994
AWUS01 KWNH 131909
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131908Z - 140100Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
rates coupled with moist antecedent conditions and elevated
streamflows will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows a substantial
amount of cloud cover across southeast AZ and southwest NM in
association with broken areas of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, a bit more clearing and stronger diurnal heating as a
result is seen across central AZ into some adjacent areas of
west-central NM. This includes portions of the Mogollon Rim.

The latest RAP analysis does show as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE pooling near and just southwest of the Mogollon Rim, and
this coupled with additional boundary layer heating should help
support the development and expansion of showers and thunderstorms
across the orographically favored higher terrain and especially
the south-facing slopes.

In general, much of the region is seeing at least some deeper
layer ascent via favorable right-entrance region upper-jet
dynamics. This is occurring downstream of an amplifying trough and
associated closed low along the West Coast. This forcing will
complement the uptick in instability and orographics for a more
expansive convective footprint across central and eastern AZ and
into western NM going through the afternoon hours.

The convective activity over southeast AZ and southwest NM has at
least some weak support from mid-level vort energy traversing the
region, and while this will tend to mitigate the instability
profiles in the short-term, it will favor there being some
differential heating boundaries that could support convective
initiation around the periphery of the deeper cloud canopy.

Many of the 12Z HREF members and other experimental NSSL-driven
MPAS solutions support there being an uptick in instability-driven
convection across areas of south-central AZ including the Mogollon
Rim in particular between 21Z and 00Z. Given the instability and
moderate levels of effective bulk shear, the uptick in convection
may include some organization with sustainably strong updrafts.
Given the anomalously moist environment, some rainfall rates of up
to 1.5+ inches/hour will be possible.

Some 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals may occur locally where any
repeating cell-activity materializes and also into the terrain
with more favorable orographics. This coupled with moist
antecedent conditions and locally elevated streamflows from recent
rainfall may pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding this afternoon. This will include potential impacts
to arroyos and burn scar locations.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35900735 35510682 34780671 33510733 31940754
            31230863 31211049 31611134 32761208 33341260
            34111268 34771208 34961080 34660940 34920852
            35740795