
+15C to +17C across Minnesota. RAP and HRRR soundings suggest we
should be able to mix up to that level, if not even slightly
higher, yielding highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Not only
would this result in anomalies of 25F to 30F above normal, but
it would also be almost 5F above the daily records (see climate
section). Also of note, there is a concern for elevated fire
weather conditions due to the increased mixing (stronger winds
and lower dewpoints). Favorably, these two components should be
largely offset with the strong CAA winds arriving late afternoon
through early tomorrow morning. This will allow temperatures to
decrease enough to drive RH values well above critical
threshold. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of
west-central MN tomorrow afternoon, when the increasing wind
overlaps the low RH values. An SPS for elevated fire weather
conditions also extends into central and southwest MN where
confidence is higher that a Warning will not be needed.

Temperatures will plummet an impressive 40-50F behind the strong
frontal passage, bottoming out in the upper teens and low 20s
Tuesday morning. The Canadian high slides east during the day
Tuesday, allowing temperatures to gradually rebound under weak
southeasterly flow through mid-week.

By Thursday, an upper level trough is progged to bring
widespread precipitation across the West Coast. Thursday night
into Friday, associated lee cyclogenesis results in a powerful
storm system over the Plains with increased northerly flow of
moisture and anomalously warm temperatures across the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Mean PWATs across ensemble guidance range
from ~0.7" to 0.9" (roughly the 95th percentile compared to
climatology for mid March). There continues to be strong
agreement in a deepening surface low around 975-980 hPa that
tracks into SW MN by Friday evening. The combination of CAPE
values around 750-1000 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates of
7-8.5 C/km, certainly favors the development of some
thunderstorms with potential for lower-end severe hazards. As
surface flow wraps around the low, parameters for convective
development will be slightly favored across SE MN and western
WI. This is highlighted well by the CSU-MLP day 6 severe
probability forecast. By Saturday morning, the mean track takes
the low right over the Twin Cities metro. This could really cut
down on QPF values on Saturday as drier air wraps around in on
the south side of the low. As the low occludes over Lake
Superior, scattered wrap-around rain/snow showers are possible
late Saturday into Sunday. Much cooler air will funnel in behind
this system, with highs hovering right around freezing on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

West/southwest winds will increase and could gust to 20 kts at
times this afternoon, before subsiding and backing more
south/southwest tonight. FEW-SCT high clouds will pass overhead
through the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Record and Forecast Highs for Monday...

Monday 3/10:
    | Forecast | Record | Year of Record
----------------------------------------
MSP |    68    |  66    | 2015, 2012
STC |    71    |  61    | 2015
EAU |    68    |  64    | 2012

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-
     Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Borghoff
CLIMATE...WFO MPX