763
FXUS63 KMPX 092341
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
641 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers & a few thunderstorms this evening across
  eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible Friday afternoon.

- Rain likely Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Strong southerly flow on the back side of departing high
pressure has allowed temperatures to warm into the 70s across
most of the area this afternoon. Winds have gusted up to 30 mph
at times as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold
front approaching from the Dakotas, & it is ahead of this front
where a band of scattered showers & thunderstorms is expected to
develop this evening. Increasing high cloud cover spreading out
of the Dakotas indicates that stronger forcing aloft is
arriving as an upper level low dips southwards out of Manitoba
& western Ontario. Satellite imagery still does not show
anything the way of low convective cloud development, so we are
still likely a few hours away from these showers developing,
which will likely limit any precipitation to eastern Minnesota
& western Wisconsin this evening. Rainfall amounts will be
light, only on the order of 0.1-0.25", & the best chances for a
few rumbles of thunder are across western Wisconsin when the
strongest forcing arrives later tonight.

Winds become northwesterly overnight behind the front with
drier air moving back into the region as another Canadian high
pressure slides over the region. Winds are likely to gust
around 20 mph at times behind the front, & deep mixing could
allow for RH values to fall below 30% during the afternoon -
especially across southern & south-central Minnesota. This
could allow for a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions
to develop, especially as fuels across the area have been
priming from the antecedent dry conditions & recent frost/freeze.
Other than the fire weather concerns, very pleasant conditions
are expected through saturday with sunny skies & seasonable
temperatures.

Rain chances return for the latter half of the weekend, as the
jest stream becomes more amplified over the central CONUS &
develops a powerful fall system over the Canadian Prairies.
Although we will remain well to the south of the strongest
forcing, where accumulating snow is expected across southern
canada, a swath of widespread rain is expected southwards along
the cold front into the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. We
won`t have enough moisture flow into the region to make this a
"soaking" rain, but the heaviest rainfall amounts are expected
closest to the forcing across western Minnesota, where ensemble
guidances shows medium to high probabilities for at least 0.50"
of rain (50-80%). Rain is still expected farther east, but
ensemble guidance suggests lighter amounts more in the
0.10-0.25" range. The jest stream remains active across the
northern tier of the CONUS through the week, so additional
rainfall chances are possible mid to late next week. Guidance
remains spread with the track & timing of any waves in the
jetstream though, so hard to mention anything more than low-end
chances for rain at this point. Ensemble guidance does show a
high likelihood of rising heights later in the week, meaning
we`ll likely see a continued trends towards warmer than normal
temperatures for mid-October.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Line of showers and storms has formed across central MN, just
east of STC and northwest of MSP. This line will progress east
this evening, impacting MSP, RNH, and eventually EAU. Another
batch of showers and potential thunderstorms should develop
behind the initial line overnight across far eastern MN and WI.
Clearing will be quick on the heels of the precip as winds turn
northwest.

KMSP...TS appears far enough northwest to just mention SHRA in
the TAF for now, but will monitor additional development to the
south. May need to amend for TS, but the probability is low
enough to keep it out for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind SE 15G25kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff