284
AWUS01 KWNH 060118
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-060715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0875
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 PM EDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast AL...FL Panhandle...Southwest to
Northeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060117Z - 060715Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
with very heavy rainfall rates is expected going into the
overnight hours. Given the wet antecedent conditions and
additional rainfall, there will be a renewed threat for scattered
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The evening GOES-E WV suite shows a fairly
well-defined shortwave impulse across eastern AL which is expected
to gradually lift off to the northeast across central to northeast
GA going through the overnight hours. This energy is expected to
interact with a quasi-stationary front draped across the western
FL Panhandle and adjacent areas of southern GA for a renewed axis
of at least some clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

An increase in warm air advection along with deeper layer ascent
from the shortwave dynamics, with favorable right-entrance region
upper-jet support, will be key in facilitating these areas of
convection over the next several hours. A gradual increase in
moisture and instability transport near and poleward of the front
will also favor very heavy rainfall rates. MLCAPE values along and
just south of the front are locally as high as 1500 to 2000 J/kg,
with PWs across the region as high as 2.0 to 2.25 inches.

This environment will support some 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates
with the more organized convective cells. Since the steering flow
overall is quite weak, the cell-motions are expected to be rather
slow which will be conducive for allowing for some of these cells
to attain sufficient levels of persistence/duration for
potentially enhanced rainfall totals.

The latest hires model guidance is rather inconsistent on the
placement and magnitude of where the heavier rainfall potential
will set up, but based on the latest radar and satellite trends,
areas of southeast AL, the FL Panhandle and southwest GA will be
most likely to see short-term impacts since this is where the
greater instability and forcing is situated. Radar imagery already
shows multiple slow-moving convective cells beginning to locally
produce heavy rainfall totals. However, by later this evening and
overnight as the shortwave energy lifts off to the northeast, the
threat of heavy rainfall may extend up across central to northeast
GA.

Additional rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 4+ inches will be
expected with some of these stronger convective cells that
materialize, and given the wet antecedent conditions, there will
be a renewed threat for scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34248257 33188200 32478217 31738252 31038310
            30518399 30438505 30578592 30958643 31598628
            33158500 34238371