415
AWUS01 KWNH 150525
FFGMPD
NMZ000-151123-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1198
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas affected...southern/central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150523Z - 151123Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are developing over
south-central New Mexico near Truth or Consequences. Areas of 0.5
inch/hr rates were already being observed.  These rates could
increase to around 1-1.5 inch/hr at times while moving northward
across the state.  Isolated flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms were developing in the southern Rio
Grande Valley of New Mexico over the past hour.  These cells were
drifting northward at around 25 knots.  They were also embedded in
a relatively narrow axis of weak to moderate instability (1000
J/kg SBCAPE) and moisture (1-1.2 inch PW values), supporting brief
heavy rainfall.  The orientation of this convection (with movement
parallel to the moist/unstable axis) was promoting localized
training/repeating cells, with rain rates peaking at around
0.5-0.75 inch/hr per MRMS.  Low-level convergence on the nose of
southeasterly 850mb flow across the eastern Plains was also
contributing to ascent along the moist axis in tandem with subtle
height falls from a larger-scale system centered over California.

Each of these factors all point to a gradual increase in
convective coverage across the discussion area over the next few
hours, with storms drifting northward toward the central part of
the state.  Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates could occur on a spotty
basis.  FFG thresholds exhibit spots of thresholds as low as 1
inch/hr in the discussion area, suggesting isolated potential for
excessive runoff.  Additionally, a few burn scars in the vicinity
may support excessive runoff on a localized basis.

Eventually, the combination of convective overturning and
nocturnal boundary layer stabilization will lead to a decrease in
convective coverage (and attendant flash flood potential).
Low-level convergence may also slacken toward 10Z as 850mb flow
veers to more southerly across the eastern Plains, decreasing
convective potential as well.  These processes will take a few
hours to play out, with isolated flash flood potential persisting
through at least 10Z/4a Mountain Time.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36710485 36150431 34220501 32500611 31880695
            32030839 33680809 35790721 36470604