300
FXUS63 KMPX 061124
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
624 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today in Minnesota.

- Highs warming back into the 80s by the end the work week.

- No changes to the warm and dry weather pattern over the next
  2 weeks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For most of the area this morning skies are clear, but a secondary
cold front moving into central MN is bringing with it some northwest
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and a batch of cyclonic flow stratus.
This stratus will sag south through the morning, getting a little
south of the I-94 corridor. However, it will not be a cloudy day,
with the clouds expected to be cleared out by the time the Vikings
wrap up their game in London and the last of the athletes are
finishing up the Twin Cities Marathon. It will be a cooler day than
what we saw Saturday, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid
60s, but we will have some breezy northwest winds through the day.
These cooler temperatures will help keep afternoon RHs from really
tanking, but we`ll still have elevated fire weather concerns. We
have issued an SPS for most of our MN counties, where we`ll have
wind gusts in the 20s and RH values falling to between 25 and 35
percent.

For the next week, upper ridging will be dominating the center of
North America, so very little in the way of exciting weather is
expected. We`ll start off on a chilly note, with all but the core of
the Twin Cities metro falling into the 30s Monday morning, but it
does not look to be the first widespread killing freeze of the
season, which we see on average between the last week of September
and second week of October. Winds will have a significant easterly
component through Wednesday, which will keep highs in the 60s and
70s, but Thursday, those winds become southerly, which will bring
the return of widespread highs in the 80s. There`s quite a bit of
uncertainty with highs on Friday as we`ll be seeing a shallow cold
front sagging south across MN during the day. Ahead of that front,
we`ll likely see highs up into the mid 80s, putting record highs in
jeopardy, but if you find yourself on the other side of the front,
highs will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler. Because of that front,
there`s quite a bit a spread for Friday highs. Like all the fronts
we`ve seen recently, there`s little upper forcing and plenty of dry
air with it, so it looks to be another dry front. Though there is
some small hope for rain Saturday in western WI behind the front as
a baroclinic zone tightens up aloft, it`s a small chance at best.

Going into next week, upper ridging returns to the central CONUS,
which means more dry and unseasonably warm weather, with those 80s
at the end of the upcoming work week likely not our last shot at
seeing 80 this year. Looking at the EPS/GEPS/GEFS, our rain chances
for the next 2 weeks look minimal and we`re likely looking at the
final week of October before we even start getting some whispers of
rain chances returning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Stratus will continue to sag south, likely getting to the MKT
area before sliding off to the east. We`ll have to deal with the
mostly low VFR stratus for the first few hours, but based on RAP
soundings, these clouds should be even out of WI by 18z.
Northwest winds will be strongest this morning, with a gradual
weakening trend through the afternoon. Overnight, light
northwest winds will become west to west-southwest.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E/SE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Douglas-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG