824
FXUS63 KMPX 161752
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1252 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers expected this morning into early afternoon before
  temperatures warm well above normal through Friday.

- Rain possible Friday and Saturday night as a low pressure
  system develops over the Midwest. Cooler air will follow to
  end the weekend.

- Fluctuating temperatures for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The atmosphere remains very moist tonight, particularly in
southwest MN where mist/fog is reducing visibilities. A Dense
Fog Advisory remains in effect for our counties along and south
of the Buffalo Ridge. Visibilities currently aren`t meeting
dense fog criteria (1/4 mile) but isolated patches of 1/4 mile
are still possible through sunrise. A band of scattered showers
has also started to form from southwest MN to north-central IA
within a zone of strong 925 hPa WAA. This precip basically
denotes an effective warm front and the front will continue to
lift northeast through this morning. The showers should become
more widespread as time goes on, particularly over central MN
and western WI. A rumble of thunder may even be possible. While
the rain won`t be significant, us being south of the warm front
will mean we warm to well above normal today through Friday.
Highs each day are forecast to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s
while lows tonight for south-central MN may struggle to drop
below 60. Drier air will also arrive from the south, helping to
give some breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon over southern
MN. Winds will also increase over MN as a LLJ strengthens ahead
of an approaching upper-level trough. Gusts are forecast to
reach 20-30 MPH this morning into this afternoon.

A few isolated to scattered showers are possible in western MN
tonight as a pressure trough slides west to east through MN/WI.
Precip activity is expected to remain mostly subdued until late
Friday morning into the afternoon when daytime heating can help.
Highest chances (20-40%) for rain would thus be from southern
MN into western WI. Highs on Saturday will still be relatively
mild across our east with mid to upper 60s forecast. But, a low
pressure system will begin to spin-up over the Midwest Saturday
night into Sunday, dragging a stronger cold front with it. This
will cool temperatures back down towards normal for the end of
the weekend. Guidance, particularly the GFS, also develops a
deformation band of rain on the backside of the low over our
CWA. Currently have 15-30% PoPs over southeast MN and western
WI, but these may need to be shifted west and increased in
future forecasts. Also, wind gusts may need to be increased
Saturday night as a nice compact northerly LLJ also forms to the
west of the low.

Temperature look to warm slightly Monday as the upper-level
pattern becomes progressive, allow for ridging to briefly move
overhead. Deterministic models are in better agreement now (as
compared to yesterday) about an amplified shortwave diving into
the central CONUS later Monday into Tuesday. This feature acts
to form a surface cyclone somewhere over the Great
Lakes/Midwest, though differences in low placement and track
exist. Still, we do have a 20-40% chance of seeing rain
throughout Tuesday before the low travel east. More certain is a
return towards normal temperatures through mid-week as we
should firmly placed within the CAA behind the cyclone. We`ll
have to see how long temperatures remain close to normal,
though, as long-range guidance favors developing another upper-
level ridge over the western CONUS the second half of next week.
This feature should inevitably move east and likely bring us
another round of warmer weather towards the end of October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Low stratus continues to overspread much of MN/WI into the
afternoon hours today but clearing is ever-so-slowly trying to
develop from SW MN eastward. This part of MN is where the warm
front has nudged northward, thus weak showers (and even a few
rumbles of thunder) continue north of the front for eastern MN
into western WI. This small swath of showers will persist until
around 21z, then rising ceilings and potentially some partial
clearing will develop for all sites late this afternoon into
this evening. As the warm front pushes ENE, strong nocturnal low
level jetting will develop which will contribute to strong winds
within the boundary layer, thus forcing LLWS mention for most
sites (mainly away from far western MN). Breezy/gusty S to SW
winds will then continue through the day Friday. Lowered
ceilings redevelop on Friday during the late morning to
afternoon hours, with possibly a few intermittent showers
developing/ It is enough of a signal to warrant PROB30 mention
for the showers but they will likely have little to no impact on
flight conditions.

KMSP...Showers around initialization time continue so have added
its mention on the prevailing line. Can`t entirely rule out a
rumble of thunder as those showers glide across the area but
chances are quite low so have omitted CB/TS mention. Showers
look to diminish by 21z, with rising ceilings through the MVFR
range to VFR during the afternoon-evening push. LLWS conditions
expected from late this evening through the early morning hours,
diminishing by the Friday morning push as surface winds
increase. Chances for showers slowly increase during the day
tomorrow, such that a late-TAF PROB30 warrants inclusion, but
little to no impacts are expected other than a lowering of
ceilings to near 5 kft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G20kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC