773
FXUS63 KMPX 101115
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
615 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  across southeastern MN into western WI today.

- Wildfire smoke moves back in tonight and Monday.

- Potentially active again late week and next weekend as a
  frontal boundary gets hung up in the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas of fog have developed across southern MN and western WI
with visibilities in some cases dropping to 1/4 mile. With clear
skies and light or calm winds in place, the fog should become
more widespread through dawn. However, any one location probably
won`t see enough continuous dense fog to justify a Dense Fog
Advisory attm.

Later today an upper low will lift north and heights will rise
slightly. A shortwave will be steered northeast to the Upper
Midwest while instability builds across southeastern MN and WI.
A few thunderstorms could develop late morning through mid
afternoon, with a much greater concentration to the southeast
where more heavy rainfall is expected.

Smoke will begin to make a return across western MN tonight,
then should engulf the rest of the area Monday and Monday night.
Poor air quality will result and the Air Quality Advisory
continues for MN through noon Tuesday.

A potent shortwave trough will largely remain in southern
Canada, but a trough axis will swing across the Upper Midwest
Monday night and early Tuesday. A few showers or thunderstorms
may accompany this wave, primarily central MN, with better
chances to the north.

Ridging will build back over the Rockies mid to late week. Some
thunderstorms are possible along a warm front late week, then
again along a slow moving trailing cold front this weekend.
Confidence is naturally low at this range, as are the PoPs for
now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas of dense fog will improve quickly this morning as mid and
high level clouds increase. Showers with some TS are expected to
advance into southern MN and western WI later this morning,
lingering into early afternoon. Otherwise, clearing this evening
with patchy fog potentially redeveloping late.

KMSP...Showers should remain east today, but there is an outside
chance of seeing something around midday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff