401
FXUS63 KMPX 102313
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
613 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today and Saturday, elevated fire weather conditions with low
  humidity and breezy conditions.

- Sunday, breezy again with scattered rain showers. However,
  widespread, soaking rain is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Today and tonight, high pressure was centered across the
MN/Dakota border, with clear skies and light winds across the
region. Areas east of I-35 had more of a northwesterly wind due
to a tighter pressure gradient, but areas to the west were
seeing decreasing winds this afternoon. The airmass was dry,
with afternoon RH values in the upper 20s to low 30s. Overnight
winds will decrease and skies will remain clear, so lows will
fall into the 30s.

Saturday and Sunday, dry air will continue on Saturday, only
this time southeast winds on the back side of the surface high
pressure will increase leading to elevated fire weather
conditions once again. On Saturday night, warm air advection
ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to chances for
showers and thunderstorms across western Minnesota, but the lack
of instability will be the limiting factor. SPC has general
thunder in place for Saturday night. On sunday, these rain
chances will drift eastward, but the lack of moisture means
scattered showers and storms, with most of the precipitation
falling across northern Minnesota. Sunday will also have breezy
southerly winds of the cold front, and northwest winds behind
it.

Looking ahead to next week, forecast guidance continue to show a
brief area of high pressure building in for Monday and Tuesday.
Meanwhile southwest flow will develop, bringing larger storm
systems and rain chances across the Upper Midwest for the middle
and end of next week. As the previous discussion mentioned, the
timing and placement of these systems continues to vary, so
overall the confidence in rain during any time period is low as
indicated by the small chances (10 to 30 percent).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

High pressure moves overhead tonight with clear skies and calm
winds. Cross-over temps are down near freezing for fog tonight
and it looks unlikely it will cool down enough, even at EAU, to
get any radiational fog tonight. We`ll see increasing southeast
winds through the day on Saturday, with high clouds increasing
from west to east through the day as well.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA likely aftn/evening. Wind SE 15-20G30kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG