929
FXUS63 KMPX 281159
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
559 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very windy today with northwest winds gusting up to 55 mph.
  Window for strongest winds at any location will be with a
  frontal passage plus 90 minutes beyond that.

- Below normal-temperatures Saturday.

- Rain and snow possible Monday through Tuesday night, though
  total QPF amounts in excess of 0.25" are trending to the
  southeast of the MPX area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

At 3am, there was a 987mb getting ready to move into the Boundary
Waters. There is a double cold front structure with this low, with
one cold front extending from the low, southwest to Fargo. This will
bring a switch in winds from the southwest over to the west. The
second cold front extends west from the low across southern Canada
and this is the one that will be more of your classic blue norther,
with strong northwest winds and crashing temperatures in its wake.
As for the winds, we have all the ingredients for a strong wind
event lining up. With the frontal passage, we`ll see MSLP rises on
the order of 8mb in 2 hours, steepening low level lapse rates and
strong mixing with the CAA, and a nearly uniform wind direction
through the depth of the troposphere. It`s really just a question of
how efficient we`ll be at mixing winds down to the surface. Of the
50 EPS members, 35 of them have a max gust at MSP over 50 mph today,
with 6 going over 60 mph. In addition, the 28.06 HRRR shows some
pockets of 60 mph wind gusts (likely tied to convection with the
frontal passage), so it`s certainly within reason that we see some
isolated peak wind gusts over 60 mph today. We have left our wind
headlines at an Advisory, but depending on how wind gusts trend in
the morning behind the secondary cold front across NoDak and
northwest MN, would not be surprised if we end up needing to almost
treat the cold front like a squall line, with a more short-fused
High Wind Warning needed for the frontal passage plus 90 minutes or
so behind it.

As for precip today, dry air will be a big limiting factor, but
forecast soundings show cloud depths of 2-3k feet with the frontal
passage, which may be just enough to generate some brief, though
intense graupel showers. However, the short duration of any
potential precip means accumulations/impacts will be negligible.

Behind this cold front, we get a rather intense, though brief cold
snap for Saturday. We expect highs on Saturday to only be in the 20s
(roughly 5 to 10 degrees below normal), flanked by lows in the
single digits and teens Friday night and Saturday night. Sunday will
see rising heights aloft and southerly winds at the surface, with
highs quickly returning to the 40s, with 50s in southwest MN.

For next week, we`re still anticipating a large storm system to work
across the central CONUS, but it`s looking increasingly likely that
the bulk of the moisture and impacts with this system will remain
off to our south and east. There will be three pieces of energy to
track. The first will come Monday as the remnants of the upper low
currently west of LA ejects out across the Plains. The main impact
of this is it will send the first surge of moisture north out of the
Gulf, with PWATs locally increasing to about 0.75", or about 200% of
normal. Not only is the wave filling in, but there continues to be a
good deal of spread with just how far north it will track, but we
did see a slight expansion of chance PoPs Monday night, though it`s
questionable if this will be able to do much more than produce
drizzle. Tuesday brings the main energy, but this will be split
between a southern stream and a northern stream wave. The southern
stream wave will remain to our south and is what will send a surface
low through KS and MO. A northern stream wave will drop through the
northern Plains on northwest flow, eventually hooking up with the
southern stream wave over the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Our best
chance for precip with all of this will come with the northern
stream wave Tuesday into Tuesday night. With all of that going on,
we`ve seen a distinct downward trend in expected precipitation, with
the latest WPC QPF showing 7-day QPF values of 0.25" getting about
as far northwest as an Albert Lea to Eau Claire line.

As for temperatures, Monday will be the warmest day next week as
we`ll be warm sectored. Just how warm we get will come down the
placement of a cold front and extent of cloud cover. It does appear
we`ll have a good chance at topping 50 and along and south of the I-
94 corridor. After Monday, a more northerly flow will knock highs
back the rest of the week, but we`re looking at highs still running
5 to 10 degrees above normal the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Surface winds become northwest early this morning and mixing
depth begins to deepen. By mid morning, strong winds 25-30 kts
with gusts around 45 kts will develop and continue into mid
afternoon before easing. Low VFR or MVFR cigs are likely for
much of Friday. A few gusts up to 50 kts can`t be ruled out late
morning hours. VFR cigs return this evening with SKC expected by
Sat AM. Winds decrease this evening into Saturday AM.

KMSP...South winds will begin veering northwest overnight with a
rapid ramp up of speeds mid morning Friday. Northwest gusts of
45-50 kts are possible in a 3-4 hour window around midday.
Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NNW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-
     Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-
     Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BPH