435
AWUS01 KWNH 111901
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into western/central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111900Z - 120100Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 01Z (7
PM MDT/6 PM MST) across southeastern AZ into western and central
NM. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected where
showers/thunderstorms align and train, and isolated spot storm
totals near 2 inches will be possible.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor imagery showed a lead shortwave
trough extending from western CO into northern NM tracking toward
the east, associated with light to occasionally moderate rainfall.
Southeast of this feature, visible imagery showed a mixture of
clouds and mostly clear skies from southeastern AZ into central
NM. The environment across the region contained highly anomalous
moisture, with contributions from the tropical east Pacific,
represented by +3 to +4 standardized anomalies of PWAT. While
there was drier air aloft, the 18Z sounding from TUS contained a
PWAT of 1.66 inches (well above the climo max for mid-October) and
250 J/kg MLCAPE with a stable warm layer centered near 800 mb.
Where better heating is occurring across the region, instability
is likely a bit higher with 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data showing 500+
J/kg over much of southeastern AZ.

Continued heating over the next few hours is expected to support
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg later this afternoon over southeastern AZ,
with values closer to 500 J/kg into portions of NM. While a few
thunderstorms have been noted within a few disorganized cells
moving into western NM, additional development is anticipated with
better heating and weak forcing ahead of the aforementioned
shortwave and broader height falls ahead of a large upper trough
moving into the western U.S. In addition, an organizing upper jet
near 300 mb is expected to provide some added support in the form
of divergence and diffluence within its right entrance region over
the southern AZ/NM border.

As cells increase in coverage, mean WSW flow could promote some
repeating and brief training of cells into the early evening
hours. Expected hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected
which may result in some isolated flash flood issues atop
sensitive terrain, normally dry washes and/or remnant burn scars
widely scattered across the region.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36230587 36050524 34620519 32930553 32410667
            31830775 31230822 31160914 31091108 31621185
            32611165 33581051 34680912 35800739