930
AWUS01 KWNH 092135
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-100334-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
535 PM EDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Areas affected...northern Florida and far southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092134Z - 100334Z

Summary...Scattered convection continues to pose an isolated flash
flood threat while migrating eastward across the discussion area.
Another 1-3 inches of rainfall are possible through 03Z/11p EST
tonight.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, a gradual uptick in
convective coverage has been noted across the western and central
Florida Panhandle.  This increase in convective coverage is likely
tied to a few factors, including: 1) subtle geopotential height
falls ahead of an advancing mid-level wave near the ArkLaTex, 2)
the inland advection of warm/moist air that can support more
surface-based convection, and 3) continued convergence on the nose
of 30-kt southwesterly low-level flow over the central Gulf.  The
increase in coverage along with modest training/repeating has
resulted in a few areas of 3 inch rainfall totals since 15Z, with
much of that tally happening in a 2-hour window.  Rainfall was
wetting soils and resulting in lower FFG thresholds especially in
and north of the I-10 corridor in the central Florida Panhandle
(near the Tallahassee area).  These factors suggest an uptick in
flash flood potential in the short term.

The meso-to-synoptic scenario should continue to foster areas of
heavy rainfall through 03Z.  Deep moist convergence should remain
focused along the Florida Panhandle for the next 3-6 hours as
forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level wave approaches
the region.  Additional convection should migrate eastward into
southeastern Georgia and northeastern Florida over time.
Localized 3 inch totals through 03Z remain possible beneath
training/repeating convective axes.  Isolated instances of flash
flooding are expected as a result.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31318282 30958161 29748222 29658522 29978586
            30658635 30988469