456
AWUS01 KWNH 111904
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-112333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0909
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111903Z - 112333Z

Summary...Pulse convection with heavy rain is moving towards a
more hydrologically sensitive area over the next few hours.
Hourly amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible, which
could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Thunderstorms across NC are moving inland near and
ahead of a surface trough/convergence zone.  Despite its forward
progression, hourly amounts to 3" -- if not higher -- have been
seen with this activity per WSR-88D radar estimates.  While
activity is generally moving northward, some cells are showing
more chaotic motion, leading to occasional mergers which is aiding
precipitation efficiency.  Precipitable water values are 2-2.25"
per GPS data.  ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg exists in the region.
Effective bulk shear is shy of 25 kts, leading to its pulse
character.

Of concern is a swath of the Piedmont which has received 300-600%
of their average weekly rainfall from Asheville northeast through
Durham to just across the VA border.  This wet week should have
made the soils more sensitive, and shows up as a lower area of
flash flood guidance values.  Isolated to widely scattered flash
flood concerns should be mostly within this wet area of the
Piedmont or in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37167743 36617798 36107755 35667712 35567698
            35017741 34627867 35417994 36268095 36918014
            37107883