955
FXUS63 KMPX 041102
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
602 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke continues for western
  Wisconsin on Monday.

- Scattered rain shower chances today across western and
  central Minnesota.

- Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances will arrive mid to
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Scattered showers continue across central and southern Minnesota
early this Monday morning. Precipitation rates are light & amounts
will be limited to a few hundredths but there is sensible weather
occurring. These should taper off by day break before reigniting
this afternoon given the uptick in diurnal surface heating. CAMs
show the redevelopment this afternoon & even a few isolated
thunderstorms. Fortunately, these will be very isolated & pose only
a localized lightning threat. The mid-level trough will push further
southeast today however the rain chances never really approach the
core Twin Cities metro. Rainfall amounts through Monday night should
be between tenth to a quarter inch with a few localized areas in the
0.30 to 0.50" range. High temperatures top out in the upper 70s to
lower 80s today with lows back into the 60s overnight.

By Tuesday, our stubborn surface high pressure centered over the
Great Lakes will have shifted far enough east to lose influence on
the weather pattern across the Upper Midwest. Southeast winds will
increase across western Minnesota Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to
25 mph likely. Elsewhere, highs will warm into the upper 70s to mid
80s & the Td`s will climb deeper into the 60s when compared to the
last several days. Wednesday through next weekend will see a gradual
increase in heat & humidity as south-southwesterly flow increases
across the Plains and Midwest. The upper level pattern will feature
an impressive 600dm h500 ridge centers over the Four Corners region.
This will build into the Upper Midwest and provide a quick rebound
into mid-Summer weather. Highs will range from the mid 80s to the
low 90s - peaking Friday & Saturday. The bigger change will be the
increase in dew point temperatures. Td values increase into the
upper 60s on Wednesday and lower to mid 70s (!) Thursday into the
weekend. These values when combined with our sfc temperatures will
push our heat indices well into the 90s for the second half of the
week. This means we`ll likely see some heat advisory products in
addition by the end of the work week.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist nearly every day
after Tuesday as any perturbations within the zonal mid-level flow
will tap into the diurnal heating & instability pool. There is not
enough confidence to deviate from the NBM PoPs during this period.
NBM features 20 to 40 PoPs across S/C MN & W WI each
afternoon/evening as have guidance varies in timing and placement of
these weak disturbances that are often driven by mesoscale features
that global guidance doesn`t resolve. The best chances for any
legitimate severe weather appear to Friday through Sunday as models
bring a rather strong shortwave from the Pacific Northwest into the
Northern Plains. The timing & location of this feature vary model to
model yet all of them feature this wave. Guidance eventually brings
through the cold front associated with the shortwave late weekend
into early next week. This will return zonal or even slightly NWerly
flow & usher in another (brief) break from humidity before ridging
returns mid-month. There is still a spread of solutions with some
ensemble members favoring a stronger wave & colder/drier push while
some others feature a weaker wave & more a of step down into the mid
80s vs upper 80s. Heat & humidity return along with our daily
thunderstorm chances after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A few isolated showers linger across portions of central
Minnesota this morning. These will remain VFR before dissipating
by the afternoon hours. Isolated showers may redevelop late
afternoon into the evening across central Minnesota. I
continued to use a PROB30 at KSTC to address the potential.
Everywhere else is too low of confidence to include in TAF.
Winds are generally southeasterly at around 5kts or less. These
will increase up to 10kts after sunrise before decreasing after
sunset. Some uncertainty on how far west the wildfire smoke
pushes back today/tonight so left it out of MN sites.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-20 kts.
THU...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH