235
FXUS63 KMPX 191418
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
818 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills as low as -30 to
  -40 through Tuesday.

- A few chances for light snow midweek, amounting to less than
  half an inch.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Updated MSP-specific aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Looking at surface observations across the region shows the
bitter cold Arctic air has set in. Temperatures across southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin are presently 10 to 15 degrees
below zero and expected to continue to drop for a few more
hours. Factor in the breezy northwest winds and we have apparent
temperatures 25 to 35 degrees below zero. At daybreak,
conditions will `warm` ever-so-slightly, but it will be
virtually impossible to notice with apparent temps remaining in
the 15 to 25 below zero range. We can expect this pattern to
continue through Tuesday before a front brings relatively warmer
temperatures to the region. With all of this in mind, cold
weather headlines remain unchanged. We continue to expect periods
in the afternoon where we warm above the cold advisory criteria
(especially if you are out in the sun). The coldest air of the
period will arrive late tonight in west central Minnesota where
the Extreme Cold Warning is in effect. The likelihood for
widespread & extended durations of wind chills below -40 is more
likely across northern Minnesota where the snowpack is deeper.

Taking a look at sky cover, this is one of those cases where if
you have clouds, you likely have very fine flurries. Most of the
region remains cloudless because it is too cold to saturate and
the air lacks moisture. Where clouds are able to form, flurries
and/or very fine snow is likely. The better chance for snow
arrives after the Arctic air departs midweek. A pattern
favorable for clippers moves in and we enter a 36 hour period
with slight chance (20%) PoPs. This will likely end up being a
high PoP, low QPF event as QPF remains very light, with only a
few hundredths. Most would see less than half an inch of snow.
The NBM continues to undercut the chance for PoPs Wednesday into
Thursday, so in collaboration with neighboring offices, we
increased likelihood for seeing on- and- off snow Wednesday
night into Thursday. With forecast highs in the mid 20s,
Wednesday`s high temperatures will feel like a heat wave
compared to our current temps. Thursday will be slightly cooler
in the upper teens, but the 20s and potentially low 30s will
return by the end of the workweek into the weekend. To summarize
precipitation chances, hope is slim in any plowable snow in the
near future.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 808 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

We`ll have northwest winds and mostly clear skies this period.
Only change is that the northwest winds will settle down some,
with the gusts going away this evening.

KMSP...We are in an unique situation this morning where we have
basically a surface based cirrus cloud deck that is leading to
MVFR cigs/vis with flurries. We`re just getting into daylight
hours where the Day Snow-Fog RGB satellite product is usable,
and it does indeed show these streaky cirrus features across
southeastern Minnesota. Added a TEMPO group to account for this
for the time being, but will reassess with the 18z TAFs.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
WED...Chc MVFR/IFR with -SN. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Douglas-
     Morrison-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday
     for Douglas-Morrison-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for Anoka-Benton-
     Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac
     Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
     Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-
     Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-
     Yellow Medicine.
WI...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dye
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...MPG/Dye