852
FXUS63 KMPX 011055
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
555 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Following yesterday`s warm temperatures, a cold front will
  bring more seasonable highs for the first day of October
  through this weekend.

- Other than some isolated showers Saturday, much of the
  forecast period looks dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Current satellite imagery as of 2:00am shows large area of clouds
associated with an upper level system over the Central Plains. The
associated mid to upper level forcing remains well to our south,
moving west to east across NE and IA, where showers and storms
are ongoing. The northern extent of this shower/storm activity
will move west to east across IA through the morning hours. Far
southern MN, areas like Fairmont to Albert Lea could see light
to moderate rain showers through the morning. Meanwhile, current
surface analysis shows a frontal boundary extending SW to NE
across eastern SD and into northern MN. Ahead of this boundary,
areas of dense fog developed across western WI where a Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect through 7:00am. This boundary will
continue pushing SE through the day. A more seasonable and
drier airmass will settle in across the forecast in it`s wake.
Current NBM guidance paints the area with dew point temps
dropping into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon and evening.
This coupled with high temperatures in the low to middle 60s
will make it feel like Fall. With skies slowly becoming clear
during the evening and overnight timeframe, temperatures will
respond with Friday morning lows dropping into the upper 30s to
low 40s across the forecast area (low to middle 40s across the
metro). Surface high pressure will be locked in over the region
on Friday, Fall-like conditions will continue. High
temperatures will be 3-7 degrees below the seasonal average for
the beginning of October, topping out in the low 60s.

By Saturday, the next shortwave trough will move west to east across
southern Canada. A tongue of mid to upper level moisture will extend
south along an associated surface boundary that will move west to
east across the region. A low-end chance (10-30%) of showers will be
possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Nonetheless, expect
scattered to broken clouds on Saturday with high temperatures back
to around or slightly above the seasonal average (mid to upper 60s).
On Sunday, expect another noticeable drop in dew point temperatures,
dropping back into the upper 30s with high temperatures in the low
to middle 60s.

.NEXT WEEK...

On Monday, expect another cool, Fall-like morning as you head out
the door. Morning low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper
30s (low 40s for metro and western MN). Quiet and fair weather
conditions will be the theme through the remainder of the forecast
period. Strong upper level ridge will dominate the upper flow
pattern over western CONUS. This will promote predominately zonal
flow across the region. Temperatures starting on Tuesday will become
slightly above the seasonal average with generally dry conditions
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A quiet TAF period is expected with dissipating clouds and VFR
for all locations after morning fog burns away, mainly in
RNH/EAU. The SCT/BKN upper level clouds will move off as high
pressure moves in, with winds at 320-350 at 10G20kts during the
daylight hours. Gusts drop back after sunset as skies clear out,
with a much lower chance for morning fog as dew points will be
much lower by the end of the period.

KMSP...Omitted any mention of fog early as it is expected to
dissipate quickly now that our winds have picked up and
especially once daylight arrives.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for Chisago.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...TDH