798
FXUS63 KMPX 042351
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
551 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Arctic front will push through the area by this evening,
  resulting in diminishing snow showers but continued strong
  winds which will reduce visibilities through this evening.

- Lighter winds expected for Thursday but continued cold
  temperatures will keep wind chills near and below zero.

- Much warmer temperatures expected over the weekend, followed
  by another cooldown early-to-mid next week.

- Little to no additional precipitation expected through at
  least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024


Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a strong arctic cold
front has dropped as far south as the MN/IA border, associated
with a low pressure center just north of Lake Superior. While
the front continues to exit the area, snow showers in its wake
will persist within the strong wind regime, resulting in reduced
visibilities, particularly in western MN. While snow squalls
are not expected as the bands of snow diminish in intensity and
size, powdery-type snowfall in strong winds may well be enough
to cause intermittent visibility reductions through the rest of
the daylight hours this afternoon. Going into this evening, as
the snowfall diminishes and wind speeds lower, winter weather
hazards will also diminish to just dangerously cold wind chills.
Minimum wind chill values will range from -10 to -20 degrees,
so while not reaching extreme cold criteria, the wind chills
will be dangerously cold through the overnight hours.

The cold air advection behind the front will peak tonight into
tomorrow as early morning lows Thursday plummet to the single
digits followed by highs only in the teens (potentially into
the lower 20s in western WI). As the arctic high pressure
airmass center shifts from south-central Canada into the lower
Mississippi River Valley Thursday night into Friday, a deep
warmer southwesterly flow will take place which will produce a
rebound in temperatures for the weekend. Highs will climb into
the 20s area-wide on Friday followed by highs into the upper 30s
to mid 40s over the weekend. Partly to mostly clear skies are
expected Thursday through the weekend with the passage of the
high pressure airmass and any fronts remaining well away from
the Upper Mississippi River Valley region.

The next organized low pressure system will slide across the
region Sunday into Monday, taking a track over northern-
central MN into northern WI, with the main swath of moisture
associated with the system on its northern fringes, thus keeping
precipitation mainly over the northern half of MN into the
Great Lakes. While a few rain/snow showers are possible late
Sunday through Monday, nothing significant is expected. Dry
weather will then prevail for the middle portion of next week
with another cooldown behind that weekend system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Strong northwesterly winds persist across all TAF sites, with
gusts frequently reaching 35-40kts. Wind speeds/gusts will
gradually diminish during the late overnight hours onward
(roughly around midnight), dropping to 10kts or less during the
day tomorrow, although some gusts will still range 15-20kts at
times. BKN-OVC MVFR ceilings through tonight, with partial
clearing to bring back VFR conditions overnight through
tomorrow.

KMSP...Strong northwesterly winds continue to produce sustained
speeds 25-30kts with gusts 35-40kts through tonight. Speed will
gradually diminish by 05Z to around 15G30kts. A few hours later,
the cigs should be gone with SCT mid-level clouds remaining.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Anoka-Benton-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-
     Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-
     Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...PV